The boring work of college basketball is hitting hard in Columbia – both in the east and in the west.
In the west, Missouri, once one of the top 10 teams and a candidate for a potential 2 or 3 seed, is dangerously close to entering the bubble. The Tigers have lost three consecutive matches, including two to likely non-NCAA teams. Their defense is slipping, their attack is inconsistent and they are starting to look more like the team the analytical nerds warned us about than the team we wanted them to be. It’s not the worst place to be, but it’s still not fun.
Things are considerably worse in the east, however. Gamecocks limped throughout the 2020-2021 season, struggling with COVID breaks, injuries and generally bad basketball stretches. Frank Martin’s team is 5-10 without any prayers to reach March, and they are currently losing two games. Count your blessings fans of Missouri. Consecutive losses from three games may not be fun, but seasons like South Carolina are worse.
Unfortunately, the respective situations in which both programs find themselves put all the pressure of Saturday’s game on the Tigers’ shoulders. Winning or losing, South Carolina is playing mainly for pride and development right now. Variation in results is much more important for Missouri. A victory would put the Tigers back on solid ground, while a defeat would continue Missouri’s fall to the lower seed groups.
What is the difference between a victory and a defeat in South Carolina? What is the difference between a 5/6 seed and a 9/10 seed? It doesn’t fully rest on Saturday’s game, but the trajectory that Missouri is taking early next week could make a difference.
The Starters
| Position | Missouri (13-6) | South Carolina (5-10) |
|---|---|---|
| Position | Missouri (13-6) | South Carolina (5-10) |
| PG | Xavier Pinson (Jr., 6’2 “, 170) | Seventh Woods (Sr., 6’2 “, 183) |
| CG | Dru Smith (Rs. Sr., 6’3 “, 203) | AJ Lawson (Jr., 6’6 “, 177) |
| WING | Mark Smith (Sr., 6’5 “, 220) | Trey Anderson (then 6’6 “, 205) |
| Federal Police | Kobe Brown (so 6’7 “, 240) | Keyshawn Bryant (Jr., 6’6 “, 195) |
| PUBLISH | Jeremiah Tilmon (Sr., 6’10 “, 260) | Wildens Leveque (So., 6’10 “, 242) |
Note: These initial lineups are designed.
For a complete scout in South Carolina, you can read our preview of the teams’ previous game in mid-January.
One thing to keep an eye on is the availability of incumbents Justin Minaya and Jermaine Couisnard, who are dealing with injuries. Frank Martin dismissed Couisnard from Saturday’s game and says Minaya is still questionable (although he practiced in the previous days). Minaya recorded a one-two against Missouri on January 19 while Couisnard struggled, turning the ball five times for five assists.
When Missouri has the ball …
Missouri Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
| Team | Adj. Eff. | Poss. Length | e f G% | FOR% | OR% | FTA / FGA | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | Blk% | Stl% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Adj. Eff. | Poss. Length | e f G% | FOR% | OR% | FTA / FGA | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | Blk% | Stl% |
| Missouri | 111.7 (47) | 16.7 (113) | 51.1 (120) | 19 (166) | 28.9 (151) | 39 (32) | 31 (291) | 53.9 (47) | 69.3 (225) | 12.2 (337) | 9.2 (190) |
| South Carolina | 97.4 (84) | 16.6 (65) | 51.7 (230) | 22.8 (22) | 32.3 (304) | 41.7 (326) | 35 (234) | 51.3 (224) | 75.5 (324) | 10.3 (93) | 11.8 (22) |
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Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
What to watch | How much will Jeremiah Tilmon have to do?
The big senior man will be back in uniform for Missouri on Saturday, and that could not happen soon, as the team is 0-2 without him. Tilmon dominated against South Carolina in the first game, scoring 19 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks and three steals. But after losing two games, will the Tigers try to put you back in the rotation? Or will Cuonzo Martin want to avoid the risk of any kind of injury related to inactivity at the end of the season? It’s hard to say, but Missouri needs Tilmon if it wants to stop the skid.
When South Carolina has the ball …
South Carolina vs. Offense Missouri Defense
| Team | Adj. Eff. | Poss. Length | e f G% | FOR% | OR% | FTA / FGA | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | Blk% | Stl% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Adj. Eff. | Poss. Length | e f G% | FOR% | OR% | FTA / FGA | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | Blk% | Stl% |
| South Carolina | 107 (101) | 15.5 (20) | 48 (260) | 21.2 (277) | 35.1 (16) | 27.9 (269) | 31.9 (262) | 48.1 (231) | 66.3 (292) | 10.8 (299) | 10.3 (289) |
| Missouri | 95.9 (57) | 17 (141) | 47.9 (82) | 17.8 (243) | 28.9 (214) | 36.2 (272) | 32.4 (113) | 47.5 (99) | 70.5 (160) | 9.6 (118) | 8.9 (185) |
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Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
What to watch | Will Missouri prevent the collapse of the second half?
In recent games, a worrying pattern has come into play for Missouri – defensive lapses of minutes in the second half. Cuonzo Martin acknowledged this in his media session on Friday.
Cuonzo Martin said that after analyzing the disappointments of the 2nd half, one factor is that some players are playing an extra minute here and there. He says he needs to put fresh legs on the floor during those moments.
– Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) February 19, 2021
Perhaps Missouri is reaching a conditioning barrier that they just need to overcome, and this adjustment will help the defense round to get back into shape. South Carolina’s statistics on the attack are staggering – they are atrocious on everything except offensive rebounds – but Missouri’s defensive errors have allowed even some of the worst offensive in the SEC to take advantage of the last few games. Missouri needs to remain solid, which can start with the technical team to keep them physically healthy.
Missouri 77, South Carolina 75 | There is not much to say in conclusion. Missouri is slipping, but it is still a much better team than South Carolina – especially when Gamecocks have fewer players for one or two players. A victory at Columbia East wouldn’t mean much, but at least it would put Missouri back on the winning streak and give them something positive to build on. On the other hand, a loss … well, let’s not worry about thinking about it yet.
What’s the saying in college road basketball? “Just win”? It looks good to us.