As expected, the first full winter of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States was brutal, bringing the total death toll approaching the half a million mark. There is also reason to be hopeful: the daily average of new Covid cases is now decreasing in 43 statesand, although it has an unstable start, the launch of Covid vaccines is underway. But it’s SARS-CoV-2 that we’re talking about, and the virus doesn’t care fitting into any small, organized narrative where spring arrives and everyone is vaccinated, leading to an end to the pandemic and everyone playing without a mask in a field.
Along with the positive news, there have also been reports confirming cases of infections and deaths caused by new variants of the virus that causes Covid-19. While clearly not a step in the right direction, what exactly does this mean? It will be the existing vaccines be effective against these new strains? And should we do something different to protect ourselves? Here’s what you should know, along with an analysis of some of the most common variants so far.
It is normal for viruses to change
It is common for viruses to mutate over time, in some cases, forming new variants. “That’s why we get the flu vaccine every year – because the flu virus changes and we have a new variant every year,” he says Dr. Karin Michels, professor and chairman of the Department of Epidemiology at the School of Public Health at UCLA Fielding. “We may have to get Covid’s annual vaccine from now on, in addition to the annual flu vaccine.”
But not all variants have what it takes to persist: some form and then disappear, while others persist and spread. Although there is an ever-changing list of new variants of SARS-CoV-2, three emerged that scientists are more concerned – at least for now – than the original virus.
The original virus
On December 31, 2019, health officials in Wuhan, China, reported a group of pneumonia cases of unknown cause, which they soon identified as a new coronavirus. Several weeks later, the International Virus Taxonomy Committee (ICTV) announced that the new virus would be called “Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2” – or “SARS-CoV-2” for short – because although they are different, this virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak in 2003.
On the same day, February 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 would be known as “Covid-19”. As of February 19, 2021, the WHO reports that there were approximately 111 million cases of Covid-19, resulting in almost 2.5 million deaths.
The United Kingdom variant
Also known as variant B.1.1.7, this strain emerged from the UK in September 2020 and is now found in more than 80 countries. The first confirmed case in the United States came in late December, and as of February 21, 2021, a total of 1,661 cases were reported in 42 states.
Because it has been circulating for more than five months, scientists know more about this new strain than any of the others, but are still far from understanding its full impact. The latest research from Public Health England estimates that variant B.1.1.7 is between 30 to 50% more transmissible – which means it spreads more efficiently and quickly – than other strains. Other preliminary data from the UK suggest that the strain comes with the possibility of more severe cases of Covid-19 and may be associated with a 30% increase in risk of death compared to other variants – although, as BBC News points out, “The evidence is not strong and the data is still uncertain”. THE CDC predicted that B.1.1.7 will be the dominant strain in the United States next month.
The South African variant
Although variant B.1.351 originated in South Africa at about the same time that the UK strain began to spread, the CDC says that developed independently. It then became the dominant variant in Zambia in December 2020. Preliminary data estimates indicate that this strain is 50 percent more transmissible than the previous strains that were circulating in South Africa. At this point, there is no evidence that B.1.351 causes a more severe Covid-19, according to the CDC.
However, it is known that, like variants B.1.1.7 and P.1, variant B.1.351 contains a mutation in its peak protein that allows the virus to attach to human cells more easily than the original iteration of SARS- CoV-2. The first infections caused by the B.1.351 strain in the United States were identified in late January 2021, and from 21 February, a total of 22 cases were reported in 10 states.
The Brazil variant
In early January 2021, a new strain of the virus known as P.1 was first identified in travelers from Brazil during routine Covid tests at an airport in Japan. At the end of the month, it was detected in the United States and from February 21st, a total of five cases have been reported in four states.
There is currently no microbiological or epidemiological evidence of higher P.1 transmissibility – but the presence of a mutation also found in the UK and South Africa variants indicates that it is plausible – nor is there any evidence of an increase in severity resulting infections. In addition, according to the CDC, this variant contains a set of additional mutations that can affect your ability to be recognized by antibodies – meaning that if a person has been infected with the original virus, the antibodies they have developed may not protect them against that variant.
What does this mean for Covid-19 vaccines that have already been developed?
After all the drama and emotion of the race for a vaccine, finding out about these new variants that are circulating around the world – as well as the vaccine launch is starting – it can seem a little overwhelming. But that’s not the right way to look at things, he says Dr. Sten Vermund, infectious disease epidemiologist and professor at the Yale School of Public Health.
See, for example, data from recent clinical trials of Novavax, which indicated that the candidate vaccine Covid is about 85% effective against the UK variant and approximately 50% effective against the South African strain. But, as Vermund puts it, a “50 percent effectiveness rate is huge,” because that means there is a possibility that there are enough cross-reactive antibodies to at least decrease the severity of the infection in all recipients. “So people who get infected and get sick are not going to get how sick, because having immunity to an incompatible variant is better than having no immunity at all, ”he explains.
So far, both Pfizer-BioNTech and Modern reported that their vaccines are effective against variant B.1.1.7 (United Kingdom), but didn’t do so well against Variant B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa). The efficacy of vaccines against the P.1 variant outside Brazil is not yet known. Currently, both Pfizer and Modern they are working on booster doses that, if necessary, could offer greater protection to those who received the original vaccine formulation.
For now, Vermund says we should continue to receive the vaccines currently available, as planned. “The faster we suppress transmission globally, the fewer variants will appear and the more effective our current vaccines will be in use in the real world,” he explains.
How can we protect ourselves against the new variants?
According to Vermund, we should take the same measures and precautions that were recommended during the pandemic – except with everyone really making an effort this time. “People have not necessarily been strict in applying classic public health strategies,” he says. “For example, there is a lot of use of a mask that is not correct. Many people have the mask under their nose. Many people do not have tight fitting masks. “
In addition, Vermund and Michels emphasize the importance of keeping as much space as possible – but at least 6 feet – between you and other people. “Many people are very relaxed with their distance of almost two meters,” explains Vermund. “And, you know, it wasn’t arbitrary. We obtained data of almost two meters from real-world data. People have to respect that. “
So, how much should we be concerned with the new variants? “Very concerned,” says Michels. “But even more concerned about the new mutants that could bypass the vaccines currently available – because the virus is intended to prevent our immune response. In fact, the new variants are more aggressive and can make you sicker than the original strain, so I would be – and am – even more cautious. “