NC climate: Risk of damaging wind, severe storms increased to level 4 out of 5 on Thursday in Raleigh and the rest of central North Carolina

RALEIGH, NC (WTVD) – A warmer and relatively clear Wednesday will give way to a potentially dangerous Thursday.

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Bad weather passing through Deep South on Wednesday is expected to arrive in central North Carolina on Thursday afternoon.

New climate models have caused the National Weather Service to increase our risk of severe weather from improved to moderate. This is a rare level of risk.

The last time downtown North Carolina was at moderate risk of severe weather the day before the storms hit was in late December 2012. Although, truth be told, that severe risk has lessened. The storms that arrived did not cause reports of serious damage.

The exact timing of the storms remains in flux, but the First Alert Team said the latest information suggests that most storms will arrive in the middle of the afternoon and disappear in the early evening.

The likelihood of harmful wind is at the highest possible risk level. There is an almost 45 percent chance that a damaging straight-line wind will occur somewhere in central North Carolina. That means gusts of wind anywhere from 70-90 miles per hour.

The tornado threat is less likely, but still possible. The threat level is moderate, which translates to a 15 percent chance that an EF2-EF5 tornado will happen.

Localized flooding and hail are also possible with the system.

WATCH: Big Weather details the most likely scenarios for Thursday’s storm

Something to keep an eye on happens on Thursday morning. That was when we were able to see some scattered rains before the arrival of the strong storms.

The presence of showers on Thursday mornings would be a good sign, according to ABC11 meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker. He said morning rains would help to stabilize the atmosphere, which could reduce the severity of storms when they arrived later in the day.

When this weather event ends, the rain can last until Friday. Daytime temperatures reach 40 degrees with gusts of wind.

Saturday and Sunday will see temperatures in the 50’s, with more sun on Saturday and more heat on Sunday.

If you’re a fan of the hottest spring weather, the 70s will return next week.

GMA’s Ginger Zee joins the first severe weather warning team