Michigan now has the fastest growing COVID-19 case rate in the country, to alarm from health officials across the state.
The state ranks second, behind New Jersey, on average of new cases per capita. The Thumb region, like Macomb and Jackson counties, has one of the highest transmission rates in the country.
The average number of new cases on seven dates in the state has doubled since March 15, and is at its highest in 2021. Friday’s positive rate was 10.6% in the results of coronavirus diagnostic tests.
Even more worrying is the increase in hospitalizations. On Friday, 1,940 people were hospitalized for COVID-19, a number that doubled in less than three weeks.
“What we are seeing now is very worrying,” said Jim Lee, vice president for policy and data analysis at the Michigan Health & Hospital Association.
“Michigan is the hot potato right now in the United States,” said Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease specialist at Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids. “Now, that is a good question. I asked myself, because there are many other states that are much more open than we are. “
So, what is happening?
No one knows for sure, but it is probably a combination of factors, experts say.
Below is a look at the various theories and probable factors.
Reopening of schools and resumption of high school sports.
Younger people lead the increase in cases, a point emphasized by experts.
“Outbreaks among high school children are dramatic across the state,” said Sullivan.
In the past three weeks, people under the age of 20 accounted for 22% of new cases, compared with 13% during the first year of the pandemic. Average daily case rates since March 5 have increased 131% for children under 10 years old and 147% for ages 10-19 compared to the previous year’s average.
“It’s something we hoped could happen” when schools return to face-to-face classes, said Ryan Malosh, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan. “Now that the children are back in touch with each other, they are susceptible. The virus is still here; did not leave. So, we are seeing an increase in this age group, and I don’t think this is surprising.
“It can also explain part of the speed (of the spread) because there are so many susceptible people at that age” who have not been vaccinated and have not yet been exposed to the virus, said Malosh. In addition, children and adolescents tend to come into contact with more people than adults through school and social activities.
And the classrooms themselves may not necessarily be the problem, he added. “When I stop by my daughter’s school, it looks good. They are all masked and only one class at a time is going to the playground. But the second the school day is over, everyone goes to the park and plays without masks, so there’s that. “
Likewise with sports, it may not be the competition itself where children are exposed, but the events surrounding sports activity. “There are definitely outbreaks of youth sports, where people get together to eat later,” said Emily Toth Martin, another UM epidemiologist.
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Although most young people have mild cases of coronavirus, this is not always the case, health experts warn. Some children get very sick and need hospitalizations. Currently, 18 patients with COVID-19 are hospitalized in pediatric wards across the state.
Greater mobility
During January and February, Michigan was one of the lowest states in the country in terms of mobility, based on data from cell phones. People stayed at home, which reduced the chances of exposure to the virus or exposure to other people.
That changed in March, Martin said, and in some areas, mobility has returned to levels close to the pandemic.
“If you look at the data from cell phones and other sources of mobility data that we have, you will see that people are moving close to the levels we saw before the pandemic for certain types of travel,” she said. “So there is definitely a lot more movement going on. And some of these outbreaks that we heard about are very big ”, involving large social gatherings.
Covered restaurant reopening
Among the 50 states, Michigan had one of the lowest transmission rates in January and almost the entire month of February, and experts say a major reason for this was more restrictions.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer eased restrictions on gyms and cinemas in January and allowed restaurants to eat in person again on February 1. Coronavirus case numbers and positivity rates started to rise in the third week of February.
The lifting of restaurant restrictions usually results in an increase in case rates, concluded a recent study by the federal Centers for Disease Control. That’s because the coronavirus spreads more easily indoors, where people don’t wear masks.
“When we started allowing people to go back to restaurants, an increase in cases was expected,” said Malosh. “Just by putting people in contact with each other more, we know that this is going to be a little difficult. This, however, is more than that. It’s a very big leap ”, which indicates that other factors are at play.
Martin said that eating with or around other people tends to be a common denominator for outbreaks.
“Honestly, a lot comes down to food, because food is an essential component of our meetings” and people need to remove their masks to do this, she said.
“Masks make a big difference,” she said. In examining the outbreak data, “I continue to be impressed by the difference between the situations in which people are masked and when people are taking off their masks.”
COVID-19 variants
Of course, one of the factors is the emergence of new variants of COVID-19, which are more contagious than the dominant strain of coronavirus.
What is not clear is exactly how large the variants of a factor are now.
Along with Florida, Michigan has one of the highest numbers of identified cases of strain B.1.1.7 that first appeared in the United Kingdom. This variant has been identified in more than 1,000 cases in 41 Michigan counties.
However, Malosh and Martin – the UM epidemiologists – warn that Michigan is much more aggressive than most states about testing variants, so it is difficult to know whether the higher case count here is simply due to this.
“We know you’re here, and the last time I checked, in mid-March, there seemed to be about 10% to 20% of cases,” said Martin. “So it is not yet the dominant variety, but it is increasing.
“I think what we are seeing now is the variant happening, in addition to a lot of behavioral changes happening at the same time,” she said.
Lee, the MHA data analyst, believes that the spread of variant strains in Michigan explains both the increase in case speed and a worrying increase in hospitalizations among patients with COVID-19 in their 30s and 40s.
“The reason why I believe that the variant (B.1.1.7.) Is impacting our hospitalization rates is the fact that we had younger individuals entering our hospitals,” said Lee. “And we know that the variant causes illness more serious and is more transmissible, especially in the younger population. And we also see a faster increase in our hospitalization rates than I expected. “
Grand Rapids’ infectious doctor Sullivan agreed.
“I think this is a kind of perfect storm for this variant, and it is taking advantage of the situation,” he said. “I have to believe, with the speed with which the numbers are increasing, that many of these cases are probably B.1.1.7. variant cases. “
COVID fatigue
Undoubtedly, a big factor is that after a year of restrictions related to COVID and the hope offered by coronavirus vaccines, many are ignoring coronavirus mitigation strategies, such as wearing a mask, avoiding crowds and social distance, especially in closed environments. .
“A lot of people are tired of COVID,” said Sullivan. “They’re saying, ‘I’m done with this.’ They are tired of it. In addition, there is a feeling that things are going very well now that we have vaccines and we no longer have to worry about COVID. “
Martin offers a similar perspective.
“There is an innate feeling among many people of, ‘Vaccines are here. They are about to be widely available. Let’s go ahead and start behaving as if we were already vaccinated ‘, ”she said. “There is such a strong desire to start meeting that people are going to do it, whether they are vaccinated or not.”
The good news
The good news is that vaccination is proving to be a huge success for those who have been immunized so far.
MHA officials say they have not heard reports of hospitalizations among people who are fully or partially vaccinated.
In fact, COVID-19 cases among residents of Michigan qualified nursing facilities have dropped 96% since the federal long-term care facility’s vaccination program began in late December, according to the Health Care Association of Michigan .
This is especially significant because long-term care residents were responsible for a third of COVID-19 deaths in Michigan.
Cases of COVID-19 in Michigan nursing homes have dropped 96%, deaths have fallen 99% since the end of December
Coronavirus cases among the elderly in the general population are also plummeting, the data show. Even with case numbers skyrocketing among other age groups, the average number of new daily cases per capita has dropped 54% this month for people aged 80 and over and 26% for those aged 70 compared to the average rate for the former. year of the pandemic.
And Lee said the increases in hospitalizations for COVID among the elderly are a fraction of what they were during the last wave.
On the other hand, 70% of the adults in Michigand and 100% of the children have not yet been vaccinated, leaving many, many people vulnerable to this increase.
The increase in hospitalizations is particularly worrying, Lee and others said. It seems that the great wave of infections among children has now spread to a wave of COVID cases among their parents and others around them.
So even when children and adolescents are rarely hospitalized for the coronavirus, Lee said the number of recent hospitalizations for people under 60 is a major concern.
Michigan COVID-19 hospitalizations among young adults reaching the same levels as the previous peak
Given the encouraging trends among the elderly, it appears that vaccines offer the best way out of the current increase, experts agree. But now a race between the vaccine and the variant.
Martin said the variant is yet another reason why people should redouble their coronavirus mitigation strategies until they are vaccinated.
“It’s like you’re running a race and the other runner starts running 50% faster,” she said. “You want to catch it while you still have a chance.”
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