Amid the rising ranks of the unemployed during the pandemic, another crucial problem in the job market has gone unnoticed: workers are calling the record number of illnesses this year.
Whether because they own Covid-19, are concerned about getting it, or are looking after someone who already has it, the number of workers who lost days at work has doubled in the pandemic.
Furthermore, unlike the unemployment rate, which has steadily declined since the peak of April, the abduction rate – as economists call it – has remained stubbornly high. Almost 1.8 million workers were absent in November due to illness, almost equaling the record 2 million set in April, according to Department of Labor data.
Away from illness
A record number of American workers were absent due to illness
Source: US Department of Labor
These lost work days are undermining an economic recovery that has been progressing by leaps and bounds in recent months. Although some indicators have improved significantly, others, such as retail sales and consumer spending and revenue have weakened as the pandemic intensifies and local governments impose new restrictions on business and travel.
Michael Gapen, chief economist at Barclays Plc for the United States, said the vaccine could start reducing absenteeism in the second quarter. Until then, he said, the lost work is leading to disruptions in the supply chain.
Absenteeism “can lead to scarcity, it can lead to higher prices and more restricted production,” said Gapen.
With about 1.5 million new cases per week and deaths at a record pace, employee absenteeism may remain high for some time, especially in early 2021, before vaccines are widely distributed and launched in the U.S. moving more slowly than government officials expected.
Workers
While Department of Labor data tracks people who are sick in the workforce, a separate survey by the Census Bureau captures an even broader view of the challenge. Your latest domestic pulse research – based on responses in late November and early December – it is estimated that more than 11 million people were not working because of the virus. The numbers also include those who abstained from work because they were concerned about catching or spreading the virus and those who care for someone with symptoms.
Read more: Covid Surge Sidelines Health workers when they are most needed
The effects of the disappearance of workers are particularly concentrated in the industry. Absenteeism, combined with short-term stoppages for cleaning facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers, limits the sector’s growth potential, according to Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Industrial Business Research Committee of the Institute for Supply Management.
The group’s industrial activity indicator grew at a slower pace in November, with the employment component falling to a level that indicates contraction.
“It’s not a lack of work,” said Fiore in a recent call with reporters, noting absenteeism, especially for low to medium-skilled roles. “It is a lack of people”.
In addition to temporarily absent workers, the manufacturing sector has 525,000 job openings, most of which have been on labor records since 2000.
Car factories are feeling the effects. General Motors Co. put white-collar employees on the factory floor in August to deal with high absenteeism amid strong demand. Frank Witter, chief financial officer of Volkswagen AG, He said that high levels of absent employees have left the automaker “sometimes struggling to get all the cars to be manufactured for customer orders”.
American companies reported that the increase in cases precipitated the closure of factories and fears of infection, adding to labor challenges, including absenteeism and attrition, according to the latest Beige Book summary of the Federal Reserve’s economic conditions. Manufacturers in the Chicago area used overtime to make up for staff shortages on December 2 report said.
Medical certificate
For office workers, 90% of professionals said before the pandemic that they would sometimes go to work sick, according to a 2019 report study by the recruitment company Accountemps. Covid changed the conversation, and more employees are staying at home to protect themselves and others.
The Family Coronavirus Response Act earlier this year made the decision to stay home easier for some Americans by allowing two weeks of paid sick leave for certain employees. The law also allows leave for those who cannot work because they must take care of a child.
The latest stimulus bill, signed by President Donald Trump on December 27, includes an extension of the law to March 31, but makes paid leave voluntary for employers rather than mandatory as it was in the first iteration. This may continue the tendency for workers to stay at home, depending on how many employers choose to grant leave.
The law, however, excludes essential workers, meaning that those employed in facilities such as slaughterhouses cannot take advantage of the policy. This, in turn, can lead to outbreaks in the workplace and further disrupt production.
Read more: the pandemic is starting to hit US meat factories again
With fewer employees working, slaughter rates at U.S. meat factories fell in the third quarter. Tyson Foods Inc. CEO Dean Banks said in a recent earnings call that absenteeism “has increased the cost and complexity of our operations” and that the company expects this to continue in 2021.
– With the help of Henry Ren and Julia Fanzeres