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Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny overcame Putin in all maneuvers despite being in prison, national security sources say.
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If Putin kills Navalny, it could exacerbate public unrest.
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If Putin lets Navalny live, Navalny will remain a focus of resistance.
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A weekend of demonstrations against Russian President Vladimir Putin, triggered by the arrest of opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, has put Putin in a strange corner, according to European diplomats and intelligence officials.
Putin suddenly has no good and obvious options for dealing with Navalny, a longtime critic of the Russian autocrat.
Earlier this month, Navalny returned from Germany to Russia, where he recovered from the poisoning last August, while in Tomsk, Russia, most likely by supporters of Putin. He was arrested after his arrival – which only enhanced his profile.
This seems to be getting in the way of Putin’s favorite narrative, which is that Navalny is an irrelevant fly and not the leader of a movement that can return democracy to Russia.
Putin has never faced a challenge like this before
Tens of thousands of people protested across Russia on Saturday – and not just in liberal cities in the west, which are often seen as bases for Navalny’s support, but pose little immediate threat to the government.
Navalny’s ability to explain the depths of corruption at Putin’s team – and his survival from a Baroque poison plot that used a substance available only to Russian intelligence – represents a challenge that Putin never faced, several officials told Insider.
Half a dozen EU diplomats and intelligence officials shared the view that Navalny’s repeated provocations against Putin changed the equation in Russia.
‘Navalny has beaten Putin in every turn since the poisoning’
Since Putin’s agents tried to kill him on August 20, Navalny:
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He survived long enough to be transferred to Germany for successful treatment.
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He used his three-month recovery to investigate the attack with journalists.
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He tricked a Russian intelligence agent to admit the plot on an open phone line.
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He returned to Moscow despite threats of imprisonment.
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He released a two-hour documentary last week – while he was in prison – detailing Putin’s corruption.
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It organized Russia’s biggest and most aggressive anti-Putin protests in more than a decade.
Observers are unable to predict what will happen next, because Putin is in a Catch-22: if Putin kills Navalny, it could draw more attention to the problem and compound the unrest. If Putin lets Navalny live, Navalny will remain a focus of resistance, whether he is in prison or not.
“Navalny has overtaken Putin in every shift since the poisoning. It’s becoming a little humiliating for him, and I’m not sure how safe Navalny can be right now,” said a central European intelligence officer working on Russia-related counterintelligence. .
“Navalny should have died last summer, and there would have been some protests, some arrests, maybe some sanctions,” said the official. While Putin survived the assassination of dissident politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015 “well because Boris was dead and all that was left was the indignation that ended up disappearing,” continued the official, “Navalny alive is a big problem”.
‘I worry that Putin, normally calm and cold, may be a little upset because Navalny makes him look weak’
“I am concerned that Putin, who is normally calm and cool, may be a little disturbed because Navalny makes him look weak to his oligarchs and security cohorts,” added the official. “It wouldn’t be prudent to kill him in custody with the whole world watching, but the pressure is immense.”
Putin also lost his main U.S. ally, Donald Trump, who probably would not have put pressure on Navalny’s freedom.
European officials met across the continent on Monday to discuss responses to weekend events. They are optimistic about the arrival of the diplomatic team of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, who has already shown more enthusiasm for engaging in Russian issues than the previous government.
“The Biden team has just taken action, and this [situation] it will represent a timely challenge for the US and Europe to work together, “said a Western European diplomat, who asked not to be named due to daytime meetings in Brussels on the matter.
“We hope and have already seen a strong commitment to confront Russia on issues such as human rights, transparency and corruption on the US side, and there will be extensive meetings in Navalny as the situation develops.
“In addition, there are not many details yet to be reported; it is an ongoing process.”
With Trump’s departure, Putin can no longer wait for the US to look away
The US State Department released a statement on Saturday in support of the protesters, which has already angered Russian officials.
“The United States will stand shoulder to shoulder with our allies and partners in the defense of human rights – whether in Russia or wherever they are under threat,” said Ned Price, a department spokesman.
This drew a response from Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, who told The Guardian: “We are not ready for the dictate, we are not ready for the rudeness and we are not ready to cross the line.”
“A lot of people are going to say that a lot of people attended this illegal rally,” said Peskov. “No. Few people attended, but many voted for Putin.”
Peskov added that “many people voted for constitutional reform” that would allow Putin to run for president until 2036. “If you compare the numbers, you will see how few people there were.”
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