If the numbers don’t lie, then Mac Jones is an opportunity for an elite quarterback. Right? He completed 77.4% of his passes at a phenomenal average of 11.2 yards per attempt with 41 touchdowns, four interceptions and just 10 sacks throughout the season in Alabama’s perfect 13-0 campaign.
Having watched his film, I can safely say – he is not an elite prospect. But before explaining the reasons, let’s not leave anything distorted. I respect Jones for the work he did in place of an injured Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, and there is no doubt that he deserves praise for the season he has compiled about Alabama’s most explosive attack in the history of the famous program on its way to the national title.
He belongs somewhere relatively early in the 2021 project. His film is full of impressive and accurate pitches for all levels of the field, and every now and then one of these pitches happened after he navigated chaos right in his pocket. Jones has precision and pocket skills to his advantage, and are important features to have in the toolbox when a defender enters the NFL.
The question with Jones is – how soon should he be chosen? Top half of the first round? In the first round? Day 2? I lean towards the latter. Let me explain why.
The numbers can lie and the context is the polygraph test.
Of Jones’ 424 attempts this season, 145 of them were launched to receivers on or behind the scrimmage line, representing a rate of 34.1%. This is high. Very high.
See how the first quarterbacks chosen in the last two drafts compare in this statistical category:
- Joe Burrow (LSU ’19) – 16.6%
- Your Tagovailoa (Alabama 19) – 31.7%
- Justin herbert (Oregon 19) – 28.9%
- Jordan Love (Utah State 19) – 28.5%
- Kyler Murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 31.2%
- Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 22.1%
- Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 25.7%
It was impossible not to marvel at the skill position talent in Alabama this season – and really for the past five years or so – skill position talent that routinely took a two-yard drag route and turned it into a 50-yard touchdown or the man’s coverage exploded below the sideline to gain field inversion.
Of Jones’ 4,500 passing yards, more than half (53.5%) went through yards after receipt. And, absolutely, YAC can sometimes be aided by a super-precise pass or a defender playing for the right receiver at the pace. Jones did these things in 2020 for the Crimson Tide. But check out how your YAC percentage of 53.5 compares to the same group of recent passers from the first round:
- Joe Burrow (LSU ’19) – 45.6%
- Your Tagovailoa (Alabama 19) – 60.7%
- Justin herbert (Oregon 19) – 52.7%
- Jordan Love (Utah State 19) – 43.7%
- Kyler Murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 48.3%
- Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 50.4%
- Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 51.5%
Alabama quarterbacks Jones and Tagovailoa, with the highest rates, suggest it is a scam. And it sure is. But I also don’t feel so good about Tagovailoa’s future after what he showed as a rookie compared to what I felt before the 2020 draft. His perfect environment with Crimson Tide, slightly above average athletics and arm talent limited were my biggest concerns about Tagovailoa as a candidate, although I love its accuracy, anticipation and decision making.
And who describes many of these concerns?
Jones. In fact, I believe he put more high-caliber pocket drifts in the film than Tagovailoa did before his injury last season, but he is not that athletic, and his talent in his arm is not that impressive.
In 2020, only 11.3% of Jones’ pass attempts were made out of pocket – again, scheme – but that low number indicates his lack of playing ability, a skill becoming increasingly important to the modern quarterback. For comparison, Justin Fields, who many rightly criticize for some strange improvisations, threw 21.5% of his passes out of pocket friendly limits this season.
Could Jones land on a good team at the end of the first round, sit down for a season, and finally become a successful passer? Yes. But he will need a lot of resources around him. Robust offensive line, deep and dynamic group of receivers and an innovative offensive coordinator who will not ask Jones to make many pitches from the closed window and will accentuate the screen and the RPO games. Take out any of these elements and Jones will likely fall apart because of his lack of supreme physical characteristics.
Now, for me, that doesn’t describe a quarterback I want to choose in the first round. Round 2 or Round 3? That seems right. But, after the season and career that Jones had, there is a good chance he will be selected among the top 32 choices in late April.