The Trump administration released a report outlining its Indo-Pacific strategy, including “accelerating India’s rise”, blocking China from establishing “unlawful spheres of influence” and maintaining “US strategic primacy” in the region, according to a copy seen by Axios.
Why it matters: The strategy set out in the ten-page report, written in early 2018, guided the U.S. approach to China, India, North Korea and other nations in the Indo-Pacific region over the past three years. Its launch sheds light on the geopolitical and security challenges that will soon be inherited by the Biden government.
China is the main state actor of concern described in the document, followed by North Korea. The strategy emphasizes combating China’s growing influence abroad, seeking strategic alignment with allies and partners, defending a “liberal economic order” in the region and working to “inoculate” the United States and its partners against China’s intelligence activities.
- The strategy also describes a major expansion of military, intelligence and diplomatic support to India as the main regional counterweight to China – an approach that is likely to raise eyebrows in Beijing and Islamabad.
What they are saying: “The declassification of the Structure today demonstrates, with transparency, America’s strategic commitments to the Indo-Pacific and to our allies and partners in the region,” wrote national security adviser Robert O’Brien in a memo dated January 5, 2021 and included with the strategy paper.
Dividing: The Trump administration has rigorously fulfilled several of its stated goals in relation to China in the past three years, including:
- Build an “international consensus that China’s unfair industrial policies and trade practices are undermining the global trading system”
- Expand US counter-information and law enforcement to curb China’s intelligence activities in the U.S., and expand intelligence sharing with allies to help them do the same.
- Development of military and asymmetric war strategies to help Taiwan in its long-standing, tense relationship with China.
- Strengthening national security analyzes of Chinese investments in sensitive US sectors
- Work with allies and partners to try to “prevent Chinese acquisition of military and strategic capabilities”.
Yes but: Some objectives faced headwinds.
- The strategy repeatedly calls for greater US involvement with countries in the region, in particular the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In some cases, the U.S. has indeed withdrawn from the region, including through Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the rejection of the ASEAN summits.
- The goal of showing the benefits of American democratic values as a counterweight to China in the region has also suffered a major blow with the recent armed insurrection in the United States Capitol. These events led to the resignation of one of the strategy’s main authors, former vice-national security Matt Pottinger.
Of importance: India constitutes an important cornerstone of the Indo-Pacific strategy properly called.
- The document says that enhanced US assistance and intelligence sharing should help India in key areas of conflict with China, including border disputes and water rights in the Himalayas. In 2020, India and China had their deadliest military conflict along the border since 1967.
- But the US-India relationship is complex. During the cold war, India refused to place itself directly in the western camp, opting for leadership in the non-aligned movement. Meanwhile, the United States tends to lean towards Pakistan, India’s historic archrival in South Asia.
Bottom: The Trump administration has initiated a new official structure to see China and India as part of the same strategic region, the “Indo-Pacific”, starting with its National Security Strategy in 2017.
- U.S. Pacific Command was renamed Indo-Pacific Command in 2018, in a move widely seen as a response to China’s rise.
Between the lines: Australia’s experience with China strongly influenced the elaboration of the 2018 Indo-Pacific strategy.
- “In many ways, they were ahead of the curve in understanding operations of influence and interference in domestic systems,” a senior US official told me. “They were pioneers and we have to give Australia a lot of credit.”
- The official singled out former Australian senior intelligence adviser John Garnaut for praise and said a 2017 report on Chinese-influenced operations by New Zealand academic Anne-Marie Brady also influenced U.S. strategy.
Go deeper: State Department publishes plan to combat China.