Of course, Matt Stafford’s blockbuster came along quickly and smoothly. But don’t be fooled. The rest of the quarterback market will be slower, with ownership and management groups in Houston and Green Bay yet to face everything that awaits them, and other teams interested in those quarterbacks have clung to their own current holders in the meantime.
There will be ripples – more like waves – of transactions in the most important position in all professional sports during the off-season. Any move will have corollaries to that – call it trickle-down tradenomics, if you prefer: Deshaun Watson going to, say, the Jets, generating an inevitable move from Sam Darnold to somewhere like, say, the 49ers, who would then move Jimmy Garoppolo elsewhere.
And this is just the first level, which could very well include Aaron Rodgers as well, so that the Packers don’t placate him either financially or in terms of putting together / maintaining a list that he considers truly worthy of the Super Bowl. Sorting out Watson’s situation and monitoring Rodgers – as many teams do – will take some time, and not all teams will be willing to wait in the end. But some will certainly do so.
As long as there are deadlocks at the top of the market, life can get even more complicated for guys like Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton – who already had to deal with unique forces in the pandemic market a year ago, as they ended up discovering new homes. It is very likely to be the case again in 2021.
Then there is the unusual assessment process for this class of college quarterbacks, some of whom have barely played and none of which the teams have managed to maintain as they normally would in the season, or outside. The combination is very different, travel to eat and drink on the team’s premises is out of the question and the Pro Days have also been changed. Fewer scouts and executives on the ground. Less information than usual. Even more projections than normal (better to have a top analytical team).
This complicates things, but in the end expect at least five passers in the first round and possibly four in the top 10; some of those teams that end up selecting such a high QB will be among those who were already in Stafford, Watson, et al. Don’t worry … this will be another crazy year of quarterback activities. It will only require more patience than the Stafford / Goff exchange did.
The curious dolphin co-coordinators move
The Dolphins coaching staff remains something to keep an eye on. The constant turnover at critical points – particularly in the offensive team – has been less than ideal and the promotion of two co-offensive coordinators from within also seems conducive to potential discord.
Brian Flores did a lot of good things by establishing a base in Miami, and the team is going in the right direction overall, but the tendency to move and try a little too hard is hard to miss. Whether it’s a New England thing or not, at some point more stability is needed, especially if they really want to build around Tua or some other young QB to be won over later. And if they want to enter the Deshaun Watson rodeo, as so many have suggested they would, promoting Bill O’Brien’s former assistant and former game assistant George Godsey is a strange way of doing that. This can be an obstacle for a QB with a no-trade clause and ample leverage.
Jags to covet Ravens’ defenders
Keep an eye on the Jacksonville Jaguars for several Ravens at the free agency. His new defense, led by former Ravens assistant Joe Cullen as his new coordinator, will reward many of the same body types and characteristics that have worked so well for Wink Martindale in Baltimore.
Only Jacksonville has a lot of space on the edge and the owner is prepared to spend a lot for new coach Urban Meyer and it will be difficult for the Ravens to compete to retain many (some?) Of their abundance of defenders who are not under contract for next season . This is a diverse list led by Matt Judon, who played for the franchise brand in 2020 and is a versatile superv advocate. Tyus Bowser was among the leaders of the NFL league in interceptions by a linebacker. It has a good rate of return in pressures / setbacks and is robust enough to set the limit and is only 25 years old with an advantage; some believe it could land in the range of $ 10 million a year, if not more.
Pernell McPhee and Jihad Ward were great low-cost, one-year adjustments for the Ravens, but they can see the action of the Jags as well. One guy who won’t be going to Jacksonville is former Jags franchise player Yannick Ngakoue, who fought in Baltimore and left $ 6 million on the table just to leave Jacksonville ahead of the season.
Free agents facing uncertain market
There is much less information from the beginning of February about the free agent market this year for a number of reasons. To begin with, no one knows what the limit will be, with expert estimates ranging from $ 195 million to $ 175 million, obviously a huge chasm. This put a pause in the market for the most part, adulteration is minimal, and with the combination essentially a virtual event in 2021, which further restricts the normal modes of pre-free agency flirtations.
Many agents and executives I spoke with believe that we could see deployment much slower than normal. Of course, there were and will be more negotiations concluded before the start of the league year. These are largely fixed costs. But controlling the exact sweet spot of certain players in the free agency is more difficult than ever, with projections even on the best players fluctuating depending on who you talk to.