People protesting on the streets of Myanmar after a military coup are doing so in very different circumstances compared to previous demonstrations in the country, according to an analyst at the policy research firm Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Police clashed with protesters on Tuesday, during which four people were injured, including a serious injury, Reuters reported. It was the most violent day of protests against the military, which this month overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
“This is what people have feared all week, as these protests escalated and there were tens, perhaps hundreds, of thousands of people on the streets of Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyitaw,” said Gregory Poling, a senior researcher in Southeast Asia in CSIS, to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Protesters ride scooters in a major convoy demonstration against the military coup in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, on February 7, 2021.
STR | AFP | Getty Images
He explained that these protests are very different from the large-scale demonstrations that took place in 2007, known as the “Saffron Revolution”, which was triggered by the military government’s decision to raise fuel prices.
“This is a Myanmar that has spent the past 10 years opening up to the world, democratizing itself,” said Poling. “Most citizens have access to the mobile Internet – or had it before the coup. Most people on the streets probably don’t remember the Saffron Revolution directly and certainly have no memory of 1988.”
Myanmar saw protests, marches and civil unrest across the country in 1988, in what is sometimes referred to as the 1988 Uprising.
“This can be good and bad because it may well convince them that the military is not going to crack down,” said Poling of current protesters. “Or maybe it gives them the confidence to go out and show the generals that they don’t rule the same Myanmar that they did 15 years ago.”
He explained that, while it is a “remarkably dangerous time” for Myanmar, the junta did not immediately give the worst possible response. In previous protests, protesters were killed in repression, while many were arrested.
Protesters in the capital Naypyitaw and in other cities like Mandalay were injured by security forces, Reuters reported, citing local media. The agency said the majority of police fired into the air and used water cannons and tear gas to disperse the protesters. CNBC was unable to verify these reports independently.
The United States condemned the military takeover and threatened sanctions. Beijing’s response was more lenient, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in recent press briefings characterizing China as a “neighbor friend of Myanmar” and asking for solutions that would guarantee the latter’s political and social stability.
But China, Japan, Singapore and Thailand have more influence on Myanmar’s economy than the United States.
“I think the real question is what Japan does, because it is the only big player that is likely to impose some kind of economic suffering on the generals,” he said.
Japan’s deputy defense minister warned this month that if the world closes channels of communication with Myanmar’s military generals in response to the coup, it could push the Southeast Asian country closer to China, local reports said.