Only two teams remain in the NFL Playoffs: The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Everyone else can start thinking about the future, for 2021.
Now, all but two choices for this year’s order have been defined and will be determined after the Super Bowl. There is a lot of intrigue ahead between now and April’s recruitment, and much of it will have to do with the movement of defenders through the league.
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Matthew Stafford to be negotiated with Detroit Lions, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees may retire, Deshaun Watson would you like to be traded, and who knows what the Eagles will do to Carson Wentz.
The falling quarterback dominoes often dictate how the early part of the NFL Draft unfolds.
This is no different this year.
Who will choose defenders early?
Here is our last simulation sketch:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson.
Nothing to see here. Welcome to the NFL, Urban Meyer.
2. New York Jets: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State.
The prospect of the Jets staying with Sam Darnold and choosing Penei Sewell here or switching to more draft options should not be ruled out. Nor is the possibility that they will use their treasure trove of goods to get Deshaun Watson. But for now, choosing a quarterback here makes sense, and Fields seems the best option than BYU’s Zach Wilson, even if it’s close.
3. Miami Dolphins: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama.
Like the Jets, the Dolphins are a serious candidate for Watson if he is traded. Probably the leader of the club. Otherwise, they need to decide if Your Tagovailoa is the guy, and to put him in a position of success, they simply need better weapons. There are some doubts about Smith’s size, but the Heisman Trophy winner looks like a potential star.
4. Atlanta Falcons: QB Zach Wilson, BYU.
Falcons are an ideal situation for a young defender – Matt Ryan won’t be going anywhere for at least another year, so Wilson can learn behind him while being taught by new coach Arthur Smith, who saved Ryan Tannehill’s career.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: T Penei Sewell, Oregon.
If Sewell falls to 5th place, the Bengals can run a parade. Even if he doesn’t, they simply need to summon an offensive striker here. Sewell must protect Joe Burrow’s blind side for the next decade.
6. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU.
The Eagles must choose between two of the Smith trio, Chase or Jaylen Waddle. It would be hard to go wrong with any of them – although don’t let Howie Roseman choose the wrong wide receiver. It’s kind of his thing. Chase did not play in 2020, but was totally dominant in 2019, even surpassing Justin Jefferson … who already looks like an NFL star.
7. Detroit Lions: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State.
This became an obvious target for Lions when they announced (on Saturday) that they would be replacing quarterback Matthew Stafford. It would not make much sense for them to sign up or seek a veteran option at a free agency, as they are still a long way from competing. Lance did not play in 2020, but he was simply stellar in 2019 and is a legitimate double threat weapon. He made 28 touchdowns in 2019 – without interceptions. In addition, he ran for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns.
8. Carolina Panthers: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama.
This is a potential quarterback spot, depending on how Carolina feels about Teddy Bridgewater after a year, but they may also lose Curtis Samuel to a free agency and Waddle would even be upgraded against him. Waddle is extremely explosive and can be moved throughout the attack. The Panthers would have the best NFL wide receiver trio with Waddle, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson.
9. Denver Broncos: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State.
This can boil down to how Denver feels about Drew Lock. With only Mac Jones as a legitimate defender option here, the Broncos instead focus on the best player still available – and in a position of need. Parsons is a side-by-side ace.
10. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama.
The best cornerback in this year’s draft will join his former teammate (Trevon Diggs) to form a promising double cornerback. Cowboys desperately need secondary help.
11. New York Giants: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida.
The Giants need offensive weapons for Daniel Jones and pass defensive rushers, and this class of pass-rusher is not considered particularly impressive at the top. The first three receivers are already off the board here, but Pitts is a perfectly good consolation prize. He is a physical (6-6, 245) and athletic freak who is more of a wide receiver-tight end hybrid. This may sound like Evan Engram, but make no mistake – Pitts is the best prospect. The Giants can go to a wide receiver at a free agency.
12. San Francisco 49ers: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech.
49ers can lose their top three cornerbacks to the free agency and have a host of other impending free agents to look after. Farley is one of the top 10 talents and can be classified immediately as a starter.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: T Rashawn Slater, Northwestern.
Like the Bengals, the Chargers really have no choice but to choose the best potential player on the board. Justin Herbert needs better protection.
14. Minnesota Vikings: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami.
He didn’t play in 2020, but Rousseau had 15.5 sacks in 2019 and Minnesota has a particularly weak passing race.
15. New England Patriots: QB Mac Jones, Alabama.
The Patriots’ quarterback situation somehow looks even more dire in 2021 than it did last year. Cam Newton was a mess and Jarrett Stidham was not good enough. Bill Belichick can certainly get information about Nick Saban’s Jones, and if he gets the support of his old friend, this could be the real Patriots replacement for Tom Brady.
16. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan.
The Cardinals will bring Chandler Jones back next season, but he could use better support for passes around him. Paye is a somewhat crude prospect, but the talent is intriguing.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: DT Christian Barmore, Alabama.
This is not a class rich in defensive tackle talent, but Barmore helped himself at the end of the season and ended up with eight sacks. Raiders need an upgrade within their defensive line.
18. Miami Dolphins: T Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech.
The Dolphins’ offensive line is a work in progress. It wouldn’t be surprising if they invested in a free agency, but until that happens, suppose they try to upgrade the tackle or guard with their choice in the first round.
19. Washington Football Team: T Samuel Cosmi, Texas.
Washington’s defense was surprisingly good in 2020, but its attack still has a few holes that need to be filled around who plays as a defender in 2021. The offensive line is a particular area of weakness.
20. Chicago Bears: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota.
Perhaps the Bears will consider a quarterback here, although none of the possibilities available are particularly inspiring. Chicago may lose Allen Robinson at the free agency (if he is not marked as a franchise) and Bateman is the next best prospective wide receiver player in this class.
21. Indianapolis Colts: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida.
TY Hilton is a free agent and is declining anyway. Toney is one of the fastest receivers in this class and would add a serious weapon to the exterior that will be missing especially if Hilton does not return.
22. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia.
Ojulari had 9.5 sacks for Georgia last season. The Titans made it to the playoffs despite having one of the least productive pass races in the NFL. Edge rusher is a no-brainer here.
23. New York Jets: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina.
The Jets will have plenty of room to update the squad in a free agency and may face the quarterback as number 2. Their cornerback group may have been the least talented in the NFL last season. Drawing Horn would help a lot to fix this.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
Ben Roethlisberger may be retiring, and the Steelers don’t have much space to use on possible free agents. The smart move would be to hire a low-budget veteran (Ryan Fitzpatrick?) As a stopgap while a newcomer like Trask develops.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: T Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
The Jaguars will need to build a better offensive line around Trevor Lawrence. This is a good place to start.
26. Cleveland Browns: CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
The Browns probably saw a lot of Wade from neighboring Ohio. He would join another OSU alumnus in Denzel Ward as a cornerback.
27. Baltimore Ravens: EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas.
The Ravens can lose Matthew Judon in the free agency and Ossai (29 tackles for defeat in the last two years) is a good value here.
28. Saints from New Orleans: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame.
Off-ball linebackers are simply no longer selected, and Owusu-Koramoah (6-1, 215) is slightly smaller, but is extremely athletic and a real ace who would be a fat update linebacker for New Orleans.
29. Green Bay Packers: WR Terrace Marshall, LSU.
Perhaps this year the Packers will actually get Aaron Rodgers some pass capture updates. Marshall would be an intriguing compliment to Davante Adams and is more of a top wide receiver perspective coming out of LSU. They seem to grow on trees in Baton Rouge.
30. Buffalo Bills: G. Wyatt Davis, Ohio State.
Most consider Davis to be the best potential player in this year’s recruiting class, and the Bills could use an upgrade within their offensive line.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami.
Buccaneers need help praising Jason Pierre-Paul, who is 32 years old and is likely to begin to show signs of decline at some point. Phillips is a perfect candidate, but he is intriguing as a pass broker and was once considered the number one high school candidate in the country.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC.
The Chiefs’ squad is composed enough that they can simply catch whoever they think the best prospect on the board is in the first round. They could use a new starter inside the offensive line and Vera-Tucker should be able to fit in immediately.
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