More than two million voters have already voted in Georgia’s next special election by Thursday, but about three percent of those voters did not participate in this year’s presidential election, state data show.
The outcome of the two Senate disputes on January 5 will determine the balance of power in the nation’s capital when President-elect Joe Biden takes office on January 20.
The November 3 presidential election, which denied President Donald Trump his candidacy for re-election, marked the first time that a Democratic presidential candidate has won Georgia since 1992. Republican state senators, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, also did not receive the 50% majority needed to win their races for the general elections.
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Georgia’s electoral authorities began posting state data documenting voter turnout shortly after the start of voting for the runoff on December 14. According to the Georgia Votes data analysis website, early voter turnout in the second round was around 148,000 votes, shy of the total number of votes reported with 12 days left for the general election. Nearly 2.1 million voters voted on Thursday morning, about 64,000 of whom did not vote in the general election, the analysis showed.
Second-round voters who did not participate in the general election consisted mainly of white and black voters, who accounted for more than 53,000 of the votes cast, according to Georgia Votes. White voters also represented the majority of the first voters in the second round, with more than 1.1 million votes cast. Some 650,000 black voters have voted at the start of the second round so far, while Hispanic and Asian electoral blocs have accounted for less than 50,000 initial votes each, the data show.
According to an Associated Press report published on Thursday, the success of the two Democratic candidates running for Senate seats will depend on high voter turnout in the Black, Hispanic and Asian communities. Last month’s election generated record levels of electoral participation due in part to the expanded access to mail and early voting required by the coronavirus pandemic. The high risks of the special election paired with the money poured into the state in support of the four candidates indicate that voter turnout will remain high, as voters decide which two candidates to send to the Senate.
Republicans currently control the Senate with 50 seats. If the two Democratic candidates win next month, the Democrats will also have 50 seats. This hypothetical proportion would give the Democratic Party control, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris able to break any ties, and would probably give the Biden government more legislative power in the years to come.
During the second round, Perdue, who was elected to represent Georgia in the Senate in 2014, will face Democrat Jon Ossoff. Loeffler, whom Georgia Governor Brian Kemp named to replace former Senator Johnny Isakson in late 2019, is campaigning against Democrat Raphael Warnock for another vacancy.
While a SurveyUSA poll conducted last week said that both Democrats were leading their Republican opponents, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted a few days earlier showed that Loeffler was leading by 7 points and Perdue was leading by 3. Emerson College and Insider Advantage polls earlier this week month also said Republican candidates had a narrow lead, while a new Insider Advantage poll published on Wednesday said Warnock and Perdue had little advantage over their competitors.
Newsweek contacted the Republican Party of Georgia and the Democratic Party of Georgia for comment, but received no responses in time for publication.