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Jacob Kupferman / Associated Press
The NBA does not want teams to press the red button.
The reduced lottery odds made the race for the fund less guaranteed, and the addition of a play-in tournament last year expanded the list of “post-season” participants at each conference to 10. These are clear disincentives for exchanging talent and lose goal.
End a season with the worst record in the championship and congratulations: you have only 14% chance in the main team, exactly the same as the teams that finished with the second and third worst marks. Tank is not what it used to be.
It will be particularly challenging to try an expansion strategy this season. The first-round choices that most organizations want in exchange for their expensive vets are in short supply.
In light of all this, the situation must be especially desperate to justify the demolition – marked by a shortage of promising pillars, a lack of direction, a few kilometers in the wake of mediocrity, very well-paid players who fail to increase the ceiling franchise, impending contract quagmires and / or a culture that locks a team in a lost routine.
It never made less sense to blow it up. But if someone is going to push that button, these teams should be the first to consider him.
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Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press
We should probably start with a handful of contractual decisions pushing the Chicago Bulls to a fresh start, as their game this year was not bad enough on its own to justify a position here. Chicago is in the mix for a play-in point.
With that said, it is time for a decision on Lauri Markkanen, who failed to reach an extension agreement with the Bulls before the season and now has a ticket to a restricted free agency this summer. Pick number 7 in 2017 showed flashes of extensive scoring (career 35.7 percent deep) with an occasional streak of medium attack. But he has had problems with injuries every year and is still in a defensive position.
The Bulls clearly have a number that they don’t want to reach in their new deal. Although they have equal rights this summer, failed extension talks often foreshadow a breakup.
Zach LaVine is a valuable scorer, but his annual habit of giving more in defense than in attack is intact. He has been a consistent negative network throughout his career, but has never had a lower on-off differential than what he posted in 2020-21. He has another year on his contract after this. If the Bulls see Coby White (equally unstable in D) as their long-term response, they cannot move on with LaVine as their running mate. You cannot plug two holes in the dam when both are so big.
Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky’s 2021-22 salaries are only partially guaranteed, and Otto Porter Jr.’s business comes out of the books after this year as well.
Chicago could move one or all of these players by value, and it should. None of them project to be worth what they will receive next year – let alone Markkanen, who may see an unexpected offer sheet in what appears to be a thinner than expected free agent class.
In the past three years, the Bulls finished 13th, 13th and 11th in the East. This core, if retained, has no strength or advantage to improve dramatically in these positions.
It’s time to cut the bait for everyone except for White, Patrick Williams and Wendell Carter Jr.
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Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press
James Harden’s exchange made the ball roll, and the Houston Rockets would be better served by this wave of momentum focused on the future.
John Wall’s presence complicates this approach. He’s guaranteed $ 91.6 million in both seasons after this and is among the least palatable contracts in the league.
The business that is expiring from Victor Oladipo is definitely one for shopping, however. Houston, clearly not wanting to pay the luxury tax in recent years, opted to take it back in the Harden deal instead of Caris LeVert – a younger, cost-effective and arguably better option. The Rockets could be perfectly happy to let Oladipo walk for nothing, but they could also extract a choice through trade, ideally without getting the long-term salary back.
PJ Tucker, who is also in an expiring deal, is expected to incite a bidding war between competitors.
Eric Gordon has two more fully guaranteed years after this for a total of just under $ 38 million, followed by $ 20.9 million unsecured in 2023-24. This business is not going to age well, and Gordon, who can always count on losing a few weeks a year, is playing better now than he has since 2017-18. The time to move it is now.
Houston is in a consolidation phase after negotiating Harden, and the worst thing it could do now is to adopt half measures. Christian Wood is a guardian – at least offensively – and he is young enough at 25 to be seen as a pillar of the next era.
Anything else that is not right should go. All Brooklyn Nets ‘choices could form the basis of a gradual post-disassembly rebuild or lubricate the skates to move some of the Rockets’ rotten contracts.
Houston has the tools to restart. You must summon the will to put them to use.
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AJ MAST / Associated Press
The Orlando Magic has not escaped the first round of the playoffs since 2010, which was Dwight Howard’s peak. Howard is now in his 35-year season and has played for six teams since leaving Orlando, which helps to contextualize how long Magic has been wandering in the desert.
Few teams better exemplify life in limbo than Magic, which lived in that soft and meaningless environment for a decade. It is not bad enough to start again; not good enough to do more than sulk after a beating in the first round. That is magic in a nutshell.
Shouldn’t Orlando be tired of this? In fact, shouldn’t you have grown tired of it three or four years ago?
Enough is enough. Nikola Vucevic is one of the best offensive savvy in the league, and his average is the best of his career at 23.2 points with 57.4 percent of a true shot. It has never been better, which is exactly why now is the time to move it. No one likes suspiciously defensive switching centers, but Vooch provides enough offensive power for teams to view their business (two more years with an average of $ 23 million after this) as a good investment.
Looking at you, Boston Celtics.
Aaron Gordon has spent almost his entire career in the commercial block, and although he is five years younger than Vucevic, the 25-year-old has been practically the same “solid starter on a bad team” for the past three seasons. Maybe he has another level within him, but it is clear that he is not reaching him in Orlando.
Evan Fournier’s contract expires after this season, and Terrence Ross could spark interest as a sixth player for a goal-hungry candidate. These are mobile contracts, and the urgency of dispatching them is only amplified by the presence of Magic business can not move.
Jonathan Isaac will not play this season because of another serious knee injury, but his $ 80 million span for four years is valid for 2021-22. Markelle Fultz fell earlier this year with her own torn ACL, and is in the accounts at $ 16.5 million in 2021-22 and 2022-23, with $ 17 million largely unsecured in 2023-24. The players most likely to get Orlando out of purgatory are extremely risky investments that will not be healthy enough to contribute until next season.
Despite the lower expected tank value, Magic is one of the teams that should think more about following this path anyway. It would be one thing if the available vets were the remains of a successful nucleus trying to squeeze one last run before breaking up or aging. But this group peaks in layoffs in the first round of five games.
This is a bleak future, so Orlando should be trying to build a brighter one.
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Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press
Considering that he played less than 100 NBA games, Marvin Bagley III still cannot be considered a defeat. But unless you are convinced that a frontline player can become a key player without stretching the ground or defending safely, you can safely bet that he will not be a quality holder in a winner.
The Sacramento Kings have the league’s biggest playoff drought for a number of reasons, but one of them fails to capitalize on the highly recruited position. Bagley, who led Luka Doncic in 2018, is proof of that.
At least the Kings deserve credit for grabbing De’Aaron Fox in 2017 and Tyrese Haliburton in the past off season. The two project themselves as legitimate difference makers, with Fox’s athleticism and Haliburton’s feeling giving Sacramento one of the league’s most exciting defenders.
Everything else, from players to style, training and culture, can go.
It is difficult in Sacramento, with the same refrains tired of lack of consistency and not knowing how to win coming up this year. The only difference this season is that the barrier to entry into the playoffs has decreased. The Kings do not seem close to eliminating it. This is what you have to have the worst defense of all time.
Coach Luke Walton has not come up with a tactical approach that takes full advantage of the squad, players’ discontent arises annually and it is impossible to build sustainable success with such a bad defense.
It’s painful to suggest starting over when Sacramento hasn’t won 40 games in a season since 2005-06, but other than Fox and Haliburton, there’s nothing worth holding on to here.
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Nick Wass / Associated Press
Bradley Beal will be the next big star involved in a trade. It has to be. The Washington Wizards have no other choice.
Sitting at the bottom of the East and once again on the field a defense that transforms all enemy attacks on the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, the Wizards are the worst combination of expensive and uncompetitive.
Russell Westbrook, in decline and owed more than $ 91 million after this season, is going nowhere. He will do a complete rebuild while on the list – mainly because of his (high) salary and production (slipping), but also partly because his competitive spinning will not tolerate deliberate failure. Washington gave up a first-round choice in the negotiation that left John Wall for Russ, and it appears that the draft compensation should have gone the other way.
Scroll through the list and the only basic advocates (taking into account the cost) are Beal, Deni Avdija and Isaac Bonga. Troy Brown Jr., Thomas Bryant (with a torn ACL) and Rui Hachimura deserve consideration, but they are not blockades.
Beal is arguably the most valuable commercial piece likely to be successful this year, and he can bring back several assets that may be worth more than Avdija or Bonga. Wizards need this kind of high-volume approach to accumulate assets.
Coach Scott Brooks is in the final year of the contract, which suggests he is leaving. Teams do not tend to experience difficult seasons and the uncertainties they bring … unless there is no intention to extend the relationship. With a massive exchange of Beal and a likely turnover of coaches on the horizon, the Wizards are the league’s most obvious candidates.
All we need to do is count the days until Beal finally floats, he will be open to playing elsewhere. His control at the front was almost supernatural, but it won’t last forever.
Statistics courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.