Mutant versions of the coronavirus threaten to prolong the pandemic, perhaps for years – killing more people and deepening the global economic crisis in the process.
The big picture: The United States and the world are in a race to control the virus before these variants can gain a greater foothold. But many experts say they already expect things to get worse before they get better. It also means that the end of the pandemic may be increasingly distant.
- “It can take four to five years before we finally see the end of the pandemic and the start of a normal post-COVID, ”said Singapore’s Minister of Education last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Where is it: “There are essentially two separate COVID-19 epidemics,” Dutch officials said recently, referring to the original COVID-19 strain and the growing threat from mutant versions of the virus.
- There is light at the end of the tunnel for the first epidemic. Although the virus is still spreading out of control in the United States and much of the world, cases and hospitalizations have declined from their peak and vaccinations are steadily increasing.
- But the next iteration, fueled by variants of the virus, is already happening.
What is the next: A British variant of the coronavirus is likely to become the dominant strain in the United States soon, experts say. It is significantly more contagious than the virus we’ve dealt with so far, and some researchers believe it can also be about 30% more deadly.
- “This hurricane is coming,” Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota and Biden’s transition advisor, said on Sunday in “Meet the Press.”
- A more contagious and lethal strain of the virus could easily bring cases, hospitalizations and deaths back to record levels, even with the increase in vaccinations.
“We will see something we haven’t seen in this country yet, ”said Osterholm.
Vaccines work against the British variant, and they will help to control its spread, as well as help to control the pandemic in general.
- But vaccinations can only increase rapidly. The Biden government is trying to push the doses as quickly as possible, but there is a good chance that the most contagious virus is moving faster.
- Existing vaccines do not seem to work as well against some other variants, including a particularly problematic one first identified in South Africa. They work and seem to prevent serious illness and death, which are the most important things – but they may not prevent as many infections in general.
- Vaccine manufacturers can remake their prescriptions and propose booster doses to help deal with more resistant strains, but that will take time.
How it works: All of these problems stem from the same underlying problem – the uncontrolled spread of the virus.
- More cases mean more hospitalizations and more deaths. Larger outbreaks also provide more opportunities for the appearance and spread of mutations.
- A more transmissible virus means that a larger portion of the population – perhaps up to 85% – would have to be vaccinated to obtain collective immunity. This will be overkill, given the widespread hesitation of the vaccine across the country.
Because vaccine production it is still growing, putting things under control well enough to prevent a second phase of the pandemic would have to depend heavily on social detachment and the use of masks.
- This is not a very promising position, especially for a country like the US
The end result: Vaccines work and are still the key to ending this pandemic. But relying on them almost exclusively just makes the job more difficult and is likely to prolong this pandemic for years.