The United States has registered 1.5 million new cases of Covid-19 in the past seven days, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University – a 11% drop from the previous week. Cases declined in 35 states week after week, and 18 states saw a drop in the number of deaths.
“These types of fluctuations, on a statistical basis, are not sustainable,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University, told CNN.
“The virus has established itself in the human population and is not going anywhere,” said Adalja. “We will see a lot of transmission until we cross the threshold of herd immunity.”
With a far-reaching view, last week’s apparent improvement drops much closer to the average. Last month, the number of new cases of Covid-19 recorded each day ranged from almost 101,000 to more than 302,000; in the past seven days, the average number of new cases was about 218,000 per day.
These broader trends may indicate that the United States is beginning to flatten the curve, said Dr. Edison Liu of Jackson Laboratory, a nonprofit research institution.
Flattening the curve is not the end point, but it is a positive step in the right direction, Liu told CNN.
“Flattening the curve means that we stop the exponential increase in infection; whatever intervention we have worked on,” he said. “But this is just the first step. What we are really looking for is a consistent downward trend.”
It is too early to launch the vaccine to consider vaccines a factor that contributes to the reduction of cases. “There was not enough vaccination to see a complete effect nationally,” Adalja told CNN.
And new strains of the potentially more contagious virus pose an additional threat, experts say.
“It is a race against time to impose new protective behaviors and equip us against the spread of the virus,” said Liu. “If we allow it to spread, you will certainly see an increase in the number of cases.”
Despite what the data may say, experts agree that continuous surveillance is critical.
“I wouldn’t let my guard down,” said Adalja. “Biologically speaking, nothing is changing.”