- Opposition activist Navalny overcame Russia’s Putin at all stages, despite being in prison, national security sources say.
- If Putin kills Navalny, it could exacerbate public unrest.
- If Putin lets Navalny live, Navalny will remain a focus of resistance.
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A weekend of demonstrations against President Vladimir Putin, triggered by the arrest of opposition and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, put Putin in a strange situation, according to European diplomats and intelligence officials.
Putin suddenly has no good and obvious options for dealing with Navalny, a longtime critic of the Russian autocrat.
Navalny had just returned from Germany to Russia, where he recovered from poisoning last August, while in Tomsk, Russia, probably by Putin’s supporters. He was arrested after his arrival – which only enhanced his profile.
This seems to be getting in the way of Putin’s favorite narrative, which is that Navalny is an irrelevant fly and not the leader of a mass movement that can return democracy to Russia.
Putin has never faced a challenge like this before
Demonstrations across Russia on Saturday produced tens of thousands of protesters across the country – and not just in liberal cities in the West that are often seen as bases of support for Navalny, but pose little immediate threat to the regime.
Navalny’s ability to explain the depths of corruption at Putin’s team, and his survival from a Baroque poison plot that used a substance available only to Russian intelligence, represents a unique challenge, the kind that Putin has never faced before, several said. employees to Insider.
Half a dozen EU diplomats and intelligence officials share the view that Navalny’s repeated provocations against Putin have changed the equation in Russia.
‘Navalny has beaten Putin in every turn since the poisoning’
Since Putin’s agents tried to kill him on August 20, Navalny:
- He survived long enough to be transferred to Germany for successful treatment.
- He used his three-month recovery to investigate the attack with journalists.
- He tricked a Russian intelligence agent to admit the plot on an open phone line.
- He returned to Moscow despite threats of imprisonment.
- Launched a two-hour documentary detailing Putin’s corruption last week while he was in prison
- And it ended the same week with the organization of Russia’s biggest and most aggressive anti-Putin protests in more than a decade.
Observers are unable to predict exactly what will happen next, because Putin is trapped in a Catch-22: if Putin kills Navalny, it could draw more attention to the problem and aggravate public unrest. If Putin lets Navalny live, Navalny will remain a focus of resistance, whether he is in prison or not.
“Navalny has overtaken Putin in every maneuver since the poisoning. It’s becoming a little humiliating for him and I’m not sure how safe Navalny can be now,” said a central European intelligence officer, who works at the Russian-related desk – intelligence. “Navalny was supposed to die last summer and there would have been some protests, some arrests, maybe some sanctions – Putin survived the [2015 assassination of dissident politician Boris] Nemstov was fine because Boris was dead and all that was left was the indignation that ended up disappearing. Navally alive is a big problem. “
‘I worry that Putin, normally calm and cold, may be a little upset because Navalny makes him look weak’
“I worry that Putin, who is normally calm and cool, may be a little disturbed because Navalny makes him look weak to his oligarchs and comrades in the security services,” added the official. “It wouldn’t be prudent to kill him in custody with the whole world watching, but the pressure is immense.”
Putin also lost his main US ally – former President Donald Trump – who would not have put pressure on Navalny’s freedom.
European officials met across the continent on Monday to discuss responses to weekend events. They are optimistic about the arrival of the new diplomatic team of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, who has already shown more enthusiasm for involvement in Russian issues than the previous government.
“The Biden team has just taken action and this [situation] it will represent a timely challenge for the United States and Europe to work together, “said a Western European diplomat, who asked not to be named due to ongoing meetings throughout the day in Brussels on the matter.
“We hope and have seen a strong commitment to confront Russia on issues such as human rights, transparency and corruption on the US side and there will be extensive meetings in Navalny as the situation develops.”
“In addition, there are not many specific details to report yet, it is an ongoing process.”
With Trump’s departure, Putin can no longer wait for the US to look away
The US State Department released a statement on Saturday in support of the protesters, which has already angered Russian officials.
“The United States will stand shoulder to shoulder with our allies and partners in the defense of human rights – whether in Russia or wherever they are under threat,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price.
This drew a response from Kremlin press secretary Dmitri Peskov, who told the Guardian: “We are not ready for the dictate, we are not ready for rudeness and we are not ready to cross the red lines.”
“A lot of people will say that a lot of people attended this illegal rally,” said Peskov. “No. Few people came, but many voted for Putin. And many voted for constitutional reform” that will allow Putin to run for president until 2036, he continued. “If you compare the numbers, you’ll see how few people there were.”