How concerned should California be with the potentially more contagious new variant of the coronavirus discovered here?
The variant caused great concern in Europe after being discovered in England, just before Christmas. The first reported case of COVID-19 in the United States caused by the variant was detected in Colorado. While development is a cause for concern, some say it is not necessarily a cause for alarm.
Here’s what we know:
Variant is not surprising
Experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, say the variant is no surprise, but they also say the new strain may change the virus’s behavior.
“I don’t think Californians should think this is strange,” said Fauci. “This is expected.”
Mutations in the coronavirus are not unexpected, he said, considering that “the more you replicate, the more you mutate. So, when you have a lot of viruses circulating in the community, it means you are infecting a lot of people; is replicating a lot. “
The “overwhelming majority of mutations are irrelevant,” he continued, but “every now and then, you get a mutation that affects a function of the virus”.
“It seems,” he added, “from what we’ve learned in the UK and what we’re going to prove here, that this particular mutation makes the virus better at transmitting from one person to another.”
Some scientists, however, are more skeptical than genetic changes in the strain, known as B.1.1.7, makes it more contagious. There are other possible explanations for the rapid spread of the variant in England, such as its transmission through dense communities and among people who are less likely to wear masks and social distance.
In any case, “there is no indication that virulence increases … the ability to make you sick or kill you,” said Fauci of the variant, adding that it appears that existing vaccines also remain effective.
When England was fighting this, some experts told The Times that they did not think it would be a problem in terms of vaccination. Dr. Arturo Casadevall, a microbiologist at Johns Hopkins University, said that if the genetic changes had any effect on the COVID-19 vaccines, they would be minimal.
“I’m not an alarmist about this,” said Casadevall.
Even changes that significantly alter the virus’ protein spike do not affect many other targets, called epitopes, that antibodies use to recognize and kill the virus, he said.
“So for the virus to completely defeat [a] vaccine, that would have to change in many, many places where the virus binds to cells, ”he said. “And this is a very low probability event.”
California patient had not traveled abroad
He is a San Diego man in his 30s.
Dr. Eric McDonald, medical director of the San Diego County epidemiology department, said the man did not report any trips abroad before he became ill, and neither of the two patients in Colorado. The travel history was not yet available to the second person there.
In the absence of travel evidence, it appears that those with confirmed infections have contracted the virus in their communities, strongly suggesting that the UK strain is more widespread than previously believed.
“There are other cases in San Diego that we need to be aware of,” said McDonald.
The San Diego affair seems to have listened to the current order to stay at home.
“Going back two weeks, the number of activities was also very limited,” said McDonald. “There was no work activity, and there was no specific meeting … that we talked about being the potential for an outbreak in the community.”
As he had no travel history, “we believe this is not an isolated case in San Diego County,” said supervisor Nathan Fletcher during a Press conference Wednesday.
“Although it has been pointed out that there is still no evidence that the strain has more severe symptoms,” said Fletcher, “there is significant evidence that it spreads considerably faster, that it is much more contagious.”
That is all the more reason, he added, for county officials to “continue to encourage the public and beg them to please … especially for the next 72 hours and the New Year holidays, to follow the public health order. “.
Suspected more powerful strain
Authorities suspect that widespread spread in the region may suggest a more powerful variety.
But this has not yet been detected.
Authorities have yet to find any evidence of the variant in Los Angeles County, where the coronavirus is already hitting hard, according to public health director Barbara Ferrer.
“This does not mean that the variant is not circulating in LA County,” she warned during a news conference on Wednesday. “We have thousands and thousands of people being tested every day, and we are able to just sample a small number of test results and do the gene sequencing.”
If the variant is present, she added, “it doesn’t change the need for all of us to use the strategies we have now available to limit the exposure and spread of the virus.”
Winkley and Sisson write for the San Diego Union Tribune. Times staff writer Melissa Healy contributed to this report.