If the Houston Texans think they will end up giving in and changing quarterback Deshaun Watson, there is no better time than the present.
They are a franchise without a choice in the first round, and their most likely trading partner (the Jets) has the second overall choice, as well as an additional first this year and in 2022 from Jamal Adams’ exchange with the Seattle Seahawks.
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If Texans wait until after the draft and eventually decide to give up as soon as Watson makes it clear that he will resist (which is a very real possibility), the offers will not look so attractive.
Watson’s presence stands out in the first round of this year’s draft, especially since what the Jets do is likely to dictate the rest of the order in an important way.
So how will Jets general manager Joe Douglas approach this? What will teams like the Giants and Eagles do to fill in the gaps in the attack?
Here is our latest first-round projection from this year’s draft:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson.
Yes.
** REPLACEMENT **
Texans get: QB Sam Darnold, two first round choices in 2021 (No. 2, No. 23), second round choice in 2021, second round choice in 2022, third round choice in 2023
Jets receive: QB Deshaun Watson, 2021 choice of fifth round
2. Houston Texans (via Jets): QB Zach Wilson, BYU.
The Jets may have to include Quinnen Williams, but Joe Douglas has enough energy to do that anyway if Houston really picks up the phone. So, of course, if Texans change their superstar quarterback, they need to find the next one. Yes, they recovered Sam Darnold in this trade, but while he could still have his talent unlocked and become a solid player, that is no guarantee. Texans need to do what they can to find their next Watson. Many seem to think that Wilson has that kind of potential.
3. Miami Dolphins: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU.
If Dolphins don’t stay with Watson, they can follow several directions here. If you intend to stay with Tua Tagovailoa, you should surround him with a better support cast. Chase has star potential.
4. Atlanta Falcons: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State.
It’s time to plan your life after Matt Ryan. Fields, Trey Lance or Mac Jones are possibilities.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon.
The easiest choice other than Trevor Lawrence, assuming Sewell gets to the fifth choice. Bengals need help on the offensive line so badly.
6. Philadelphia Eagles: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida.
If Chase is still here, he is probably the choice. If he leaves, the Eagles will have a hard time overtaking Pitts, which is one of the most unique prospects in a long time. He’s a tight end in name only. If he were simply a wide receiver, he would also be in the top 10.
7. Detroit Lions: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State.
Lions have many needs, but they are in full rebuild and should simply choose the best player available. Parsons has significant talent, even though linebackers have been devalued throughout the league.
8. Carolina Panthers: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota.
The Panthers did not hide that they want an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater. Lance may need some development, so he can sit behind Bridgewater for a year and take over in 2022.
9. Denver Broncos: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech.
If the Broncos believes in Drew Lock, his biggest need is in the cornerback, and Farley is the best consensus player in that position this year.
10. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama.
If Farley is 1A in the cornerback, call Surtain 1B. Cowboys desperately need to face the cornerback.
11. New York giants: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama.
The Giants having a chance to choose between Waddle and DeVonta Smith is basically the best scenario. It may even be worthwhile to trade some choices with Mac Jones still on the board for underserved quarterback teams. But unfortunately, Waddle has a Tyreek Hill-style skill set and would add a dimension to the Giants attack that has been missing since Odell Beckham left.
** REPLACEMENT **
Patriots get: choice of first round (No. 12)
49ers get: choose the first round (No. 15), choose 2021 for the fourth round, choose 2022 for the second round
12. New England Patriots (via 49ers): QB Mac Jones, Alabama.
Cam Newton is not the solution. Nor Jarrett Stidham. Bill Belichick obviously has connections with Nick Saban and is as aware of what Jones can do as anyone. He is the only caliber quarterback of the first round remaining on the board and the Patriots need to improve their lives after Tom Brady.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern.
It’s simple: Chargers need better protection for Justin Herbert.
14. Minnesota Vikings: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami.
The Yannick Ngakoue experiment failed last year. Vikings need to put all the talent they can in their weak defense.
15. San Francisco 49ers (via Patriots): CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina.
The 49ers are about to lose their entire body of cornerbacks to the free agency. Easy choice.
16. Arizona Cardinals: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama.
It may seem crazy to think that Smith, the winner of the Heisman Trophy, could fall so far, but there are some doubts about its size and the board played in a way that the chosen teams would not make the wide receiver a priority. This would be the best scenario for the Cardinals, who need to get better help from DeAndre Hopkins, especially if Larry Fitzgerald retires.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami.
Your rush pass is weak. So Phillips, Azeez Ojulari or Kwity Paye make sense here.
18. Miami Dolphins: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson.
The Dolphins have been updated on the wide receiver at No. 3, and continue to carry weapons with the best running back in this draft class.
19. Washington Football Team: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota.
Washington does not know who his defender will be, but he will have an impressive collection of weapons by adding Bateman to a group that already has Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson.
20. Chicago Bears: OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC.
The Bears attack the quarterbacks and the best receivers in this draft, so they turn their attention to their weak offensive line. Vera-Tucker has the potential to play tackle or guard.
21. Indianapolis Colts: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida.
The Colts need to get Carson Wentz weapons outside, especially if TY Hilton leaves as a free agent. Toney is a demon of speed and would be a fun replacement.
22. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan.
The race for the Titans pass is miserable. Paye is a project, but it has a high ceiling.
23. Houston Texans (via Jets): EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia.
Its shares have been rising since the end of the college football season. Texans need to replace JJ Watt’s rushed pass production.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma.
Maurkice Pouncey has retired and Humphrey can immediately enter as his replacement on the offensive line.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: T Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech.
The Jaguars need to improve protection in front of Lawrence, and Darrisaw can enter as his new left tackle.
26. Cleveland Browns: S Trevon Moehrig, TCU.
Cleveland has an obvious need for safety, even with Grant Delpit coming back from injury, and Moehrig may be the only talent in the first round of safety this year.
27. Baltimore Ravens: EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State.
The Ravens can lose Yannick Ngakoue and Matthew Judon to the free agency and need to develop their next dominant pass rusher. Oweh has a high ceiling.
28. New Orleans Saints: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame.
The Saints’ linebackers (other than Demario Davis) were a disaster last year. Owusu-Koramoah is an exciting player and elite athlete.
29. Green Bay Packers: WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
It was time for the Packers to give Aaron Rodgers some more weapons, and Moore is a fun and fast person who can line up in places.
30. Buffalo Bills: OT Teven Jenkins, State of Oklahoma.
Bills has a need in the offensive line, especially if Daryl Williams ends up leaving as a free agent. Jenkins can replace him in the right attack.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Zaven Collins, Tulsa.
Collins is a fun and versatile person who can help in the game and as a linebacker out of the ball. Bosses have a need in that area.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington.
The Buccaneers’ defensive line is aging, especially in the countryside, and could use an infusion of youth and talent at a cheap cost. Onwuzurike is an intriguing prospect.
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