When looking at this year’s NCAA NCAA Women’s Tournament Final Four, there are three teams that most people felt would be here in Stanford, South Carolina and UConn’s No. 1 ranking. These three teams jumped into the top five throughout the season and found themselves playing their best basketball at the NCAA Tournament.
There is one team, however, that most people could not have predicted: Arizona. The Wildcats, led by trainer Adia Barnes, have had a magical run through the tournament so far, defeating Texas A&M No. 2 in Sweet 16, and Indiana’s 4th in Elite Eight to reach the first Final Four the fifth year with Barnes.
They also have one of the best players in the country, Aari McDonald. A veteran McDonald’s decided to return to Arizona after canceling the NCAA tournament last year to do just that: help Arizona make it to the Final Four.
McDonald, a shipowner, will be joined in this Final Four by other elite shipowners. If you love guarding, you will love this Final Four. For UConn, Arizona’s opponent in the national semifinal, the shipowner needs no introduction. Paige Bueckers, who was recently voted AP National Player of the Year, scored 28 points in Huskies Elite Eight’s exciting victory over Baylor. On the other side of the key, where Stanford will face South Carolina, senior Cardinal Kiana Williams and South Carolina sophomore Zia Cooke will highlight a clash between two of the best teams in the country and two of the best coaches in history in Tara VanDerveer and Dawn Staley.
Barnes and Staley are about to make history on their own, as this will be the first time in history that two black head coaches will make it to the Final Four.
Barnes, VanDerveer and Staley also joined Geno Auriemma, a coach who is no stranger to this phase and who has 11 national championships under his belt.
Coaches, players and program history will provide a lot of stories and excitement, as this Final Four is bound to be great. Which teams take advantage? What factors will dictate a winner and a possible champion? Let’s take a look.
No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 1 South Carolina
When: Friday, 18h Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live broadcast: fuboTV (try it for free)
Stanford overcame a 12-point handicap at the interval for Louisville in the Elite Eight by defeating the Cardinals by 27 points in the second half on the way to a 15-point victory. The cardinal, who is led by Williams and also by super-student Haley Jones, received a tremendous game from Ashten Prechtel, who scored 16 points off the bench, hitting a perfect 6 out of 6 on the field. Lexie Hull ended with the team’s highest score, 21 points, while Jones dominated the cup, ending with 10 points and 10 rebounds.
Anna Wilson is the strong defender of the VanDerveer team and will likely tie the task of protecting Cooke in the semifinal. Freshman Cameron Brink is the anchor of Stanford’s internal defense and scored nine points and four blocks in limited minutes. She left with an injury, but came back to see the limited action and must be ready to go on Friday night.
South Carolina is led by Cooke’s dynamic combination of guard and AP First Team All-American Aliyah Boston. Cooke, who was voted the most outstanding player in the Hemisfair region, scored 16 points in South Carolina’s easy 28-point win over sixth in Texas. Boston ended the game with 10 points and eight rebounds and has been a consistent double-double threat throughout the season.
Destinni Henderson, Victaria Saxton and Brea Beal complete the starting lineup of the Staley team and complete one of the five most talented starters in the country. Laeticia Amihere is her spark off the bench and the score on the bench will be the key to South Carolina in this game, as Stanford is the strongest team in the country. In fact, this semifinal clash could pit the two strongest teams in the country against each other for a place in the championship.
Who wins?
In early December, I chose UConn to beat South Carolina in the national championship game. There is a great chance that this will happen, however, I have completely moved from Stanford. They just have so many guns and really played only a bad half in the last month and it was the first half against Louisville.
For South Carolina to win, Cooke needs to make a big game. I hope Boston plays very well. The Boston vs. Clash Domestic Brink will be fun to watch, but Brink is prone to getting himself into serious trouble, and there may not be a more shrewd and polished post in the country than Boston. I think the Gamecocks won the war on the inside, but Stanford’s ability to have multiple players take down all three could be the difference. This, together with Wilson’s defense, will send the cardinal back to the national championship game. Prediction: Stanford 78, South Carolina 71
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 3 Arizona
When: Friday, 21:30 Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live broadcast: fuboTV (try it for free)
It doesn’t really matter how UConn got here, the fact is that the Huskies are here and deservedly so.
Their Elite Eight game against Baylor was a national championship level game, which should serve this team very well on Friday evening. Although we are used to seeing UConn compete on this stage, the fact is that only Christyn Williams and Olivia Nelson-Ododa have been here and have previous tournament experience. This is what made the UConn game and the victory over Baylor all the more significant. It is impossible to simulate that level of competition on this stage.
Bueckers is the leader and focal point of the Auriemma team. She can help the Huskies to defeat him in a number of ways. She is able to go out and lose a triple-double and score only 15 or 16 points, or she can beat him by scoring 28 or 30, as she did against Baylor. She is a breeder on the offensive side and the Wildcats will be very committed to trying to stop her.
Williams was also excellent, especially in UConn’s Sweet 16 victory over Iowa, where he finished with 27 points. Evina Westbrook finished just a shy triple-double rebound in that game too, and will be critical for the Huskies at both ends of the court. Nelson-Ododa and freshman Aaliyah Edwards will have to control the glass and the interior defensively, so they have been fantastic in this tournament.
As mentioned earlier, Arizona is making its first appearance, but don’t be fooled. Barnes will have his team ready and they are confident. Although they have not been in this phase before, they are the most experienced (by age) starting with five in Final Four, starting with three seniors and two juniors. They are also led by McDonald, who has been named a second AP All-American team, and is having consecutive performances of more than 30 points that helped guide the Wildcats to the national semifinals.
Arizona boasts the 13th best scoring defense in the country on Friday night and consists of a series of games against some of the best teams in the country playing in Pac-12. Trinity Baptiste, Cate Reese, Sam Thomas and Bendu Yeaney complete the initial lineup for the Wildcats and it is a lineup that can really go after him defensively. The question is who will be the second and third top scorers? Baptiste finished with 12 in the victory over Indiana, but nobody else finished with more than six. This will be crucial if the Wildcats want to turn things around.
Who wins?
I think the main difference here is who will be the second and third top scorer for each team. The Huskies have several players who have proven they can do this, led by Williams and Westbrook. Baptiste, Reese, Yeaney and Thomas have the ability to praise McDonald’s scores, but have not been as consistent as you would like to see.
McDonald’s probably going to call the defensive task of protecting Bueckers and I see her attacking Bueckers. I don’t think it will be easy for UConn, as two of the first 15 saves are ready to play in this one. In the end, I think UConn has a lot of offensive firepower. Nor do I think Williams will allow McDonald to attack again. If the game is 8 to 10 points in the first half, Arizona will reach the end, as their confidence will only increase as the game progresses. They are also playing with a huge weight on the shoulder and with tremendous joy. This is a dangerous combination, but I will be taking UConn. Prediction: UConn 72, Arizona 59
National Championship: Stanford vs. UConn
When: Sunday, 18h Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live broadcast: fuboTV (try it for free)
Any confrontation we have in the national championship will be great, but a Stanford-UConn game would see the two most winning coaches in college basketball history and two of the three most winning coaches in college basketball history against each other in VanDerveer and Auriemma.
This would also give us the experienced senior Stanford Williams owner against the UConn freshman sensation Bueckers, and a clash of the last two best-ranked recruits in Jones (2019) and Bueckers (2020). In the end, it would simply give us a tremendous game of basketball. I chose UConn in December. I chose Stanford in March. I remain with the cardinal because I chose them just four weeks ago. Depth and balance. Stanford wins in OT. Prediction: Stanford 84, UConn 81 (OT)