1a. On Sunday in New Orleans, the quarterback will be an old man who leans towards a horizontal game and another who plays for the field.
In November, when the hot summer sun beat relentlessly on our tired backs, the narrative was that Tom Brady could no longer play on the field, condemning his marriage to Bruce Arians. At the time, he was in a prolonged fall and, 12 games a year (and going for a week of goodbye at the end of the year), hitting 28.1% of attempts that went over 20 yards in the air. In the last four games of the regular season, he hit 59.1% of those shots – an absurdly high rate – while increasing his downfield attempts from 5.30 per game to 5.50 per game, and once every 6.18 moves once every 7.41 bids. When the regular season was over, he tried more field shots (86) than in one season and completed them at a rate (36.0%) well above his New England career mark (30.9%).
USA Today Sports (4)
Brees’s arm limits the Saints to a horizontal attack, but the strength of Brady’s arm – although diminished – is still good enough to push him into the field. However, what about this jump in completion rate before and after more than 30 percentage points goodbye? I’m glad you asked.
Part of that is the sample size – four games are potentially just a streak. But mainly, it has to do with pass protection. During the last four weeks of the season, Brady was barely under pressure. Most of those attempts on the playing field came against Atlanta (two games) and Detroit, two teams with powerless passes. The first 12 games of the season, however, had several days and nights when Tampa’s offensive line from generally solid to very good failed to keep up.
Brady’s physical decline appears against pressure. When he manages to stay in a clean pocket and take the field, he is as good as ever. But he doesn’t move in his pocket as well as before, and yes, he gets a little more nervous than before after taking a few hits.
In the first two meetings with the Saints this year, the Bucs were absolutely unable to block the passage from New Orleans. Brady was fired three times in each match (many, considering he was fired 21 times in total in the season) and was constantly pressured. In the first match, they moved the ball exclusively through questionable passing interference flags. In the second match, he did not touch the ball. This time, they will also be without Alex Cappa, their skilled right guard.
So, in summary, if they make Cam Jordan and Trey Hendrickson look like vintage Reggie White and Reggie White’s bigger, faster and stronger brother, they won’t score points.
1b. This is not just one of the most underestimated lines in the show’s history (I think it gets some recognition, but Martin steals the show for many), but I have to think it was one of the most fun to launch and interpret.
(1c. The text above referred to all things about the “old man”. With Brady and Brees. To be clear.)
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2a. When my 5-year-old son and I deal the Pokémon cards (or “I traded the P-mon”, as I call it, but no one else does … yet) and I beat him in consecutive games, and I can say that he Are you getting a little upset when I click and lock while singing what I understand to be the Pokémon * theme song in celebration, maybe I will waste my Charizard on a show of mercy in the next games? Possibly.
But in addition to this or similar scenario, the conventional wisdom that it is difficult to defeat an opponent three times in a row is not only statistically false, but it also makes no sense when it comes to casual reasoning.
If you were to propose, before the season, These two teams of the caliber of the playoffs will play three times this year. Will any of these teams win the three games? The answer would be, probably not—The most likely scenario is 2-1. But if a team has already beaten an opponent twice, it is to be expected that they will win the team a third time, because in fact they have proved that it is an advantageous confrontation, or are just better, or both.
2b. The Football Perspective has a real analysis, if you like that kind of thing.
* —There are 150 or more to see, being a Pokémon Master is my destiny! Take them, take them, I have to take them all, I have to take them all. Catch them, catch them, I have to catch them all, I have to catch them all, Pokémon!
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3 – This is your annual reminder that it is stupid to continue to call it the Divisional Round. It should be called the Conference Semifinals. If, in casual conversation, someone refers to this as the Divisional Round, I encourage you to rebuke it in a tone of anger and a volume that is out of proportion to what you used during that interaction. And tell them that Football Things sent you.
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4 There is not much to say about the Chiefs-Browns game. In the last 14 months, in games they were trying, Kansas City lost once. The Browns are more than an enchanting story – the attack has been excellent after they left the monsoon season, and they will have practically their entire set of players and coaches back on Sunday. But they are rightly double-digit underdogs.
Still, can you imagine a Bills-Browns conference title game? I can. They would play in Buffalo. The Bills would wear their blue uniforms and the Browns would wear their white uniforms. The ball would probably have the usual shade of brown with white bows.
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5 There are a number of variables that determine whether hiring a chief technician is right or not – quality of personnel and personnel, adequacy of personnel and personnel, luck of injury, etc. Therefore, it is foolish to say: Excellent location! Book your Super Bowl tickets for three years from now! But Jets fans should go ahead and make a deposit for the game for the AFC title three years from now. (Or at least block January 28, 2024, they may lose the tie and have to play on the road.)
Robert Saleh is the real deal. He is loved by his players and he put his own wonderful twists on the Cover-3 Seahawks style in San Francisco. But most importantly, as he showed this year, he is an excellent teacher and problem solver. His unit was without Nick Bosa and a number of starters – you rarely see a defense with so many uniform numbers in the 60s during regular season games – yet the 49ers finished sixth in the defensive DVOA this season. And three seasons ago, when they struggled, it mostly had to do with an absurdly unfortunate lack of turnover.
Jets have the choice # 2, two others in the top 34 and a total of five in the top 100. They also have a ton of coverage space and can, for example, withdraw from a deep receiver market to compose for letting Robby Anderson ride last season. I think we can all agree, a golden age of Jets football will soon arrive. What if it isn’t? None of you will remember that I wrote this anyway.
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6 Ladies and gentlemen . . . Neil Young & Crazy Horse!
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