Throw away your brackets.
Anyone who boldly called Oral Roberts’ No. 15 seed on Ohio (and Florida!) Or Loyola Chicago on Illinois’s No. 1 seed is a legitimate diviner.
This March madness has been historically unpredictable, with four double-digit seeds reaching the second weekend of the NCAA men’s tournament. It is the first time that four teams seeded on the 11th or less are on Sweet 16.
It is also impressive that the powerful Big Ten – the best conference in the NET ranking – sent nine teams to the Big Dance and only one (number 1 seed Michigan) is still standing. Especially in contrast to the Pac-12, which has four teams set to face each other on Saturday and Sunday in Indianapolis.
But now that the smoke has cleared, we have an idea of each of the remaining 16 teams. A look at some bold predictions for the rest of the tournament:
1. Double-digit seeds reach Elite Eight. Both UCLA and Syracuse were teams from the NCAA bubble that barely made it to the field of 68. Now they are among the remaining 16 teams. Both teams played their best basketball brand and are able to get more surprises, this time against the runner-up. Coach Mick Cronin has Bruins (20-9) rolling now, spraying Abilene Christian by 20 and crossing Brigham Young by 11. But this will be a more difficult task against a SEC champion Alabama team. If UCLA guards – namely Johnny Juzang – manage to win ‘Bama’s, this game can be won. Much of Syracuse’s performance – defeating San Diego State and West Virginia – was based on the hot shot by coach Jim Boeheim’s son Buddy. The snipers made 13 triples and added 55 points in two games of the tournament. If he is beyond the arc, the runner-up, Houston, is in trouble against Orange (18-9).
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SWEET 16: Sorting the remaining men’s teams from best to worst
NO, AND YOU: This March is crazier than ever. The seeds of the remaining NCAA men’s tournament show this
2. Michigan is the second No. 1 to fall. The Wolverines (22-4) are the last remaining male team of the Big Ten (out of the nine who won moves), and even though they were able to defend themselves from LSU in the second round, it could be a bigger challenge to move from a long athlete Florida state team. This is the type of physical game in which the loss of Isaiah Livers, Michigan’s backbone over the course of the season, can be costly. FSU has a lineup that can put more pressure than usual on 7-1 Hunter Dickinson and 6-9 Franz Wagner, the team’s two stars.
3. Baylor does not make it to the Final Four. The Bears (24-2) are the favorites to win everything and defeat Gonzaga undefeated in the game for the national title. The problem is that the way to get there is quite complicated. Villanova number 5 is not at full strength with Collin Gillespie out. But the Wildcats were sharp in their first two games and can give Baylor a real test. The legitimate threat, however, is Arkansas – assuming the Razorbacks reach Elite Eight over Cinderella Oral Roberts. This is the kind of offensive team that can stifle Bears. Coach Eric Musselman’s team in Arkansas is loaded with offensive weapons, and will be an epic defensive clash between Razorback guards Moses Moody, JD Notae and Jalen Tate against Baylor guards Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell.
4. Southern California defeats Oregon and Gonzaga and reaches the Final Four. The way the Trojans (24-7) looked when defeating Kansas by 34 points in the second round, they looked like they could beat any remaining team in the tournament. But the undefeated Gonzaga – the national title favorite? It is possible for several reasons. As dominant as the ‘Zags (28-0) were, they were not tested in West Coast Conference games or in the first two rounds of the NCAAs. How will Drew Timme de Gonzaga cope with USC star Evan Mobley? The battle of the giants will be a must. Coach Andy Enfield has a defense that is in fifth place in the national ranking in allowed points and will give favorites Bulldogs everything they can. There is also the notion of pressure and psyche of the player. The last undefeated team that made it this far, Kentucky in 2015, lost in the Final Four despite being one of the most dominant teams for coach John Calipari. What happens when Gonzaga faces his first real test?
5. Loyola Chicago cuts the nets. The Ramblers (26-4) are no longer a Cinderella. This is a team that disputes the national title with the best defense in the country – limiting opponents to 55.8 points per game and leading KenPom’s efficiency indexes (86.1). The last team to hold on to these statistics during an NCAA tournament – Virginia – won the national title in 2019. But coach Porter Moser’s attack is also not sloppy. It is based on the spacing and patience of the late coach Rick Majerus’ manual.
This slows down the pace and allows a well-disciplined midfield offense to take an up-tempo team completely out of pace. Cameron Krutwig (15.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) is the key to Loyola Chicago swaying like he did in a huge turnaround in No. 1 Illinois. With a slower pace, Loyola can beat anyone in the Midwest Region – or any other team region for that matter.
Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
This article was originally published in USA TODAY: March Madness’ bold predictions evaluate the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament