Amid falling mortality rates, signaling that early immunization efforts are already saving lives across California, Governor Gavin Newsom said on Friday that the state is likely to make vaccines available to everyone by the end of April.
California’s vaccine supply is expected to increase dramatically by the end of this month, and the state may abandon its eligibility level structure in five or six weeks, Newsom told a news conference in San Francisco. Until now, vaccines have been strictly limited in California based on age, occupation and other risk factors.
The initial emphasis on vaccinating the elderly and residents of nursing homes, however, seems to be paying off.
Deaths from COVID-19 have plummeted in the Bay Area since the peak of the winter wave, largely due to the fact that people no longer gather for long holidays. But vaccines are also likely to play a role, experts said.
In January, the deadliest month in the pandemic so far, the Bay Area reported an average of 54 deaths per day from COVID-19. That rate has been reduced to more than half, to 22 deaths reported per day so far this month.
Experts say the reduction in deaths may be linked to an end to the sudden increase and, in particular, to the distance from an excess of holidays that encouraged travel and family gatherings, and that led to subsequent coronavirus infections. They also suspect that vaccines that are especially good at preventing serious illness and death are having an effect.
“This is fabulous news!” said Dr. Robert Siegel, a Stanford infectious disease specialist. “This was expected. For example, many community homes with older individuals have systematically vaccinated all residents and caregivers ”.
The general period of time between the date of infection and the date of death is about four to six weeks with the coronavirus. Therefore, people who are dying now were probably infected in February, just when vaccination efforts in nursing homes and for people aged 75 and over were beginning to develop.
Throughout the pandemic, elderly and nursing home residents had much higher mortality rates than any other group. In some counties, deaths in nursing homes accounted for half of the total deaths.
Deaths related to Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s also likely decreased, said Siegel.
So far, San Francisco has recorded 25 deaths, just over one a day, in March. In February and January, San Francisco recorded 98 and 138 deaths, respectively, with an average of about four per day. San Francisco’s death statistics use data compiled by The Chronicle based on the date the deaths are reported, not necessarily the date someone died. Some reports of deaths take several weeks.
Santa Clara County has reported 115 deaths so far in March, or six a day. That’s a drop of more than 50% compared to February, where the county recorded 13 deaths a day. In January, the county recorded 705 deaths, or about 23 a day.
The bay area as a whole saw a sharp drop in COVID deaths, from an increase from 1,677 in January to 1,127 in February and 371 this month. In California, deaths dropped from a maximum of 482 a day in January to 240 a day this month.
Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County health officer, said he feels confident that at least some of the reductions are due to vaccinations. Your county reported 33 deaths to COVID in January and six so far this month.
“We started with some of these smaller, more clearly defined environments, like long-term care environments, and we saw a very obvious and comforting drop in cases and hospitalizations and deaths in that environment,” he said. “This is a microcosm of what I think we are also seeing now for a long period of time in the population as a whole.”
He said the county gave at least one dose of vaccine to 45% of the eligible population, or about 25% of the total population in the county; vaccines are currently approved only for people aged 16 and over. “We are starting to see the impact. I think that the progress we are seeing is increasingly, at least in part, attributable to vaccinations, ”he said.
In Contra Costa County, Dr. Chris Farnitano, the health officer, said that 93% of residents aged 75 and over received at least one dose of the vaccine, and he can see the payoff in fewer outbreaks in nursing homes and other shared spaces.
“At our peak, we had more than 60 active outbreaks in nursing homes in January, and now we are decreasing, I think we have seven,” he said. “We have already seen a tremendous improvement. If we get a fourth wave, I’m very hopeful that it won’t be so deadly because of the vaccines. “
Cases are also decreasing week after week in the Bay Area and the state as a whole. But nationally, cases have recently stabilized after a long period of decline, and public health experts have warned that parts of the country may see a resurgence in cases if they do not remain vigilant.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease specialist, has repeatedly warned that it is too early for states to relax public health guidelines, despite the increase in vaccinations. He cited critical points in the northeast, where the number of coronavirus cases increased again.
“It is really very risky to declare victory before the level of infection in the community is much lower than 53,000 cases a day,” said Fauci during a meeting at the White House on Friday. “It is unfortunate, but not surprising to me, that you are seeing an increase in the number of cases.”
Dr. Catherine Blish, an infectious disease specialist from Stanford, said she was excited that California and the Bay Area continue to see declining cases, especially as the more infectious variants set in.
“I find it absolutely encouraging” that the state has avoided yet another escalation of cases so far, said Blish. “We were all concerned that (the UK variant) had the potential to cause a new outbreak like elsewhere. The fact that he did not do so is a great reflection of the really excellent adherence to public health measures, combined with the increased delivery of vaccines.
Dr. George Rutherford, an infectious disease specialist at UCSF, said the Bay Area “is not yet out of danger”. But with highly effective vaccines targeting some of the most vulnerable populations, the region may never again reach the fatal peaks reported in winter.
“I think we may have left the worst behind,” he said.
The San Francisco Chronicle editors Aidin Vaziri and Michael Williams contributed to this report.
Matthias Gafni and Erin Allday are editors of the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] [email protected] Twitter: @mgafni @erinallday