JERUSALEM (AP) – Israelis began voting on Tuesday in the country’s fourth parliamentary election in two years – a highly loaded referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s divisive government.
Opinion polls predict a fierce dispute between those who support the longest-serving Israeli prime minister and those who want “anyone but Bibi,” as he is widely known.
“This is the moment of truth for the State of Israel,” said Netanyahu’s rival, Yair Lapid, when voting for Tel Aviv.
One truth: Israelis are tired of reformulation. The vote, like Israel’s world-leading vaccination campaign, had good reviews for the organization – not least because everyone involved has a lot of practice, with the potential for even more if the results don’t produce a governing majority. This response can take weeks.
“It would be better if we didn’t have to vote, you know, four times in two years,” said Jerusalem resident Bruse Rosen, after voting. “It is a little tiring.”
Candidates have given their final push in recent days, with a series of TV interviews and public appearances in malls and open-air markets. Campaigns were increasingly reaching people’s personal space with a constant flood of voting texts that made cell phones beep and buzz at any time.
At issue, more than ideology, is Netanyahu. He portrayed himself as an exceptionally qualified global statesman to lead the country through its many diplomatic and security challenges. He made Israel’s successful coronavirus vaccination campaign the centerpiece of his candidacy for re-election, and pointed to last year’s diplomatic deals with four Arab states.
The reality is more nuanced. About 80% of the country’s 9.3 million inhabitants are vaccinated and Israel is reopening, but more than 6,000 died of COVID-19. Israel has been criticized internationally for not quickly sending significant quantities of vaccines to Palestinians to combat the spread of the virus in the West Bank and Gaza.
And one of the four Arab nations, the United Arab Emirates, recently poured cold water on its relationship with Israel because its leaders did not want Netanyahu to attract them to the election campaign. President Joe Biden’s new administration also gave Netanyahu a cold welcome.
Opponents accuse Netanyahu of cheating in managing the coronavirus pandemic for most of last year. They say he failed to impose blocking restrictions on his ultra-Orthodox political allies, allowing the virus to spread, and pointed to the still dire state of the economy and its double-digit unemployment rate. They also say that Netanyahu is not fit to rule at the moment when he is on trial on various charges of corruption, a case he considers a witch hunt.
Up to 15% of the electorate is expected to vote outside their home districts, a batch of absent votes that is larger than normal to accommodate those with coronaviruses or quarantined. The government is sending special polling stations, including polling stations beside patients’ beds, to provide a means for them to vote safely.
These votes are counted separately in Jerusalem, which means that the final results can take days. Given the heated dispute, the large number of undecided voters and several small parties struggling to exceed the 3.25% threshold to enter parliament, it may be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is completed.
Israelis vote for parties, not individual candidates. No single party candidate list has been able to form a ruling majority in Israel’s 72-year history.
Netanyahu’s Likud party and those led by its rivals will look to smaller allied parties as potential coalition partners. The party that manages to form a majority coalition could form the next government – a process that is expected to take weeks.
Tuesday’s election was triggered by the disintegration of an emergency government formed last May between Netanyahu and his main rival to control the coronavirus pandemic. The alliance was plagued by internal strife and the elections were triggered by the government’s failure in December to reach an agreement on the budget.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his hard-line nationalist and traditional religious allies. This includes two ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates.
Netanyahu’s rivals have accused him of causing paralysis in the past two years, hoping to form a more favorable government that would grant him immunity or protect him from lawsuits.
His opponents include Yair Lapid, Israel’s opposition leader whose Yesh Atid party has emerged as the main centrist alternative to Netanyahu.
Lapid reflected the race’s uncompromising rhetoric on Tuesday, when it offered itself as an alternative to a “government of darkness and racism”.
Netanyahu also faces challenges from several former allies who formed their own parties after bitter break-ups with the prime minister.
They include ex-protégé Gideon Saar, who split from Likud to form “New Hope”. He says the party is a nationalist alternative free of charges of corruption and what he says is a cult of the personality that keeps Likud in power.
Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, another former adviser to Netanyahu, may emerge as the king’s creator. A hard-line nationalist politician who was Netanyahu’s Minister of Education and Defense, Bennett did not rule out joining a coalition with the embattled Prime Minister, allowing him to court both sides in future coalition negotiations.
The political personality went so far beyond the race that there was almost no mention of the Palestinians, after years of frozen peace negotiations.
Analysts expect voter fatigue to contribute to reducing participation, which had been 71% in the last election, a year ago.
Netanyahu’s religious and nationalist allies tend to be highly motivated voters. In contrast, Arab voters, disappointed by the disintegration of the umbrella group “Joint List”, are expected to stay at home in greater numbers this time. Voters in the more liberal and secular areas around Tel Aviv also tend to have lower participation rates.
Netanyahu can benefit if these trends materialize. But unlike last year’s elections, the prime minister lacks an important ally: ex-president Donald Trump, whose support he garnered in previous elections with huge billboards on highways and buildings showing the two together.
In contrast, Netanyahu barely mentioned Biden. The new US president called the prime minister only after contacting leaders from several other countries and Israel’s supporters began to complain that the delay sounded like an affront. The two men insist that their alliance remains close.
___
Follow Kellman at http://www.twitter.com/APLaurieKellman