Houston Rockets are switching from Victor Oladipo to the Miami Heat, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The Heat is sending back Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley and a 2022 choice exchange, by The Athletic’s Shams Charania. The deal marks the end of Oladipo’s brief term in Houston. Oladipo had already spent the past three seasons and changes with the Indiana Pacers, but was surprisingly negotiated with the Rockets as part of James Harden’s blockbuster. At that point, Houston seemed interested in remaining competitive after negotiating with Harden. However, those dreams were dashed when Christian Wood suffered an ankle injury and the Rockets lost 20 games in a row. Now Houston is dispatching Oladipo months before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Oladipo was an All-NBA player during the 2017-18 season with the Pacers, but things have only gotten worse since then. He suffered a series of minor injuries early in the 2018-19 season before breaking a quadruple tendon that knocked him out for over a year. He was not the same when he returned to the Pacers, and when they saw the opportunity to exchange him for Caris LeVert, they grabbed her. In 20 games like Rocket, Oladipo averaged 21.2 points with 40.7 percent of field shots and 32 percent behind the hoop. This inefficiency scared some suitors, but Oladipo was once a star. The advantage of acquiring it at the lowest point of its value in the hope of taking it back to that level was quite attractive.
Oladipo could not ask for a better hostel than Miami. He has been interested in joining the Heat for some time now, and few teams have a better track record when it comes to helping players recapture the glory of the past. In Oladipo, Heat is receiving the defensive guard that was lacking most of the season due to Avery Bradley’s injuries. He will be able to defend the main opposing guards, a necessity at the Brooklyn conference, and to lead offensive bank units, which tend to struggle when Jimmy Butler rests. Their pitches are a slight concern alongside Butler and Bam Adebayo, but Heat runs a movement-based egalitarian system that they have probably already created solutions that will maximize the trio. In addition, with the shots they have elsewhere, the Heat is not exactly lacking in spacing. Although Oladipo was not himself this season, the cost of the deal outweighs the risk for Miami. They gave up very little to acquire a player with star potential. This gives them a very good score for the business as a whole.
Miami receives:
Houston receives:
Type of heat trade: A
This was an absolute no-brainer for the Heat. Olynyk’s role in the rotation would likely be minimized after the Nemanja Bjelica negotiation, especially if LaMarcus Aldridge joins the Heat through a purchase. Bradley barely played this season and, at the very least, was behind Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson in the depth table. Even if they were not interested in Oladipo, the cost was so low that there was practically no reason not to make this switch.
Of course, they were interested in Oladipo. It had been a while. The only problem was that they apparently preferred Kyle Lowry. At the end of the term, the potential opportunity cost of a deal with Oladipo seemed to be the chance to finally get Lowry. If the Heat had not switched to Lowry, common sense would suggest that another team would, and then they would have used their bird rights to hire him again in the off-season.
Well, Lowry was not traded. In a sense, this allows the Heat to have his cake and eat it too. They are going to do a test with Oladipo for the next few months and see if he fits for a long time. If he is? Great. Sign it again. If no? Oh well. Miami still has almost as much space this offseason. They can rotate towards Lowry quite easily.
The short-term implications are somewhat confusing, but still promising. Lineups with Oladipo, Butler and Adebayo can be a little tight. They can mitigate these concerns by playing the three alongside Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, and with Bjelica acquired as well, the Heat has more than enough added shot to compensate. Oladipo immediately becomes Miami’s best defensive guard, and his fight against Brooklyn suddenly looks much cleaner. Oladipo is likely to protect Kyrie Irving. Butler will likely protect James Harden. Adebayo will likely protect Kevin Durant. Butler and Oladipo are malleable enough to deal with different alignments involving these stars, but the basic principle is the same: Heat now has three high-level defenders on its starting lineup to launch the three-star Nets.
In the aggregate, the Heat essentially transformed Bradley, Olynyk, Moe Harkless and Meyers Leonard into Oladipo, Bjelica, Trevor Ariza and potentially Aldridge using only smaller draft capital to shine the wheels. It is an absolute success for Miami. Where they stand in relation to the other contenders of the Eastern Conference is subjective. If Oladipo isn’t old Oladipo, they probably still don’t have enough to beat Brooklyn. But they just added a 20-point scorer who can defend in an expired contract for players who were leaving the rotation anyway. In almost all circumstances, this is a home run business.
Commercial rocket class: D
The Rockets switched to Victor Oladipo with this day in mind. If they were looking for a long-term cornerstone for the James Harden deal, they probably would have kept Caris LeVert. Instead, they added Oladipo hoping they could cash it out for more on time. Well, the deadline has come, and the Rockets have essentially achieved nothing for him. This makes Harden’s business look even worse in retrospect. Three players from that trade remain in Houston: Olynyk, Bradley and Dante Exum. Damn.
The main motivation behind this business was the acquisition of initial capital. To be fair, Houston understood a lot. But the value of the player and the value of the draft did not have to be mutually exclusive. The Rockets could have taken control of Brooklyn’s choices in the first round for the next seven seasons and acquired LeVert and Jarrett Allen. Instead, they attacked a player whose value was decreasing and made a big mistake.
The saving grace of this business is that it doesn’t hurt the Rockets. They did not accept long-term money. In fact, you can argue that losing Oladipo will help them lose games, which is essential for them this season, since Oklahoma City has the right to exchange the final choice of Miami in the first round for theirs, if it doesn’t fall between the first four. The worse the Rockets play, the more likely they are to keep their choice.
But the Rockets were losing pretty well on their own even before that deal. In the end, this agreement only removes an asset from the Harden agreement. The best player Houston got for a franchise icon had to be dismissed in time for any remains the Rockets could find. If they could do it all over again, they would certainly take LeVert. If nothing else, he would have sought a little more than nothing. That’s all they have for Oladipo.