Blake Snell. Yu Darvish. Francisco Lindor. Carlos Carrasco. In the past few weeks, each of these players, responsible for nine appearances in the All-Star Game, has been traded elsewhere as part of multiplayer exchanges. It’s been a relatively uncertain time to be a baseball star making decent money, and that doesn’t seem likely to change yet.
The odds are in favor of more star-studded deals taking place between now and Opening Day. Who can be on the move and who are some remote shots to keep in mind? Below, we’ve identified five “favorites” and five “underdogs” to keep on your wish list. The difference between these groups is straightforward: favorites seem to have a better than average chance of changing teams, while underdogs are more remote.
(Note that players are presented in alphabetical order – except when they have been paired to reduce the narrative burden – and that this exercise is, like psychic readings, largely for entertainment purposes.)
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Favorites
1. Nolan Arenado, third base, Colorado Rockies
This will be familiar to anyone who has followed Nolan Arenado’s trading rumors in the past off-season, but the problem here is simple: he owes $ 35 million this next season, after which he can cancel the remaining $ 164 million in his business . This dynamic, installed at the request of general manager Jeff Bridich, puts the teams in an uncomfortable position: if they switch to Arenado, will they receive less than they expected?
Arenado’s risk of opting out was reduced in 2020 and the impact the pandemic is likely to have in the coming seasons. But unless a team succeeds in convincing Arenado to give up his opt-out rights, there will still be a chance for him to escape – at least to have a say in where he lives and plays.
The Rockies are said to take the move from Arenado to winter seriously, but it is not clear whether they have been able to make any significant progress in their efforts.
2. Kris Bryant, third baseman, Chicago Cubs
3. Willson Contreras, catcher, Chicago Cubs
Again, this is going to look like a copy and paste job from last winter, but the Cubs haven’t changed Kris Bryant and they’re trying to move him now. Bryant is similar to Arenado in the sense that he is coming out of a low season. The difference is that Bryant will cost a little less than half what Arenado will cost in 2021 and that there is no doubt when he will qualify for the free agency: it will be next winter, unless an extension agreement.
In theory, Willson Contreras should be more sought after. His framing metrics have improved over the past season, and he remains an above average hitter, who likes difficult contact and wants to walk. Consider how he has two years of team control left, and he will give a good consolation prize to any team that leaves the JT Realmuto draw to ensure they get an above average backstop.
4. Joey Gallo, right field player, Texas Rangers
The Rangers initially put Joey Gallo on the commercial block last summer, and it is logical that he will be transferred at some point in the next six to 12 months. He has only two years of team control left, a growing refereeing project and a risky long-term outlook that doesn’t make him a sensible extension candidate for the Rangers.
Gallo is a quality athlete who can move the diamond a little bit and there is no doubt that he can hit the ectoplasm of a baseball. He is comically prone to hitting and showing up, however, and it is fair to have concerns about his ability to stay afloat as he approaches 30 and distances himself from the bat’s peak speed.
Whatever it is worth, a contender looking at Gallo’s Statcast data may be excited to learn that the new Texas stadium seemed to suppress its energy production. Baseball Savant’s calculations made Gallo finish with four more home runs if he had produced the same hitting ball profile with the Astros or Phillies, three with the Red Sox and two with the Brewers and Nationals. Does it really matter? Shrug.
5. Trevor Story, shortstop, Colorado Rockies
Arenado receives most of the attention when it comes to Rockies’ commercial targets, but Trevor Story seems to have the greatest commercial value. No shortstop has accumulated more wins than substitution in the past three years, and now he is entering his year of walking.
The Rockies made it a habit to extend their best players before the clock struck midnight on their team’s control – Arenado and Charlie Blackmon included – but they should review their calculations after Lindor’s poor return. The Rocky Mountains can entertain an idyllic scenario in which they trade Arenado and redirect the funds released to History, but this will require some Sorkine stunts. The most likely outcome would seem to involve Colorado moving both and starting over.
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The Dark Horses
1. Willy Adames, shortstop, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a number of quality indoor field prospects near their arrival in St. Pete: Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls. Sooner or later, they will have to create space at the level of the big leagues. That is why it is worthwhile to monitor the situation of Willy Adames. (Ditto for Brandon Lowe, who has other factors working towards a deal.)
As the Snell trade indicates, Rays prioritize maximizing their return. Adames, who just lost Super Two status this winter, will enter the arbitration phase of his career after the next season. This, in addition to the presence of Franco and Walls, indicates that Adames will be traded in the next 12 months. Rays may even want to speed up that schedule as a means of reducing a shortstop market that will soon be oversaturated.
Next year’s free agent class is designed to include Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Story. Chances are that one or two of those players will sign again before they reach that point (Lindor and Seager, perhaps), reducing the class’s star power. Regardless, Rays can offer teams a chance to save some coins and headaches by focusing their energy on acquiring Adames by the deadline or early next winter.
2. Shane Bieber, right-handed, Cleveland
3. Jose Ramirez, third baseman, Cleveland
Although Cleveland only closed the book on the Lindor era, it is not far from having to make equally difficult decisions regarding Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez.
Bieber will enter the arbitration phase of his career next winter, having lost the achievement of Super Two status for about a month. Without Lindor and Carrasco in the books, Fightin ‘Franconas should be able to keep him around in the short term. As for the long term, Cleveland needs to find the sweet spot between maximizing his return and maximizing his competitive aspirations. This is a complicated dance with hitters and inherently more difficult to hit with pitchers and their high risk of injury.
Comparatively speaking, Ramirez’s situation is more direct. He will enter the club option phase of his extension after the next season. At that point, he will receive $ 24 million by 2023. If Cleveland wants to improve Lindor’s return, he may have no choice but to seek a negotiation towards the 2022 season.
4. Matt Chapman, third baseman, Oakland Athletics
Athletics seems to have similar balancing considerations with Matt Chapman, who will qualify for the free agency after the 2023 season. It is more complicated than that, however, for two main reasons: 1) A’s don’t get more funds for division revenue, ostensibly reducing the payroll ceiling; and 2) the synchronized nature of its core.
OA’s will withdraw Khris Davis’s contract after next season, with Mark Canha following him to the free agency. These outflows will create about $ 23 million in savings, but much of that excess will be devoured by increases in the level of arbitrage. Chapman, Matt Olson and Frankie Montas are each in their first year of eligibility, while Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are a few steps ahead and Ramon Laureano is one step back.
It’s just a math problem from there, and that math is going to become difficult sooner or later if the A’s are unable to provide payrolls above the $ 60 to $ 70 million range.
5. Ketel Mars, second baseman / field player, Arizona Diamondbacks
You have to feel a little bit for the Diamondbacks, who are now stuck in the same division as the top two teams in the National League. What should Mike Hazen do? Presumably closer to reconstruction, which will almost certainly include an exchange for David Peralta. Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte are less likely to go, but it wouldn’t hurt Hazen to assess the return of one of baseball’s worst contracts (from a labor perspective).
Ketel Marte signed a $ 24 million five-year pact before the start of the 2018 season. Since then, he has accumulated 12.7 wins over substitution by hitting .294 / .356 / .502 (122 OPS +) and switch between second base and center field. Your contract is as secure as it looks. If he crater (and there is no indication that he will), he will earn $ 16.8 million over the next two years. If he continues to play like a star, his employer will be able to exercise two team options for the almost criminal price of an additional $ 16 million.
Mars’ versatility fits him on any list, and his contract fits him on any ledger. If Hazen exposed him – and he would have a justification for not doing so – he could ask for the ransom of a king and would be in a good position to receive him.