Most Europeans believe that America’s political system is bankrupt, that China will be the main world power within a decade, and that Joe Biden will be unable to contain his country’s decline on the world stage, according to a report.
While many hailed Biden’s victory in the November American elections, many Europeans feel that, after four years of Donald Trump, the United States is unreliable, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations study.
“Europeans like Biden, but they don’t think America will return as a global leader,” said thinktank director Mark Leonard. “When George W Bush was president, they were divided over how the United States should use its power. With Biden entering the White House, they are divided over whether America has power. “
The survey of 15,000 people in 11 European countries, conducted at the end of last year, found that the shift in European sentiment towards the United States in the wake of Trump’s presidency led to a corresponding reluctance to support Washington in potential international disputes.
At least half of respondents in all 11 countries surveyed thought, for example, that their government should remain neutral in any conflict between the US and China, while no more than 40% in any country said they would support Washington against Russia .
“It is clear that Trump’s tumultuous presidency left an indelible mark on Europe’s attitude towards the United States,” said Ivan Krastev, president of the Center for Liberal Strategies, an NGO in Sofia, and an ECFR board member. “Most Europeans are now skeptical about the United States’ ability to shape the world. This makes many, rightly or wrongly, want to choose a more independent role for the EU in the world ”.
In their report, Leonard and Krastev note that while more than 60% of respondents believed the United States was “bankrupt”, the majority rated the EU and their own countries’ systems much more positively – an opportunity, they argue, to harness the collective power of the bloc for the benefit and protection of its citizens.
The survey found that 51% of respondents disagreed with the statement that, under Biden, the United States would likely resolve its internal divisions and seek to address international issues such as climate change, peace in the Middle East, relations with China or European security.
Amid a widespread feeling of growing Chinese superiority, 79% of respondents in Spain, 72% in Portugal, 72% in Italy and 63% in France said they believed China would overtake the United States as the world’s top superpower in the next decade.
Just over 32% of all respondents – and an astonishing 53% of respondents in Germany – felt that, after voting for Trump, Americans were not to be trusted. Only in Hungary and Poland did significantly more people disagree with this view than they agreed.
Only 10% of respondents saw the United States as a “reliable” security partner that would always protect Europe, while at least 60% in all countries surveyed said they doubted their country could depend on US support in the event of a crisis.
The authors say the geopolitical consequences of this change are significant: two-thirds of respondents said it is now important for Europe to take care of its own defense, including 72% in Portugal, 71% in Sweden, 70% in France and 69% in Poland .
At least half of respondents in all countries surveyed said they preferred their government to be neutral in a conflict between the U.S. and China. Among the 11 states surveyed, only 23% of respondents felt that their country should side with Washington against Russia, with 59% preferring to remain neutral.
Between 38% and 48% of respondents in seven countries felt that the EU should take a tougher international stance on issues such as trade, taxation and regulation, while most countries now considered Germany a more important country to “have a good relationship with” “than the US.
The survey also revealed that in nine of the 11 countries – Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – where the same question was asked in previous years, the average proportion of people saying that EU policy system worked very well or reasonably well increased from 46% to 48%.
He found that people who believed their own national political system was working, which happened more often in northern than southern Europe, were more likely to say that the EU was a success.
The report identified four “tribes” that contributed greatly to pooling the respondents’ positions, depending on whether they felt that the EU, the US or China was rising or falling. The largest tribe, “In Europe we trust”, comprised 35% of respondents, while only 9% belonged to “In America we trust”.