Navalny movement rejects protests while dragging on for a long time

Instead, his movement will focus on parliamentary elections in September, when his supporters hope to overthrow the ruling United Russia party, loyal to President Vladimir Putin.

The demonstrations triggered repression by the authorities as the police beat the protesters and detained thousands, including many of the opposition leader’s main allies. That use of force put ordinary Russians who gravitated around the movement on a dangerous path of confrontation with the Kremlin, said Leonid Volkov, one of Navalny’s top lieutenants.

“Tens of millions of people watched in horror [Mr. Putin] showed that he was ready to beat peaceful and unarmed protesters with his assault troops, ”said Volkov in a video for supporters on Thursday.

Last Sunday, Russian police detained the largest number of protesters in one day in recent history. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov the next day said the police were justified because the protests were illegal.

The protests were organized in response to Navalny’s arrest on his return last month from Germany, where he was recovering from a poison attack last year. Highlighting broader dissatisfaction with the Kremlin, more than 40% of protesters at rallies across the country on January 23 were demonstrating for the first time in their lives, an informal survey showed.

In 2013, after a judge found him guilty of embezzlement, Navalny was released after his supporters pushed for his release in demonstrations outside the Kremlin. Since then, Putin has become less tolerant of dissent, analysts say. At the same time, Navalny has become a more powerful political force with an international position, increasing the stakes around street protests.

The decision to stop the protests reflects the concern of Navalny’s inner circle about the effectiveness of bringing people to protest week after week.

In neighboring Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko – a Putin ally – has faced months of protests from protesters who say the election he won last August was neither free nor fair. Belarusian authorities have detained thousands.

Navalny’s team watched the mass protests without effect, said Volkov.

Putin “learned from Lukashenko that you can defeat people in a very, very painful way and still retain power,” he said. “It was an election that took people to the streets in Belarus. For us, our election is still ahead of us. “

In the coming months, Navalny’s team will follow a dual strategy. The movement, which gained prominence through online reports of wealth and corruption in Kremlin circles, will help European authorities to identify stolen assets and money laundered in the European Union.

At home, he will focus on the ballot box and promote Navalny’s strategy of identifying and supporting viable opposition candidates in disputes across the country to lower United Russia’s numbers.

“We must redirect the great anger and dissatisfaction that built up before the elections and use it” against United Russia, said Volkov.

Although Putin is not a member of United Russia, the party defended its policies, including supporting a constitutional amendment that would allow him to remain in power for years to come, as well as supporting laws that restrict Internet freedoms and limit freedom of expression in Russia.

The voting tactic, which Navalny described as “smart voting”, has had mixed results in the past, and last year his efforts in local elections resulted in gains in only a handful of regions. But Volkov said that increasing the opposition’s visibility along with growing discontent will help “tear United Russia apart”.

Some supporters were disappointed by the suspension of the protests, although others said the movement could wait for its time.

“There are pros and cons, people’s emotions will cool now, but if we are really focused on parliamentary elections, it is too early to start pushing for change now,” said Andrey Neyman, a 45-year-old businessman from Kaliningrad who joined protests. “We can wait until May and sun again.”

The explosion of public anger against the Kremlin came at a time when Putin is pondering his own political future. A series of new laws and constitutional amendments last year gave him the chance to remain in power until 2036.

“The Kremlin expected support from the people to make this transition as easy as possible,” said Nikolai Petrov, senior researcher at Chatham House, a think tank. “Navalny ruined Putin’s maneuver.”

Since he returned to Russia last month, the protests have given Navalny and his group more exposure in a country where state television ignores him or considers him irrelevant.

But data from independent researcher Levada last week showed that national attitudes towards Putin have not changed significantly during the nearly three-week period since the protests began.

Sociologists say that while confidence in him as president has declined somewhat, his approval rating is unlikely to drop below 60%, given the widespread political apathy of much of the population.

Whether or not Navalny and his team can eliminate this passive support is the key to the future of their movement.

“The resources at the disposal of the Kremlin and the opposition are totally unequal and, therefore, Navalny’s people must use all the advantages they have to overcome the Kremlin,” said Petrov. “And here its advantage is the ability to quickly overcome the Kremlin, which has become increasingly inert.”

Write to Thomas Grove at [email protected]