It is fitting that in a year in which the fates of various NFL teams in the playoffs will be decided in the final game of the season, the MVP race is culminating in an exciting fashion with year-end heroism that can define who leaves with the prestigious premium.
And entering Week 17, there is a new favorite to win the MVP. Our panel of nine analysts voted for the top 10 players in the MVP race so far, and then we use these nine sets of ratings to determine our top five overall candidates, using the Heisman Trophy scale for each rating. Based on the vote in this final round, we agree with the general consensus around the league that it is a dispute between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. But six of our nine panelists put the Packers’ quarterback first.
The 2020 MVP will likely be decided between two of the league’s best defenders, but there are several others who have created a compelling case. Here is a look at our final MVP watch ratings.
Note: Our panel includes Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Mina Kimes, Jason Reid, Kevin Seifert and Field Yates. Odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
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The first five | It has been lost
2020 Statistics: 4,059 passing yards, 44 TDs, 5 interceptions (plus 145 running yards and 3 running TDs) in 15 games
First place votes: 6 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: -260
Rodgers stopped being put on alert after the Packers chose Jordan Love in April to be favorite MVP eight months later. The Green Bay quarterback has been in crisis since Week 12, throwing at least three touchdowns in four of the Packers’ last five wins. Rodgers is now on his way to winning his third MVP award after a dominant prime-time performance against Tennessee on Sunday, where he won his decisive victory (four touchdowns). It was also his 13th game this season with a rating of passers or over 100, which is tied with most games in a single season in the Super Bowl era, an achievement that he also won the first time he was named the most valuable player in the league in 2011
Rodgers made it happen with fewer weapons around him, while leading the league in touchdown passes (44) and passer rank (119.4), ranking second in percentage completion (70.3%) and coming in fifth place in passing yards. With yet another victory against Chicago in Week 17, the Packers will guarantee the best NFC seed and goodbye in the first round. If Rodgers has not yet established himself as the MVP, helping the Packers to accomplish this feat will do so.
While Mahomes may be the most valuable player for the league in general and the face of the NFL, Rodgers is the most critical part of his team’s success. That’s why he ends this season as the likely MVP.
2020 Statistics: 4,740 passing yards, 38 TDs, 6 interceptions (plus 308 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs) in 15 games
First place votes: 3 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +210
Although Mahomes was excellent at launching the Chiefs’ quarterback to a 14-1 record, there aren’t many categories in which the Super Bowl champion beat Rodgers. In short, the Packers quarterback overcame Mahomes at the end of the game, and a bad week for the Chiefs’ QB against the Falcons, coupled with the fact that Rodgers exploded on Sunday Night Football could be the nail in the coffin. Mahomes’ three interceptions against Miami in week 14 also do not help her case. Nor was his low 5.4-yard career attempted against the Saints.
Kansas City QB would need to dominate the Chiefs’ regular season final against the Chargers to possibly regain first place, but it appears that coach Andy Reid is inclined to give the starters a rest before trying to repeat the title race next month. Of course, none of this means that the 25-year-old is not tremendous, incredible or any other adjective that anyone can use to describe his game in 2020. Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards and routinely comes out wild, head – scratches, miraculous games that leave the rest of the league in awe of your talents. Rodgers just got a little better this season.
2020 Statistics: 4,320 passing yards, 34 TDs, 9 interceptions (plus 418 running yards and 8 running TDs) in 15 games
Five main votes: 9 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +1200
No quarterback saw a greater increase in total CBR from 2019 (49.4) to 2020 (81.6) than Allen, according to ESPN Stats & Information. This helped the Bills establish supremacy in AFC East with the first division title since 1995 and the Patriots’ first season victory in 20 years.
Allen is probably way behind Rodgers and Mahomes to win the MVP, but he is no less deserving of being in the conversation after his remarkable turnaround, completing 68% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards and helping Buffalo to win his victories in a single season since 1993. Allen put an exclamation point in his fantastic 2020 by throwing 320 yards and four touchdowns in a prime-time victory over the Patriots, which earned him his eighth 300-yard pass pass of the season. His 34 touchdown passes also set a new franchise record in a single season.
2020 Statistics: 1,777 running yards, 15 TDs (plus 114 receiving yards) in 15 games
Five main votes: 5 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +5000
Henry is approaching his second running title in a row and is 223 yards from becoming the eighth player to join the prestigious 2,000 yard racing club. He averaged 5.9 yards per load in December, the biggest draw in NFL history among players with at least 300 running attempts. And what is perhaps most impressive is that, despite his workload, Henry fumbled only once this season.
The Titans are 10-5 with a chance to stop AFC South and a playoff offer because of the command that Henry received in almost every game he played in 2020. He has at least 75 running yards in 12 of his 15 games, and he only once ran to less than 60.
2020 Statistics: 4,031 passing yards, 38 TDs, 13 interceptions (plus 484 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs) in 15 games
Five main votes: 5 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +10000
Wilson didn’t exactly return to his early season MVP form to beat the Rams and capture the NFC West, but he didn’t let Aaron Donald destroy the Seahawks’ game plan and played well enough to stay in the conversation. Seattle’s defense put Wilson in some difficult situations, in which he needed to win late wins, and this must be taken into context when assessing the burden he was asked to carry in 2020. What hurts his candidacy, however, is his 13 interceptions, tied for third place in the NFL.
It has been lost
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams: Donald did his best to keep Wilson uncomfortable in week 16, scoring eight pressures and a bag. His 13.5 sacks are in second place, behind TJ Watt (15), the only player who can stand in the way of Donald’s third Defensive Player of the Year award since 2017. Donald is one of the league’s best defenders and the anchor of a defense Rams that ranks the top three in efficiency.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints: Henry gets all the love, but don’t forget the season that Kamara set up, with 1,688 yards of scrimmage (the third) and 21 TDs in total (six more than the Titans’ MVP contender). Without three of his first four receivers, Santos ran everything through Kamara in a victory on Christmas Day and, man, he did it. Kamara ran for six TDs against Minnesota, breaking the record for a single NFL game. And in the process, he set the New Orleans franchise record for touchdowns in one season.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Currently with a 150-1 chance of winning the MVP, Brady has already fulfilled one of the great expectations that emerged when he signed with Tampa Bay in March. For the first time since 2007, the Bucs go into the playoffs after Brady scored four touchdowns and set a career record of 348 passing yards in the first half in a Lions rout. After hitting a wall in November, and questions were raised about the viability of the Bucs’ attack in the postseason, Brady straightened the ship and will have his team playing in January.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: By helping Kansas City win the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs in Week 16, Kelce managed seven passes for 98 yards. He is the first tight end to have two seasons of 100 catches and has set the record of yards in a single season for a tight end with 1,467 to 15 games.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are in an offensive slump with their season at stake and could miss the playoffs if Murray (leg injury) is unable to make it in week 17. He will likely be close to becoming the first player to launch for 4,000 yards and run to 1,000, but its impact on Arizona’s success – especially with its feet – was felt throughout 2020. The Cardinals are 0-5 when Murray hits seven times or less in a game and 8-2 when he runs eight or more times.
Also receiving votes
These players received at least one vote from the top 10 of our nine experts. Remember that, in most cases, these votes are not in the top five.
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Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
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TJ Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
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Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
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Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
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DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
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Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
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Jalen Ramsey, CB, Los Angeles Rams
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Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins