Nearly 90% of the vote was counted in Israel on Wednesday, the day after the country went to the polls to elect a new parliament, but there was no clear winner. That stalemate left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again struggling to enlist support from enough small parties of special interest to give his own party, Likud, a parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu delivered a coronavirus vaccine implementation to his country in record time, immunizing a large proportion of the country’s adults and allowing Israel’s economy to reopen fully before election day. His strategists hoped that this would generate enough votes to obtain a majority in parliament, but that was not the case.
Now he will only be able to form a new government and return as prime minister if he is able to form a coalition – and that is not certain.
A coalition of opposition parties (secular, centrist and left) could block Netanyahu’s chances by forming a majority of its own.
There are some amazing alliances in sight: a small Islamic party has not ruled out the possibility of joining Netanyahu’s right-wing government. It can shake things up.
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The same could happen with Naftali Bennet, a right-wing former defense minister under Netanyahu whose party could play the kingmaker – giving the prime minister his majority in exchange for some influential cabinet posts, which would force Netanyahu to compromise his agenda. Bennet can also decide to join an opposition coalition.
Another potential kingmaker may be Arab leader Mansour Abbas, who recently positioned himself as an ally of Netanyahu. Your party has five seats to contribute, but, of course, it would also ask for political concessions in return.
Only two things are certain at this stage. First, the Israelis fear the prospect of returning to the polls this summer if a majority coalition proves to be impossible. Second: Netanyahu is due to return to court in April to stand trial for fraud and bribery.
These procedures will undoubtedly weigh on the minds of the Prime Minister’s friends, enemies and those who are still deciding how to play their cards while the dispute and negotiation continues – a process that should drag on throughout the week.
This is not Netanyahu’s first coalition dispute after an undecided electoral performance by Likud. A little less than a year ago, the Israeli Supreme Court gave him the go-ahead to form his current coalition government, while he grapples with corruption charges.