Throughout the season, the narrative around male college basketball was Gonzaga and Baylor – and everyone else. The Zags and Bears were clearly the two best teams in the country, the prohibitive favorites of the national champions, and no one else was close. Instead of debates about No. 1, the discussion has been about No. 3 – like, who’s the best in the rest? It’s a place that has fluctuated from team to team for most of the past few months.
While Gonzaga and Baylor may still be a step above the field because neither team has lost a game, Michigan is arguing that it is much closer to the Gonzaga / Baylor level than the “everyone else” level.
It is an argument that is made stronger by the fact that the teams classified in 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9 have suffered defeats in the last five days. Of course, fourth place is the state of Ohio, which saw Michigan enter Columbus on Sunday, score 92 points and leave with a declaration victory.
The Wolverines had one more of those on Thursday.
They overcame a slow first half against Iowa to get No. 9 Hawkeyes out of the gym in the second half, retiring for a dominant 79-57 victory. Michigan midfielder Hunter Dickinson more than held up against Iowa’s Luka Garza, forcing the Wooden Award favorite to a 6 on 19 night on the pitch, while scoring 14 points at the other end. Franz Wagner, the Wolverines’ best prospect in the NBA draft, had 21 points and was consistent throughout the game, while Isaiah Livers had four points out of 3 and had 16 points.
Michigan’s defense in the Big Ten game has been his calling card, and that was no different on Thursday. Earlier this week, according to the ESPN Stats & Information poll, the lowest number of points Iowa scored in half of the entire season was 31. The Hawkeyes did not reach that number in either game against Michigan. And it wasn’t just Garza fighting. Iowa kicked 6 of 19 from a 3-point gap, hitting just two shots behind the hoop in the second half.
At the start of the season, Michigan began to gain some recognition as one of the best teams in the country after a 23-point win over Wisconsin, which was not so close. Four days later, the Wolverines lost in Minnesota by 18. They followed up with two Big Ten wins, but we haven’t seen them play for 23 days because of a state-determined break. So while there was evidence that Michigan was the third best team in the country, it was hard to really believe the Wolverines because we didn’t know what they would look like after the break.
They answered that question impressively. They won in Wisconsin in their first game of the round, defeated Rutgers and then beat Ohio State on Sunday. Then came the test of Thursday against a team from Iowa that has the best attack in the country and an improved defense. And the game was not in doubt over the final 16 minutes of play.
Gonzaga and Baylor will still go to the NCAA tournament as the two favorites, unless one – or both – lose a game, but the gap between Michigan and everyone else is growing. It is a statement supported by metrics. Wolverines are No. 3 at KenPom, No. 3 in the Sagarin ranking and No. 3 in the strength of ESPN’s metric record. They are 7-1 against opponents in quadrant 1 and 11-1 against opponents in quadrant 1 and 2. KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin ranked Gonzaga and Baylor 1st and 2nd in any order since Baylor’s first game in the season, but Michigan’s win on Thursday reduced Baylor’s lead to just 0.48. (Gonzaga has been constantly withdrawing from the group at the West Coast Conference play.)
Michigan is the elite at both ends of the floor. The Wolverines are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, kicking better than 39% behind the hoop, but also capable of throwing the ball to Dickinson on the court and picking up a basket. They have five players who have scored at least 20 points out of 3 this season with a clip of 36.7% or better. Wagner and Livers are versatile strikers in the wing. Mike Smith, the Columbia transfer graduate who went from an average of 22.8 points on 19.3 shots last season to an average of 8.6 points on 6.4 shots this season, has become a veteran ace he distributes with effectiveness, takes care of the ball and opens 3s. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown adds pop off the bench.
Defensively, coach Juwan Howard has several high-profile individual defenders. Wagner improved dramatically at that end of the room; Dickinson just smothered Garza and showed that he can be dominant in glass; and Eli Brooks is one of the Big Ten’s best defenders. Wolverines are excellent at contesting shots within the arc and keeping opponents out of the painting.
Howard is the favorite for the national coach of the year. He lost two senior holders from last season in Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske, replaced them with Smith and Dickinson, and got this team to agree on both ends.
And after Thursday, he also has a team that split up in the upper crust of the college basketball scene.