“Do we have a plan if she decides it’s not allowed?” said Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) “The answer is no.”
Democrats are trying to squeeze the minimum wage increase into the so-called budget reconciliation process, allowing them to avoid Republican Party obstruction and to approve their Covid aid project with 50 Democratic votes. Otherwise, they will need 10 Republicans to support him, an unlikely proposal, given the huge gulf between the two parties on the issue.
While Republicans have released a bill raising the wages to $ 10 an hour and strengthening the use of the e-Verify immigration system among employers, Democrats have little interest in reaching a deal now.
“They don’t want a minimum wage,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). “The public wants this to be done and the public wants many things to be done that [Republicans] are not willing to do. “
Brown said the Democrats discussed among themselves how they may need to change the legislation to pass the Senate. But at least two Senate Democrats, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, are opposed to a $ 15 salary increase as part of the coronavirus bill. And Manchin said he would like to see the minimum wage increase close to $ 11.
Democrats ruled out an attempt to reject the parliamentarian’s decision, a move that would amount to eviscerating obstruction by other means. Therefore, if the congressman adopts the language of the minimum wage, some Democrats have discussed trying to attach it to a second stimulus package later this year, arguing that the budgetary impacts of a change in wages may work better under an approved employment law. under reconciliation.
Another option is to try to encourage small businesses to raise their wages using tax incentives, if approved by the parliamentarian.
“I’m not going to say exactly” how the party would handle a setback with the congressman, said Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, the Democratic party’s No. 4 Senate.
But it is difficult to plan without the critical information they need. And while the senators left on Thursday afternoon to spend the weekend at home, the Chamber remained in a state of uncertainty about the fate of the minimum wage. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Argued that the hourly increase should be included in the coronavirus relief package because raising the minimum wage would increase the deficit.
Senate Republicans argue that the provision is irrelevant, will lead to job losses and harm small businesses. They expect the congressman to make a coup – which would prevent an intra-party Democratic struggle in the short term and complicate the prospect of passing a long-term Democratic priority.
Although Democratic House leaders and the White House have been respectful of the Senate’s mysterious rules, they are not exactly willing to change their own priorities in the short term, even if the twisted paths of the Upper House get in the way.
“The call can take us in any direction,” said House Speaker Richard Neal (D-Mass.) Of the parliamentarian’s decision. But he promised that the House would vote for an increase “no matter what” in the MP’s office.
“If for some reason the parliamentarian decides against this,” said Neal, “then you are likely to vote in the House very quickly.”
Raising the federal minimum wage by the current $ 7.25 is an important campaign promise for Democrats, and the $ 15 is a priority for progressives and unions. Protecting the Senate’s reconciliation process may be your only opportunity, without a shift to legislative obstruction.
“We need to pass a minimum wage of $ 15 an hour,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “If we can do that through reconciliation, great. If we can’t, we need to tackle the issue of obstruction and then approve the minimum wage. “
Even if the congressman decides in favor of the salary increase, the coronavirus relief package can still be amended in the Senate floor when it gets there early next month. Republicans are eager to highlight the divide between Democrats on the issue and may propose an amendment to mitigate the increase in the minimum wage. The reconciliation process allows for long offers to amend senators from both parties.
Meanwhile, some Democrats question whether Sinema, Manchin and other undecided Democrats would make the entire Covid package unviable because of the salary issue.
The destination of $ 15 an hour “will depend on whether Senator Manchin and Senator Sinema, who opposed him, somehow feel that the bill’s greater good is more important than the specific minimum wage provision. “said Sen. Bob Menendez (DN.J.)
A less attractive option available to Democrats is to work with the Republican Party. Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is part of a group of Senate Republicans who propose a minimum wage of $ 10, said on Thursday that she thought a bipartisan deal could still be possible in the Senate.
“It is obvious that we need an increase in the minimum wage,” she said. “But I really don’t think it should be part of Covid’s package. … The best way would be to present an account and see if we can resolve it. “
The last time the minimum wage had an autonomous vote in the Senate floor, it failed in 2014, when Democrats tried to raise the hourly rate to $ 10.10. This experience has convinced many Democrats that their best course of action is to work to win over 50 of their members using a reconciliation project, rather than getting involved in what many consider unsuccessful negotiations with Republicans.
“There are a million angles to this,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “Although there are some differences about how much, and how fast, what are the exceptions, it is a unifier in our caucus. Let’s find a way to do this. I am very confident about that. ”