While emerging variants of the coronavirus remain a threat, health experts say they hope that increased vaccination rates and continued use of masks may lessen the potential for a new wave.
In fact, there are concerns about whether the immunity offered by vaccines will be less effective against some variants of the coronavirus, including the strain first identified in South Africa, B.1.351, and the locally grown California strain, B.1.427 / B. 1,429.
Researchers at UC San Francisco said that in laboratory tests, the California strain was more resistant to the effects of neutralizing antibodies that are generated by the immune system in response to COVID-19 vaccines or a previous coronavirus infection. Compared to other variants, the protection provided by the antibodies has been reduced by a “moderate … but significant” amount, said UCSF researchers.
When neutralizing antibodies increased against the home grown strain, its effectiveness was halved. In comparison, when these antibodies found the coronavirus strain that is now dominant in South Africa, its effectiveness has been reduced to one sixth of its usual levels.
Vaccine manufacturers started working on booster doses that would be a better match for the new variants. But the researchers say the vaccines are still very good and remain our best bet for us to be protected against the virus. Doctors ask people to take their injections as soon as they are eligible.
Vaccination campaigns are a major contributor to the continuing decline in daily coronavirus cases, and that trend is gratifying, said Dr. Eric McDonald, medical director of the San Diego County epidemiology department, this week.
McDonald said that even though the California strain “is a little more contagious than the others that are circulating in the community, the message to take home is the same: that you need to do all the things we recommend to prevent transmission – so, wearing masks, socializing, staying at home ”.
“We couldn’t say it in stronger terms: we think it’s a mistake to take your foot off the gas too early, especially when we’re accelerating our vaccination efforts now,” said Andy Slavitt, senior consultant at the White House COVID -19 Response Team.
Vaccination has been a factor in the decline in new cases of coronavirus in LA County, along with the fact that many residents have developed some immunity through exposure to the virus. Health officials also attribute greater adherence by residents to guidelines on wearing masks in public and how to avoid social gatherings since the beginning of the fall and winter wave. (Authorities also did not detect an increase in cases related to meetings during the Super Bowl weekend.)
At qualified nursing facilities in LA County – among the first places where vaccines were administered – new daily cases of coronavirus have plummeted in recent weeks, Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer said this week. On February 7, the average number of daily coronavirus cases associated with residents in specialized wards was only five. Four weeks earlier, that number was over 100.
As of February 14, 74% of residents eligible for vaccines at qualified nursing facilities in LA County, and 77% of the staff, had received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Of those who took the first dose, 83% of employees and 79% of residents also received the second dose.
“With many more employees and vaccinated residents, new cases are expected to continue to decline, which means fewer outbreaks and, fortunately, fewer deaths,” said Ferrer.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the United States government’s leading infectious disease specialist, said the increase in variants made it even more essential that people get vaccinated as soon as possible.
Fauci raised the concern that a competition for survival of the fittest between the United Kingdom and California variants could accelerate the spread of the strain that is best able to avoid the effects of the COVID-19 vaccines. The best way to prevent this, Fauci told The Times, is to prevent the spread of both variants by getting vaccinated, wearing masks and limiting exposure to other people.
New daily cases have dropped dramatically in California, but the week-on-week decline has slowed in recent days. As of Thursday, California had an average of 5,800 cases a day, a 21% decline from the previous week. The week-over-week decline was greater at 34%.
Federal officials expressed concern on Friday that the decline in national daily coronavirus cases is beginning to slow as one of the UK’s mutant variants is increasing across the country.
They warned against states loosening COVID-19 restrictions, saying the country remains in a precarious spot that could fall into a fourth wave before more people are vaccinated.
“We are in that very precarious position that we were in before the sudden increase – where anything that could disturb us and give us another increase,” Fauci told reporters at a news conference on Friday. “We don’t want to be people always looking at the dark side of things, but you want to be realistic. So we have to look carefully at what happens in the next week or so with these numbers before we start to make it understandable [decisions] to relax under certain restrictions. “
The average daily number of coronavirus cases in California is at its lowest point since the peak of autumn and winter began to accelerate rapidly in early November. The number of daily cases across the state has fallen 87% since the beginning of January, when there were 45,000 new cases per day.
COVID-19 hospitalizations in California fell 75% from the January 6 peak of 21,936; that number had dropped to 5,590 on Thursday, the lowest since 23 November.
In addition, the number of people with COVID-19 in California’s intensive care units fell by 66%, falling from a peak of 4,868 on January 10 to 1,640 on Thursday. This is the lowest number since November 28.
The rate of positive coronavirus test results in the last seven days reached 2.7% on Friday, a substantial decline since the peak of the winter wave, when the positivity rate reached 14.34% in the seven-day period that ended in January 7. California’s positivity rate is now the lowest since mid-October.
Hundreds of COVID-19 deaths are still being reported daily, although at a rate lower than the peak of about 562 deaths per day in late January. On Thursday, 401 additional COVID-19 deaths were reported by 61 local health agencies in California, according to a Times count; another 395 deaths were reported as of Friday night, according to an incomplete survey.
As of Friday night, local California health agencies reported a total of 51,788 COVID-19 deaths in the state since the pandemic began. On a per capita basis, California has the 30th highest cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate among the 50 states and the District of Columbia.