It is no secret that a new group of Shimano Dura-Ace groups is on the way.
Shimano has been updating its Dura-Ace group on a four-year cycle for many years. However, with launches in 2008, 2012 and 2016, the new Dura-Ace was expected to arrive in 2020, but to no avail. For unknown reasons – potentially related to COVID-19 – Shimano has broken its trend and we are now in the fifth year with the current iteration, the Dura-Ace R9100 series.
In the five years since its launch, Shimano’s competition in the best space for road bike groups has advanced at high speed. Both SRAM and Campagnolo increased the number of sprockets to 12 – or 13 – if you count Campag’s new Ekar gravel group – and subsequently the range of gears on offer as well. SRAM and FSA have further increased the advantage with wireless technology, simplifying initial setup and maintenance.
Despite this, Shimano’s current Dura-Ace group is still an exceptional piece of engineering and still maintains a loyal following. Although the SRAM Red eTap AXS has wireless technology and 12 speeds at its side, the debate about today’s best road bike groups is still strongly contested.
But with the imminent arrival of the new Dura-Ace, what do we know, what do we expect and when will it be released? A number of patents and legal documents were discovered last year, which gave us some clues. So let’s look at rumors and speculation to find out what’s coming.
What will the series be called?
Cyclingnews forecast: The new Dura-Ace will almost certainly be called the R9200 and R9250 for mechanical and electrical, respectively
Radio frequency FCC (US Federal Communications Commission) documents – which we will explain in more detail later – include the name of two DAT files that reference the software. For the document related to the exchange, the file name starts with STR9250 and for the document related to the rear exchange, the file name starts with RDR9250.
To explain why this is relevant, Shimano part numbers are prefixed with letters that refer to the part in question, ST is the part number prefix for Shimano shifters and RD is Rear Derailleur. For example, a RD-R9150 it is a rear derailleur of the current series (R9150). Therefore, having the prefixes RD and ST in documents related to the relevant components, with the inclusion of the name of the next planned series (R9250), is quite conclusive evidence. If not, it is an immeasurably huge coincidence.
Possible release date: unconfirmed
The obvious guess here is that the Dura-Ace will be launched in line with Shimano’s 100th anniversary. Shimano even has a teaser site with a full-screen countdown, with a note saying “The Official Centennial Website will open on March 23, 2021”. However, something worth noting is that the countdown is set to expire two days earlier, at 00:00 on March 21st.
Looking for clues in history, March would be before the typical Shimano feel. Dura-Ace 7900 was released on June 3, 2008, version 9000 came at a similar time of year on May 31, with R9100 arriving a few weeks later in the year on June 29, 2016.
What we do know is that both the DSM Team and Groupama-FDJ reaffirmed their long-term partnerships with Shimano before the 2021 season, so we expect these teams to be involved in some way in the launch. With Dura-Ace being the main road group of the Shimano line, when it launches, we expect it to be seen for the first time bolted to the Scott bikes of the DSM Team or the Lapierres de Groupama.
Will the new Dura-Ace be wireless?
Cyclingnews preview: The new Dura-Ace will almost certainly include wireless technology in some way.
The most notable of the clues to date have been patents granted in November, discovered by our friends in CyclingTips, which featured wireless radio receivers on the shifters and diverters, as well as a battery on the shifters.
The patent drawings showed road levers, ruling out the possibility that this patent would be an advance for MTB or e-Bike. Therefore, given that none of Shimano’s current road group groups are wireless, it seems likely that Dura-Ace would be the first to obtain the technology.
The aforementioned FCC documents related to wireless radio frequencies confirm the theory. These documents confirmed that Shimano received FCC certification in the United States to use a radio frequency called ‘Shimano Original’ at 2,478 MHz in its shifters and a rear derailleur.
Or will it be wireless?
Cyclingnews forecast: Probable
The other rumor that has been raised is the possibility of a wireless option, not unlike the configuration of the FSA K-Force WE disk group. This would connect the diverters to each other via a battery in the frame, and this trio of components would then transmit wirelessly to the shifters.
In these November patents, Shimano included several variations of the final configuration, leaving some potential results – and therefore keeping us in doubt. In one variation, a wireless transmitter and battery were shown to be housed in each of the front and rear derailleurs. However, in another, there was a separate battery that connected the derailers.
The FCC documentation remarkably omits any mention of a front derailleur, which in itself suggests that the rear derailleur could act as the “brain” of the system and that the front derailleur would be connected to the rear via a Di2 cable and- tube or similar. This would work in a mirror image for the FSA, which houses the brains in the front derailleur.
Another notable inclusion in the FCC documentation is the mention of a BT-DN300, which, for those who know its Shimano part numbers, is a battery for their Di2 systems. The current iteration of the Di2 battery carries part number BT-DN110, suggesting that BT-DN300 is new.
We saw Shimano launch new, lighter and faster e-tube cables (EW-SD300) together with the newest EP8 engine in August 2020, so if the new Dura-Ace is actually connected in some capacity, BT is likely -DN300 is compatible with these new cables. The suffix ‘300’ in these part numbers may be a clue, but given that the BT-DN110 is compatible with EW-SD50 cables, we are not reading much about it.
The BT-DN300 battery could very well be housed in the frame and be compatible with these new cables, but likewise, it could simply be the part number given to a proprietary battery to be housed in the diverters.
At this stage, it is not confirmed which way Shimano will go, but our best guess is that the new Dura-Ace will be wireless. If so, it would somehow improve the initial configuration of today’s modern road bikes, negating the need to run an extra cable through today’s complicated integrated cockpits.
Will it be 12 speeds?
Cyclingnews prediction: the new Dura-Ace will almost certainly have 12 speeds
The same patent documentation that gave clues to wireless technology also included a very succinct design of a 12-speed cassette.
This, coupled with the expectation that Shimano will follow its competitors in the 12-speed realm, strongly suggests that the new group of Dura-Ace groups will be 12-speed. The documentation clearly refers to a set of road groups, with the patent drawings showing a side diagram of a bicycle with handlebars – with rim brakes, no less.
However, there is a small caveat here, as the largest cassette sprocket size shown in the diagram has 36 teeth. More than you would expect from a first-rate Shimano cassette tape. The smallest sprocket size on this cassette is 10 teeth, which confirms that Shimano is following the SRAM example of including a 10 tooth sprocket, and that could mean that Shimano will also follow the example of reducing the size of the crown, which in turn would go some way to explaining the potential need for a 36T sprocket.
For us, there are two viable explanations here: either the new Dura-Ace rear derailleur will offer radically greater capacity than its ancestor, so it can handle a 10-36T cassette, or Shimano has quick plans to slow down 12 for lower tier groups, where a 36T cassette sprocket is more likely to be desired.
Are they just disc brakes?
Cyclingnews preview: New Dura-Ace will come with rim and disc brake variants
November patents also include mention of cable and hydraulic variants, which, given the lack of cable-operated disc brakes at the Dura-Ace level, suggests that rim brakes will continue to be part of the Shimano Dura-Ace line. The rim brake purists rejoice.
Will it be self-loading?
Cyclingnews forecast: the new Dura-Ace will likely feature some battery regeneration technology, but the group of groups will not be entirely self-sufficient
Returning to these November patents, the shifters have shown to present a ‘power generation unit’. The patent suggests that this technology would use the movement of the rotating blades to generate energy thanks to the inclusion of a piezoelectric component that, in turn, would generate energy and recharge the battery.
The drawings represent coin cell batteries integrated into the shifters, so we hope that this power generation will simply recharge the shifters themselves, instead of the entire system. Especially since we are predicting that it will be wireless in some ways.
Will it extend only to the group? And wheels?
Cyclingnews forecast: the new Dura-Ace will include the full range of components as it currently does, including set of groups, wheels and energy meter crankshafts
It would be surprising to see the new Dura-Ace omit the wheels from the series, especially considering that previous iterations included wheels – both tubular and convincing – in the line.
We saw some riders from Team Sunweb (formerly Team DSM) and Groupama-FDJ, both using brand new and unmarked wheels on the 2020 Tour de France. Of course, this is not the first time that a WorldTour team has ceased to be a sponsor, but in this case, given the connection of both teams to the brand and the imminent launch of Dura-Ace, we hope that the wheel was a new Dura-Ace prototype. Ace being tested in the rigorous test that is the Tour.