Scientists are not surprised to see the coronavirus changing and evolving – that’s what viruses do, after all. And with so much uncontrolled spread by the United States and other parts of the world, the virus is having many opportunities to do just that.
Four of the new variants are of particular concern.
“Variants that have been identified recently seem to spread more easily. They are more transmissible, which can lead to more cases and more stress on our already overloaded system,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the newly appointed director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, he said in an interview on Wednesday.
What scientists fear most is that there will be a mutation to the point of causing a more serious disease, which will exceed the test’s detection capacity or avoid the protection provided by vaccination. Although some of the new variants appear to have changes that can affect the immune response, it is only a matter of degree.
Governments are already reacting. Colombia has banned flights from Brazil and Brazil has banned flights from South Africa. It is almost certainly too late to stop the spread and there is some indication that mutations in these variants are emerging independently and in several places.
Here’s what is known about the top four.
B.1.1.7
At the top of the list of researchers in the USA is variant B.1.1.7 seen for the first time in Britain. The CDC warned that this could worsen the spread of the pandemic. He reports more than 300 cases in 28 states – but these are only the cases detected by genomic sequencing, which is unpredictable in the United States.
While hearing about new mutant viruses can scare people, scientists say they are comfortable with what they have discovered: the human immune system can handle the variants that have emerged so far, especially B.1.1.7.
“As far as we know, it’s transmitted in exactly the same way,” Gregory Armstrong, who directs the CDC’s Office of Advanced Molecular Detection, told CNN.
This means that the same measures already known to reduce the spread will also prevent the new variants: wearing a mask, social distance, avoiding large groups or crowds and frequent hand washing.
However, mutations in the variant help you get into cells more easily – meaning that if someone, say, takes a deep breath with virus particles, those particles are more likely to infect some cells in the sinuses or lungs instead to bounce harmlessly. The worrying changes increase the protein spike that the virus uses to bind cells, meaning that people are more likely to be infected by exposure.
Therefore, people need to do more to prevent spread until vaccination can be accelerated.
“To stop the transmission, we will need higher rates than we do to slow the transmission,” said Armstrong. “We need to pay more attention to wearing masks. And we need to increase vaccination coverage ”.
There have been some mixed reports as to whether B.1.1.7 has caused more serious illness in Britain.
“The latest data indicates from the UK that it appears to be a little more virulent in the sense of causing potentially more serious illnesses,” The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said in a webcast on Thursday sponsored by the National Education Association.
B.1.351
variant first seen in South Africa, called B.1.351 or 501Y.V2, was first reported in the USA on Thursday in South Carolina.
The two people lived in different parts of the state and neither had traveled recently, although Dr. Brannon Traxler, the interim director of public health for the health department, declined to say whether this indicated that the variant must be spreading in the community.
It has been seen in more than 30 other countries, according to the World Health Organization.
“The variant that was first detected in South Africa has spread rapidly beyond Africa and what keeps me up at night now is that it is most likely circulating in several African countries,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director to Africa, said Thursday.
It has a different pattern of mutations that causes more physical changes in the structure of the peak protein than B.1.1.7. One major mutation, called E484K, appears to affect the receptor-binding domain – the part of the spike protein most important for binding to cells.
It can help the virus to partially escape the effects of vaccines. “There is more concern about immune escape,” said Armstrong. Vaccine manufacturers and academic researchers are testing samples of this variant, along with others, to see if it can escape the immune response caused by the vaccination.
Fauci says that even so, there is an extra immunity pad caused by vaccination. This gives some room for maneuver. “The good news is that vaccines, as they now exist, would still be effective against mutants. The worrying news … as you get more and more replication, you can get more and more of the mutants’ evolution, which means that you always managed to be one step ahead, “Fauci told CNN on Monday.
“There are certainly a range of different types of antibodies that can neutralize the virus. Those types of things in the plasma are probably resistant to emerging mutations,” said Dr. Michel Nussenzweig of Rockefeller University, who is testing different mutations against the blood of vaccinated people.
Teams at Columbia University, the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center at Columbia University and elsewhere have also tested laboratory-made versions of viral mutations against the blood of vaccinated people and say that while there appears to be a somewhat diminished effect of vaccination, it is not enough to weaken protection – yet.
As a precaution, Pfizer and Moderna are working to produce booster vaccines that would target mutant versions. The vaccine project aims to make this process quick and easy – just connect a new version of the genetic code used to generate the vaccines.
There is also evidence that the changes may help to escape monoclonal antibody treatments by Eli Lilly and Co. and Regeneron, too.
Q.1
A variant suspected of fueling the resurgence of viral spread in Brazil appeared in Minnesota for the first time this week. It was on a traveler from Brazil, so there is still no indication of spread of the community.
This variant, called P.1, was found in 42% of the specimens in a survey conducted in the Brazilian city of Manaus, and Japanese authorities found the variant in four travelers from Brazil.
“The emergence of this variant raises concerns about a potential increase in transmissibility or propensity for reinfection of individuals with SARS-CoV-2,” said the CDC. P.1 also carries the E484K mutation.
L425R
Finally, there is a new variant seen in California, as well as in a dozen other states. “We still don’t know what that means,” said Armstrong. It also has a mutation in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. It is called the L425R and, although it is commonly found, it is not yet clear whether it is more transmissible.
Any viral strain can become more common because of what is known as the founding effect. “The founding effect is that the virus is in the right place at the right time,” said Armstrong. If a particular strain is circulating when transmission increases because of human behavior, that strain will continue and become more common not because it spreads more easily, but simply because it was there.
Further studies are needed to show whether these variants can increase the already astronomical spread of the virus. The USA has more than 25 million diagnosed cases and more than 430,000 deaths.
“The emergence of variants highlights the need for public health actions,” advised Walensky.
“First, get vaccinated when it’s your turn. Also, some people may need help getting vaccinated – please consider helping your neighbors and loved ones to schedule or travel to your appointments. Second, wear a mask. Practice detachment. social and wash your hands. And finally, now is not the time to travel. “