Netanyahu falls in the polls, Yair Lapid reaches 20, Bennett and Sa’ar tie for third

Opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party reached the 20-seat mark for the first time on Thursday, when a Panels Research poll by researcher Menachem Lazar found that the party had won three seats since last week. The Jerusalem Post and Ma’ariv found that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud fell from 29 seats last week to 27. The seven-seat difference between Likud and Yesh Atid is the smallest difference between parties since the start of the election campaign. The survey also found that Bennett’s Naftali The Yamina Party closed the gap with Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope Party, and both are now serving 12 terms. It was the first vote of the Panels indicating a tie for third place.
The poll revealed that if the election were to take place now, Yisrael Beytenu would win nine seats, the Joint List and Shas eight, United Torah Judaism seven and Job five. Three parties were to win four seats: Blue and White, Meretz and the Zionist Religious Party, with each oscillating within the electoral limit of 3.25%. Any votes that go to parties that do not cross the threshold do not count towards the distribution of seats in the Knesset. The bloc that wants Netanyahu to form the next government – Likud, Shas, UTJ and the Zionist Religious Party – has received 46 seats. The bloc that does not want him to remain prime minister – Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yisrael Beytenu, Labor, Blue and White and Meretz – received 54.

Yamina could join forces with the anti-Netanyahu bloc and use its 12 seats to allow the formation of a 66-seat coalition, or 62 seats without Meretz. Bennett did not rule out joining a government led by Netanyahu, but the survey found that even with Yamina, the prime minister would not have enough support. When asked who is best suited to be prime minister, the gap between Netanyahu and Sa’ar remained at just 1% (42-41%). For the first time, the difference between Netanyahu and Bennett was also only 1% (39-38%). The difference between Netanyahu and Lapid in his ability to be prime minister is the smallest since the start of the elections: 7% (48-41%). The survey of 571 respondents representing a statistical sample of the Israeli adult population was carried out on Thursday and had a margin of error of 4.2%.