Even though things look promising for the summer, the coronavirus is still finding new ways to threaten our crawl back to normal and our general sense of health and safety. Lately, there have been so-called variants from South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil, as well as more recent variants, such as those that appeared in New York City and California. It is difficult to track them all and their whereabouts. The UK variant, which appears to spread easily, may become dominant in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday. On Tuesday, health officials announced that they had found the Brazilian variant in Massachusetts. France’s health ministry has just reported several cases of a new variant that may be more difficult to detect with tests.
You may have some questions about what it all means for vaccines, masks (and the lack of them) and our overall future. I spoke to four experts and here’s what they say we know – and what we’re still waiting to find out.
Why is the virus mutating?
Every time the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects a new person, “he has to copy himself,” says David Kennedy, a disease ecologist at the Penn State Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics. All of these copies of the virus circulate through your body, wreaking havoc and making you sick. With each new copy, there is a chance of making mistakes in the duplication process. These errors are mutations. What each mutation means depends on the luck of the draw. Most mutations have no effect, make the virus worse for infecting people, or cause it to die immediately. But some mutations make the virus better in infecting people. Those are the problems.
OK, how can I know with which outbreak variants?
Well, for a start, things look good now – more about why in a little while. But we still don’t know if all of the newer variants are worrying. Just as it was difficult to say how the then new coronavirus would behave globally in January 2020, you can’t just look at a variant and predict how it will behave (and how people and governments will deal with it) But there are a few things that scientists look for. The clearest sign that a variant is worrying is whether it is responsible for an increasing percentage of cases in a specific area, says Kennedy. This is an indication that the variant is better for infecting people than the rest of the SARS-CoV-2 out there now. This means that natural selection is causing this particular variant to take over.
Increased transmission is another sign. Contact tracking can help researchers find out if someone infected with a new variant is more likely to spread it to others. Brianne Barker, a virologist at Drew University, says he started to be more concerned about the UK variant when contact tracking data showed that an infected person could spread the disease to more people than someone with the original SARS-CoV-2 .
A third less certain sign is whether the variant has a specific mutation. The South Africa, United Kingdom and Brazil variants have what scientists call the “501 mutation”. This is a change in the little pointed things that cover the virus, which makes it better for entering human cells, says Scott Weaver, virologist and scientific director at Galveston National Laboratory. “This mutation appears to be responsible for most of the increase in transmission,” said Weaver. But only having the 501 mutation is not enough to make a new worrying variant, says Kennedy. “These mutations do not act on their own,” he says. “Everything kind of interacts with everything else. Therefore, the same mutation in two different viruses can have very different effects. “
Which means: finding out if a new variant is worrying is complicated, even if you are equipped to examine your DNA. If you are just examining the news, it is even more difficult to say. If a story about a new variant does not cite explicit evidence that it is becoming more prevalent or transmissible, it is probably safe not to worry about it.
Well, what about variants that are increasing transmission, like the UK?
Even with regard to variants, you shouldn’t change your personal calculation too much, except to make sure you’re avoiding other people inside the house and wearing effective masks. These strategies work against variants.
Is it possible that there is a variant that would really change our strategy – say, one that is more transmissible on surfaces?
None of the current variants were considered to be better at surface transmission, says Weaver. Theoretically could develop a variant that would be better at transmitting through surfaces. For example, it can be more stable and last longer, say, on a table or doorknob. (But now you must wash your hands regularly.)
What It is different about, say, the UK variant that makes it easier to spread?
At the moment, a few different things can increase the transmission of a variant. It could reproduce more inside the nose and throat. More viruses means more spread – that is, escaping from your body and potentially reaching other people’s bodies. Hamsters with the UK variant spread more viruses, Weaver’s laboratory found. Or a variant may need fewer viruses to establish an infection.
Are vaccines less effective against new variants?
We still don’t know the full picture in detail, but what we do know is actually quite encouraging. Experts with whom I spoke agree that vaccines are likely to be effective in preventing many risks of serious and critical illnesses. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested against the South African variant in its clinical trial. It was 64% effective in South Africa. Although it is less than 72 percent effective in the United States, it still offers some protection. Remember that before the vaccines were tested, the Food and Drug Administration was prepared to approve anything more than 50 percent effective, and annual flu shots are 40 to 60 percent effective.
The variants did not yet exist during the clinical trials of Pfizer and Moderna. But Kennedy says that “there are good reasons to think that they will still be effective against these variants,” and the other experts I spoke with agree.
Wait, but it looks like the Johnson & Johnson vaccine It is less effective against the South African variant. Why the optimism?
What would be really bad is a variant that could totally escape the vaccine-induced immunity. The good news is that none of the current variants seems to do that. According to some articles that have not yet been published, antibodies produced with the help of vaccines appear to effectively neutralize the UK variant, says Weaver. Manufacturers design a vaccine to help the body launch a series of different antibodies against the virus, so that, in combination, all are sufficient to eliminate it. Weaver says there is a “pretty consistent picture emerging” that the South Africa variant is probably a little a little more agile against an antibody, “but there would still be a little protection” from the vaccine. Antibodies make it difficult for the virus to clump together at all ends that protrude from it. “The peak protein is huge, so there will be antibodies to many different portions of it,” says Barker. It would take many mutations to make a variant that could dodge Worldwide of those antibodies. In addition, vaccines also stimulate the body to produce T cells, and a recent preprint found that these T cells were still just as protective against the new variants. “Usually people think of it as binary, right? The vaccine works or the vaccine does not work, ”says Kennedy. “And that’s not how it works.”
All the evidence so far says that current variants fail to get past vaccines to the point that we are really concerned. We don’t have data on how New York or Southern California variants respond to vaccines yet, but scientists are expected to have “very soon,” perhaps in a month or more, says Bryce Chackerian, an immunologist at the University of New Mexico School of Medicine.
Well, since at least one variant slightly decreases the protection of at least one vaccine … will we eventually receive booster vaccines?
It might be. “We don’t know,” says Chackerian. “All I can say is that the companies that are making the RNA vaccines” – the new easily adaptable technology used by Pfizer and Moderna – “are planning this right now.” Manufacturers are already creating boosters that target multiple variants or specific variants. A PBS article explains that it takes about six weeks between obtaining the genetic sequence for a new variant and having a new mRNA vaccine booster ready to be tested in humans, plus extra time for clinical testing. In late February, the National Institutes of Health started a phase 1 clinical trial of a Moderna booster targeting the South African variant. Johnson & Johnson is also testing a second dose of its existing vaccine, and Moderna and Pfizer are testing a third dose. “I think it is very possible that next fall or winter” we will receive boosters from the coronavirus along with our annual flu vaccine, said Weaver.
But then again, all four experts I checked with said that the existing vaccines proved to be very good against the existing variants. The variants “should be the motivation for getting a vaccine,” says Kennedy. After doing so, it is reasonable to go ahead and follow the CDC’s recent advice on socialization for vaccinated people.
But there are many people who have not had the vaccine and are socializing! What do the recent changes in masking mandates and business restrictions in some states mean for variants?
Yes, what is really worrying is that opening states now, although only about 10% of the country has been fully vaccinated, is likely to lead to more variants. “The more viruses there are, the more opportunities there are for new variants,” said Kennedy. All the experts I spoke to agree that careless reopening can not only increase cases, but can help the virus mutate in ways that are more difficult to fight. “I think it’s very risky,” said Weaver. Some of these new variants will inevitably be harmless. But there is a chance that some are even more worrying than what we are seeing now.