Few thought the Los Angeles Rams or Cleveland Browns would go this far, and Buffalo Bills was much more successful than one might expect. The Baltimore Ravens returned to the fight, a pair of 40-something quarterbacks will face each other in New Orleans and everyone is (or should be) afraid of the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Wheat has been separated from the chaff, and the divisional round will further narrow things down.
Here’s a look at the NFL playoff clashes this weekend. Unlike the regular season, choices are not made against the point spread.
Saturday matches
Los Angeles Rams in Green Bay Packers, 4:35 pm, Fox
Line: Packers -6,5 | Total: 45.5
Much will be said about the relationship between Coach Sean McVay of Rams and Coach Matt LaFleur of Packers. LaFleur served as McVay’s offensive coordinator in 2017, and they were offensive assistants together on the Washington team from 2010 to 2013. They are key figures in an offensive revolution, but if you’re waiting for a high-scoring case, you can try another games.
Green Bay led the NFL in scoring thanks to a late season from Aaron Rodgers, who put him in contention for the Most Valuable Player Award. His success came with the help of Aaron Jones ‘race (1,459 yards from scrimmage), Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s vertical threat (20.9 yards per reception) and Davante Adams’ brilliance (115 receptions, 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns)
But if there’s a team designed to slow the Packers, it’s the Rams.
Few saves can match Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd’s relentless passing race, and although Rodgers doesn’t easily fumble, the few times he has shown weakness in recent years have come when he is under consistent pressure. Complicating matters is the absence of left-wing player David Bakhtiari, whose season ended with a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament in week 16.
Jones could be neutralized by a Rams 7 forward, who took third place in the NFL in race defense – yes, Donald leads there too. Green Bay facing the threat of Valdes-Scantling’s home run is risky thanks to its propensity for missed passes.
This makes the confrontation more intriguing like that between cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Adams, who may present themselves as the best and most underestimated current NFL receiver.
“You know me, I would like to go against anyone and have the good-on-the-good as much as possible,” Adams said this week when asked about Ramsey.
On neutral ground and with equal health, this could result in a Rams turn. But Green Bay struggled hard to gain the advantage of playing at home during the playoffs, and that hard work could be the team’s lifeline. It is expected to be around 30 degrees at the start of the game in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Rams quarterback Jared Goff is only a few weeks away from surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand. He seemed to struggle with his grip last week, and the cold, combined with a good enough Packers defense, should give Green Bay all the advantage it needs. To choose: Packers
Baltimore Ravens in Buffalo Bills, 8:15 pm, NBC
Line: -2,5 Accounts | Total: 50
The Ravens haven’t lost a game since December 2. The Bills haven’t lost any since November 15th. Both have weatherproof offenses and defenses capable of playing game-changing. And they both overcame some psychological weight in the wild card round – Buffalo achieved his first postseason victory since the 1995 season; Ravens’ Lamar Jackson won a playoff game for the first time.
There are a myriad of reasons to pull for both teams – and a persistent belief that any team that advances is just signing up to lose to Kansas City in the next round – but it’s hard to believe that Buffalo, even at home, can slow down the operation Baltimore juggernaut games.
When Ravens hit the “reset button” after a lull in the middle of the season, the team concentrated almost all of their attack on quarterback Lamar Jackson’s race and running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. This led Baltimore to run 230 yards or more in four of the last five games of the regular season, including a ridiculous 404 – the fifth longest running yard in NFL history – in a Week 17 victory over Cincinnati. This continued into the wild card round, with the Ravens running 236 yards.
Buffalo came in 17th in race defense this season, but that rating would have been worse if the teams hadn’t been forced to pass to keep up with Bill’s electrical attack. This shows the fact that Buffalo ranked among the NFL’s six worst running saves in yards per load (4.6) and allowed accelerated touchdowns (21).
Bill’s defense has several players capable of causing serious disruption, but a lot of that comes in the secondary. On a cold day in Orchard Park, NY, the Ravens could concentrate on running the ball, and it is difficult to see the Bills being able to stop them. Buffalo’s attack cannot be counted, even against a solid Ravens defense, but Baltimore must control the clock and the game. To choose: Ravens
Sunday games
Cleveland Browns in Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 pm, CBS
Line: Chiefs -10 | Total: 56.5
For all intents and purposes, Cleveland advanced to the divisional round after just over 13 minutes of their wild card game against Pittsburgh. A playoff game rarely goes sideways so quickly, with the Browns’ defense forcing three quick turns and their attack dealing with the end of the deal, taking a 28-0 lead with 1 minute and 56 seconds remaining in the first quarter.
The Browns’ 48-37 victory should not be considered a fluke – Cleveland has its best team since coach Bill Belichick was wandering the sideline in the mid-1990s – but taking advantage of Ben Roethlisberger’s mistakes is very different to force Patrick Mahomes on some, so expecting a repeat of that quick start would be foolish.
Kansas City can recover Clyde Edwards-Helaire from a frightening-looking hip injury in week 15. Even if he fails, a combination of Le’Veon Bell and Damien Williams provides enough balance for Mahomes to be able to destroy Cleveland secondary with deep passes for wide receiver Tyreek Hill and low shots for tight end Travis Kelce.
Cleveland’s attack occasionally showed some explosion – last week’s effort was the post-season game with the highest score in the franchise since the 1954 NFL championship – and the Browns can chew the clock thanks to the excellent combination of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But even Baker Mayfield’s most fervent believers should struggle to face him in a direct confrontation with Mahomes. The Browns are not soft, but they probably can’t do much to get in the way of Kansas City. To choose: Bosses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in New Orleans Saints, 18:40, Fox
Line: Santos -3 | Total: 52
The oldest remaining defender in the AFC playoffs is Baker Mayfield, who will not turn 26 until April. Three of the four participants at this conference were chosen in the first round of the 2018 draft. When any of the four started a game in the NFL, Tom Brady had already won five Super Bowls and Drew Brees was approaching Dan Marino’s pass yard record. career.
The young players have largely reinvented the defender’s position, using their mobility to strengthen their passes while contributing to an explosion of scoring throughout the league. Still, Brady and Brees, museum-quality examples from a forgotten era of pocket passers, continue, leading serious Super Bowl competitors in the second week of the playoffs.
In fact, this game should not be defined only by its famous quarterbacks. The Saints de Brees had a lot of attack this season – running back Alvin Kamara led the NFL with 21 touchdowns in total – but had the same defense, which Dennis Allen, the team’s defensive coordinator, turned into a powerhouse.
Tampa Bay also has a young and talented defender – support from that side of the ball undoubtedly played an important role in Brady’s decision to sign there – and in recent weeks, the Buccaneers have started to really click on the attack. The wealth of team receiving options – wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown; the tight end Rob Gronkowski – led Brady to his best season of statistics since 2017 and one of the best of his career.
The regular season meetings between these teams were ridiculous. Santos beat them both, with a combined score of 72-26. And they are playing at home, which plays an important role for them, even if the impact is lessened by the small crowds that the team can receive. The Buccaneers are a team good enough to be respected – in many ways, this looks like a direct confrontation – but the Saints are rightly few favorites in what could be the most competitive game of the weekend. To choose: Santos.
All times are from the east.