The Mets had a Trevor Bauer budget. Now, back to the original plan.
Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson stated at the beginning of the off-season the desire to keep the payroll below the $ 210 million luxury tax limit. But at Bauer, they saw an opportunity – top talent at a time when few teams were voluntarily engaging at the top of the market. They theorized that if Bauer were their 2020 NL Cy Young version, it would change the path of the contending Mets to something more immediately.
So Mets made the biggest offer – three years at $ 105 million. The average annual value of $ 35 million would have projected them beyond the tax limit before addressing any other off-season or budget issues for increased trade terms. Bauer received $ 3 million less from the Dodgers to win: his hometown, a more stable franchise, a more secure winner and a high-end launch store.
Without Bauer, the Mets return to the previous concept. So if you’re thinking about how the Mets could spend $ 105 million in total, $ 40 million this year (what would have been Bauer’s 2021 Mets salary) or exceed the limit, that’s unlikely. They have 22 players currently under major league contracts for $ 162 million. Complete the list, add the formula for benefits and set aside money for summons and negotiations during the season, and the Mets will have perhaps $ 25 million before they cross the threshold. A familiar side: the Mets, with Cohen’s money, should not treat the cap as a de facto wage cap. If they need to improve the team within reason, they should do so.
Some ideas on where the team should go next:
1. Talk to Jacob deGrom. It is known around Mets that deGrom may not be very satisfied with his contract and that Mets was offering more to someone in Bauer who had never done anything for them. DeGrom was signed in bizarre circumstances. He was represented for a long time by Brodie Van Wagenen, who became GM of the Mets after the 2018 season. As a rule, Van Wagenen had to withdraw from the negotiations, but if you are deGrom, you know that Van Wagenen was aware of what it would be necessary to close a deal. In spring 2019 training, deGrom signed for five years at $ 137.5 million. But nearly 40 percent has been delayed for 15 years, drastically reducing the current figure.
The Mets owe no more to Grom. If he had been hurt, the Mets would have had to pay every dollar. And this was not the Cohen / Alderson government that hired him. But it was this government that got involved with Bauer.
DeGrom may cancel after the next season. The Mets can handle it then. But they want to risk, say, bidding against the Dodgers, the Yankees and the giants who are about to have tons of money available and more. They have exclusivity now to keep the second best pitcher in their history in the fold and happy.
If deGrom does not choose to leave, his contract will have four years, leaving US $ 130 million left – reduced, however, by deferrals. How about Mets offering to rip that off and give a $ 144 million pact without a four-year deferral with a $ 36 million fifth-year option or a $ 8 million purchase? The $ 152 million total guarantee is an average value of $ 38 million, pushing deGrom beyond Gerrit Cole’s $ 36 million to the highest average ever. Can DeGrom try to chase more? He could, but first it comes with a good release at 33 and 34 years old. The offer is to lose the postponements and become the highest paid player now.
2. Try a cost-neutral offer for Brewers by Lorenzo Cain. The Mets are talking to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. about the central field. He is a winning player who brings an elite defense. But the question in 2021 remains: if there is no NL DH, how would the Mets find enough strikes for Bradley, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Dom Smith between the center, the left and the first?
The same would happen if you replaced Bradley with Cain. Here are the buts: The Mets must offer Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach and a good, but not elite (prospect like Franklyn Kilome). Familia, Betances and Brach account for $ 17,375 million for the 2021 tax payroll, Cain $ 17 million. So doing it this way allows the Mets to have more budget for 2021 to add, say, even a Trevor Rosenthal to a bullpen with Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Seth Lugo and Trevor May.
Would small brewers do this to escape Cain’s $ 18 million salary in 2022 when he will be 36? It doesn’t hurt to ask. Cain’s right stick (Bradley is left-handed), age and that he chose not to participate in most of last season would make it easier, say, to start him in 110-120 games and rotate the other sticks if there is no DH, but play your brilliant defense late when it doesn’t start.
3. Place an initial spin bet. Mets improved this off-season – especially in the middle, especially with Francisco Lindor. But Braves are probably still better in an NL East with many players and Dodgers are certainly better in general in NL. Mets should think about what, if it works, would close the gap.
I have no illusions about James Paxton. He is not healthy. He is at all risk. But unlike any other starter on the market, especially one who can make a deal for a year, the southpaw has the best. Can you dream of a scenario where Paxton can take you to June for the return of Noah Syndergaard, and are both healthy for September / October to join deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman? It is a rotation that can win any short series.
4. A negative vote for Justin Turner. With Bauer, the Dodgers project a $ 237 million payroll, a major league record. Maybe they’ve turned off the tap now. This would be the most obvious landing place for Turner outside the game. This would create a chance for Alderson to reverse, perhaps, his worst change in his first term – Turner not competing after the 2013 season. Turner continued with seven seasons in the Hall of Fame with the Dodgers.
But he will play at age 36 next year and will almost certainly make a multi-year deal for the land (remember that Robinson Cano’s salary returns to 2022-23 to further burden the payroll). The Mets must not risk letting him go at the wrong time and bringing him back at the wrong time. JD Davis is the third baseman on the role. I’m curious, though, if Luis Guillorme has any Gio Urshela in it. There is no third base power possible with him. But he has great hands on both sides of the ball that I wish they had a better chance, especially since third base is a position that should have commercial candidates available this season if the Mets need to fix this right away.