A new model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that those who are infected but show no signs of COVID-19 account for more than half of all coronavirus cases.
The model, published in the JAMA Network Open on Thursday, shows that about 59% of all coronavirus cases come from asymptomatic people, including 35% who are pre-symptomatic – meaning that they initially have no symptoms, but eventually develop them – and 24% who never developed any signs or symptoms of COVID-19.
“The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of people with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the continued spread of SARS-CoV-2,” wrote the researchers when describing their findings.
The model supports the preventive measures recommended for months by specialists, such as the use of cover on the face and the practice of social detachment.
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“The bottom line is that controlling the COVID-19 pandemic will really require controlling the silent transmission pandemic of people without symptoms,” Jay C. Butler, deputy director of the CDC for infectious diseases and co-author of the study, told Washington Post. “The community mitigation tools we have need to be widely used to be able to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to all infected people, at least until we have these vaccines widely available.
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Effective control of the spread of the virus will require reducing the risk of transmission from people without symptoms and identifying and isolating people with symptoms of COVID-19, wrote the study authors.
The results “suggest that measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene, social detachment and strategic testing of people who are not sick will be instrumental in slowing the spread of COVID-19 until safe and effective vaccines are available and widely used,” authors wrote.