More than 600,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 by June 1, according to the latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME).
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans – slightly below the previous forecast released last week, which projected 631,000 deaths.
The warmer climate and the wider vaccination could help to reduce transmission between now and August, according to the IHME.
“We expect the vaccination to reach 145 million adults by June 1 and that the expansion will prevent 114,000 deaths,” said the IHME in a statement.
More than 50 million doses of the vaccine have been administered across the country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And if 95% of Americans started wearing masks next week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
The United Kingdom variant: The spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate any potential decline. At least 981 cases of variant B.1.1.7 have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team said it considered the expected variant spread in its projections for this forecast. In the worst case, deaths in the US could reach 645,000 by June 1.
Other factors: Progress could also be reversed if people let their guard down, said IHME.
“Transmission was contained during the winter through the use of a mask, decreased mobility and prevention of high-risk environments, such as meals indoors,” said the IHME. “As the daily case count decreases and vaccination increases, behaviors tend to change towards an increased risk of transmission.”