Sixty-nine counties now have a positivity rate below 10% as an average of seven days in coronavirus diagnostic tests.
The good news: this is the highest number since 2 November.
The bad news: counties should ideally be 5% positive or less, and there are still 62 counties above that benchmark.
Still, the numbers are going in the right direction and it seems that at that time Michigan avoided a sudden post-holiday increase.
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Across the state, Michigan’s seven-day positivity rate is 6.9%. That’s the state’s seven-day average since October. The seven-day average of new cases across the state is now 2,236, 29% down from 3,136 today.
Below is a more detailed analysis of the data at the county level, based on metrics used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services in assessing coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by the MDHHS has six levels – “low” plus Levels AE.
First, take a look at the average seven-day positivity rates by municipality, grouped by the state’s metric.
- Level E (more than 20%): None.
- Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale.
- Level C (10-15%): 13 counties, from highest to lowest – Branch, Wexford, Missaukee, Lenawee, Gogebic, Oceana, Cass, St. Joseph, St. Clair, Newaygo, Tuscola, Crawford and Livingston.
- Level B (7-10%): 30 counties, from largest to smallest – Houghton, Clare, Manistee, Shiawassee, Benzie, Alpena, Van Buren, Saginaw, Monroe, Ottawa, Calhoun, Eaton, Lapeer, Mason, Muskegon, Ingham, Macomb, Oscoda, Presque Isle, Kent, Berrien, Wayne, Grand Traverse, Allegan, Huron, Kalamazoo ,, Iosco, Bay and Jackson.
- Level A (3-7%): 33 counties – Alcona, Arenac, Osceola, Leelanau, Ionia, Gladwin, Oakland, Barry, Sanilac, Genesee, Clinton, Midland, Kalkaska, Ontonagon, Cheboygan, Montcalm, Lake, Washtenaw, Roscommon, Antrim, Ogemaw, Isabella, Emmet, Otsego, Keweenaw, Gratiot, Montmorency, Charlevoix, Mecosta, Ferro, Alger, Menominee, Dickinson and Chippewa.
- Low (less than 3%): Six counties – Delta, Luce, Marquette, Mackinac, Baraga and Schoolcraft.
The chart below allows you to search for any county by name to see the average seven-day positivity rate for January 7-13. The graph has been changed to compare the average for the last seven days with the average for the previous week.
The interactive map below shows the average test rate of seven days per municipality. You can place your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk.
In this metric – which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents – 61 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The limit for Level E is 150 cases per day per million residents.
Levels for the other 22 counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Ontonagon, Marquette, Cheboygan, Osceola, Gratiot, Emmet, Menominee, Delta, Montmorency, Oscoda, Roscommon, Crawford, Ogemaw, Presque Isle, Kalkaska, Chippewa, Dickinson and Schoolcraft.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Baraga.
- Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Mackinac and Luce.
- Low (below 7 cases per million): Missaukee.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that fits the population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to the previous seven days.
Current scores are based on new cases reported from 8 to 14 January. The map below is shaded based on the six levels of the state. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to 1 to 7 January.
Readers can place the cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: you can drag the map with the cursor to see the entire UP)
Overall MDHHS score by region
The MDHHS assigned an overall score for each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, and visits to the emergency department for COVID-19 symptoms.
As of November 4, all eight Michigan MI start regions are at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows these eight regions and their current scores. You can place your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(MI Start Districts in the state: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Below are online databases that allow readers to query county-level data for each of the past 30 days.
Cases per day was reported to the state
The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means that the patient fell ill days before.
You can call a chart for any county and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
(In some cases, a county reported a negative number (decline) in new daily cases, after a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In those cases, we subtract cases from the previous date and put 0 on the reported date.)
The next graph below shows new cases in the last 30 days based on the onset of symptoms. In this graph, the numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the time interval between people getting sick and getting a confirmed result of the coronavirus test, which can take up to a week or more.
You can access a chart for any county and place your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
Interactive maps divide the state into 10-kilometer hexogons to provide a more localized view of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to access the research project website.
The first map examines confirmed and probable cases of coronavirus in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button in the upper right corner of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total confirmed cases of coronavirus and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Last daily report
On Saturday, January 16, the state reported 1,932 new cases of coronavirus and 103 new deaths.
The map below shows the total confirmed cases of coronavirus and deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. You can place your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more state data, visit the MLive coronavirus data page, here. To find a test site near you, check your state’s online test finder here, send an email to [email protected] or call 888-535-6136 between 8 am and 5 pm on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
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