California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks at a news conference in Los Angeles, California | Mario Tama / Getty Images
SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom’s camp has a message for Democrats considering a recall offer in California: Don’t even think about it.
Even the suggestion of a candidacy attracts immediate condemnation of Newsom’s attack dog Sean Clegg, while other Newsom replacements are making it clear publicly and in particular that any Democratic challenger will become persona non grata in the party.
Minutes after POLITICO reported on Tuesday that former Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer was researching voters about his chances of revocation, Clegg tweeted that Steyer does not want to be “the cynical billionaire and vulture investor who bets against Democratic unity. so Trump’s Republicans can take the CA. “
After former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa asked California schools to reopen immediately amid talks about a possible candidacy, Clegg last week issued a clear rebuke: “My old friend Antonio will be ashamed and poisoned to your legacy always competes “, he wrote.
“This is how you lose,” said Newseg strategist Clegg in an interview. “We need to maintain our base”.
California is almost certain to have its second governor recall, probably this fall, based on an official count of state signatures released last week. The state’s unique recall system lends itself to a delicate intraparty dance. California asks two questions: first, do you want to revoke Newsom, and second, who should replace you if the recall is successful? The rules do not allow Newsom to appear on the replacement list of candidates who would accept his position.
As the prospect of a Villaraigosa candidacy has strengthened in recent weeks, other Newsom allies have tried to contain that momentum. Former Assembly President Fabian Núñez refused to share his private conversations with Villaraigosa and emphasized that he does not speak for the former mayor, but Núñez predicted that “at the end of the day, all members of the Democratic establishment and Democratic activists will be in the air the side of Governor Gavin Newsom. “
“We cannot make the same mistake twice,” Núñez said, invoking the ill-fated entry of Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante in the 2003 recall won by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. “I don’t see Democrats repeating this exercise again.”
If Democrats play their cards wrong and Newsom is called back without a leading Democrat on the ballot as an option, a high-profile Republican could take the top job with a quarter of the vote in one of the nation’s bluest states.
“The only time I care about a Republican [not] winning this seat is if a credible Democrat enters, ”said Anne Dunsmore, who heads one of the recall committees that are on the verge of qualifying the election.
A Democratic lawmaker said this week that California’s two-question approach needs revision. “The madness of our system is that many more people can vote to keep the incumbent in office than the person who ends up replacing the incumbent,” said Sen. Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica).
The topic of a Democrat potentially entering the race is the prevailing obsession among elected officials, donors and political advisers in California. There are two schools of thought. In one view, not presenting a stand-by candidate would be an unforgivable oversight that could allow a Republican to take office with a majority of votes. On the other, a Democrat’s entry would signal weakness and disunity when Newsom needs his allies more than ever – potentially ensuring that the second question is needed.
The dance around the recall forces California Democrats to balance two elementary political motivations: self-preservation and opportunism. Any ambitious Democrat who competes and fails would fall down the career ladder and fall into political oblivion. No one forgot Bustamante’s implosion after he jumped into the 2003 race. But the recall also offers a tantalizing chance to enter the governor’s office.
For now, Democrats are projecting unity behind Newsom. Event after event, Democrats seen as potential candidates swore allegiance to the governor and criticized the recall as a party distraction.
The governor’s team also sought to crack down on a challenge from the left, reaching out to California’s progressive Democratic deputy Ro Khanna to enlist the support of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) And launching an endorsement by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). They are trying to signal that Newsom may have failed a few times, but he is far superior to a Republican.
“I made the case [to Sanders] that he really needed to weigh in, that this is a Republican attempt to take control of California, ”Khanna said in an interview. “I understand that there may be some progressive disappointment in [progressive] goals that have not yet been achieved, such as a single payment, but this is the moment when we really need to unite against the recall. “
Newsom remains in a relatively strong position, with an approval rating of around 50 percent – much better than Governor Gray Davis had before he was ousted by voters. Democrats contemplating a race are likely to wait to see where Newsom is closer to the deadline for submitting a likely fall candidate.
“If I’m thinking, ‘Am I going to sail in 90 days?’ I will wait 89 days to see how the weather is, ”said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant who worked for Schwarzenegger.
If Newsom fails to muster a majority to avoid being recalled, a Democrat would enjoy powerful advantages in the second question of who to replace the governor. California remains a predominantly democratic state.
The greater risk-benefit calculation could favor the entry of a Democrat who is not currently in public office and therefore has less to lose. Political observers are closely watching Villaraigosa, who lost to Newsom in the 2018 governorate primaries. Villaraigosa, a Mercury public relations partner, has a household name and could activate a political support network in Los Angeles, a power base that would counterbalance the roots of the Newsom Bay Area.
The former mayor was shy about his intentions, criticizing the recall without explicitly ruling out a run. But he has openly criticized the closure of schools, a big risk for Newsom. Educational policy was a dividing line in the 2018 primaries, with established allies spending millions to boost Villaraigosa and unions uniting in defense of Newsom.
Steyer is also approaching. The former Democratic presidential candidate has a long history of penetrating California politics, with no job to lose, but considerable personal wealth to finance a campaign.
And there is always a nuclear option.
If polls suggest that Newsom is in serious trouble as the recall approaches, the governor may step down. This would allow Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis to take office and short-circuit the recall linked to Newsom – while undoubtedly raising the ire of Republicans.
“In September, he may be doing very well and we will continue,” said Democratic political strategist Christine Pelosi, the daughter of mayor Nancy Pelosi. “But if he is really submerged, it may be that no Democrat can win. So he should step down as governor and Eleni Kounalakis should be the governor, and they should cancel the election. In that case, the Democratic Party would retain the government. “