When the Minnesota Twins make their home debut on April 8, the team will have 10,000 people in the stands at Target Field in Minneapolis, making it the largest, or certainly one of the largest, state-sanctioned meetings since the beginning of the COVID- pandemic. 19.
Other great outdoor venues, like Minnesota United’s Allianz Field, will also be able to receive large crowds from April 1st. Governor Tim Walz cited the state’s low infection rate and the increasing number of vaccinations as the reasons for allowing such events. But another factor is also essential: they are outdoors.
Which begs the question: As the weather gets warmer and more Minnesota residents go outside, what does science say about how safe it is to be outside?
Why outdoors is better
At the beginning of the pandemic, outdoor events were handled with extreme caution by health officials across the country.
Professional and college sports games were quickly canceled, returning later without fans. Health officials in Italy fear that a soccer match generated high in the country in cases of COVID-19 and a March 2020 game in Seattle drew criticism as a big dangerous meeting.
In Minnesota, Walz kept the parks open, but initially closed camps and golf courses. Attorney General Keith Ellison sued operators at a rodeo in Itasca County that allowed more than 250 people (many of whom avoided masks and social distance) to attend an event in July.
REUTERS / Lucas Jackson Governor Tim Walz
Even so, it quickly became clear that being outdoors was safer and, over time, the advantage of outside air and sunlight became even clearer. Mass meetings after the police killed George Floyd in May did not appear to raise COVID-19 rates in Minnesota. And although an infected person attended the rodeo in Effie, the state reported no significant transmission due to the event. Research on the subject found few cases that can be attributed to outdoor transmission and few superspreader events outside.
Dr. Jill Foster, an infectious doctor and professor who works for the University of Minnesota School of Medicine and M Health Fairview, said that small aerosol droplets from a contagious person can float indoors and infect people. But, outdoors, they are surprised, diluted and fragmented by the breath of air in constant motion. “The air is constantly exchanged for new air, there are drafts all over the place,” said Foster.
Foster compared the virus particles to the perfume. When someone sprays it inside the house, people can smell it for a while – even if they leave the room. In the open air, this smell disperses much more quickly.
Potential examples of outdoor propagation
Although rare, transmission outdoors or over-spread events is not impossible, say health officials.
When MinnPost asked the Minnesota Department of Health if there was evidence of the spread of the disease outdoors, agency officials said they found 31 cases of COVID-19 linked to a July 4 concert at Stoney Point Recreation and Campground in Lincoln County , and confirmed that 10 cases were from the same source.
Agency spokesman John Schadl said there were 16 cases linked to a campaign rally by then President Donald Trump in Bemidji last year, and four cases among protesters. The rally participants were in a crowded crowd for the Trump event.
Although these events took place outside, Schadl said the state cannot be absolutely sure that the actual transmission took place outside, rather than indoors, such as the transit to the meeting.
State data show five outbreaks linked to concerts and three to festivals and fairs, activities that may have been external. The MDH says 167 people were potentially exposed to COVID-19 at parties during the pandemic. When contact trackers investigate cases of COVID-19, they ask people about the locations to which they were potentially exposed 14 days before the onset of symptoms.
MinnPost photo by Peter Callaghan Director Kris Ehresmann
“We had some open-air concerts and things like that … we saw a great spread, despite the fact that the activities were carried out outdoors,” said MDH’s director of infectious diseases, Kris Ehresmann. “I think it is important, although we celebrate the return of the warmer weather and take advantage of it for our socialization, I think that we must take special care to remember that, although it is better to be outdoors, it is not without risks.”
In Cook County, health officials tracked an increase in COVID-19 cases to a snowmobile event on the Gunflint trail, held in late February. Cook County has reported 18 new cases of COVID-19 in the past two weeks, and WTIP radio reported Monday that health officials say there is more COVID-19 in the region than at any time during the pandemic.
Although the snowmobile was, of course, outdoors, Grace Grinager, Cook County’s public health supervisor, said the event included stops “at various bars and restaurants”. (Although she was not sure whether each location offered indoor or outdoor seating.)
“While it is impossible to know for sure where the transmission took place, we do know from a public health perspective that the transmission of internal meetings in bars, restaurants or private homes is more likely than transmission in an external environment because of the air flow ”, Grinager said in an email.
When it comes to security, not all outdoor meetings are the same
Foster said that outdoor activities are not the same. Outdoor activities where people move are generally safer. For example, when people go for a walk, “these aerosols don’t stand a chance,” she said.
But things get a little riskier when people are standing still, especially for long periods of time. The more people involved and the closer people are, the greater the potential for dissemination.
At a baseball game, for example, Foster said that rows of people sitting around each other for several hours periodically shouting and clapping are not great – even if it is better than having a party in your living room. (The twins are usually trying to spread people all over the stadium and closing seats between groups.)
Foster also said that people can travel to major events from other parts of the country with higher COVID-19 rates, also increasing the risk.
In addition, in many cases, there are indoor meetings linked to outdoor events. If you are safe in your seat during a sports game, you can still spend more time around other people in a bathroom or on the way to the game.
Still, state data shows hundreds of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic that were probably linked to indoor meetings, such as restaurants, weddings, gyms and sports games, compared to the relatively small number of outdoor related outbreaks identified by the MDH. Schadl said the state does not obtain data to distinguish whether an outbreak included outdoor tables, such as a restaurant courtyard, although meetings in January and February are likely to be indoors.
“Being outdoors is absolutely better than being indoors with regard to the potential for transmission with COVID,” said Ehresmann.