The Mets are betting on the positive game.
They did this to some extent with Trevor May, in a bigger one with James McCann and increased some points even more by reaching an agreement with Taijuan Walker on a multi-year contract.
The Mets ensured that three major roles – and $ 78 million – in the hope that a shortened 2020 would be a true indicator of who they are now and at least in the near future. It also means that they didn’t guarantee anything for more proven / talented options like Liam Hendriks, JT Realmuto and Trevor Bauer.
And wasn’t one of Steve Cohen’s advantages that the Mets could stop accepting the second, third and fourth best alternatives?
Imagine on November 10 – the day of Cohen’s introductory press conference that so stirred up the optimism of Mets fans – you would have been informed that Mets would not sign any (ZERO) of the six best free agents in this off-season. That would have seemed impossible, right?
Now, the Mets have negotiated with Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and, who knows, before the end of spring training, they may announce long-term extensions for Lindor, possibly even Michael Conforto.
But this is the off-season period when most teams are usually out of the big free time. The Yankees had their eyes only on retaining DJ LeMahieu, the Dodgers only on a positive move for Bauer and retaining Justin Turner. When will it be next winter, when will the Mets have this little competition at the top of the market?
Still, these Mets invested in volume as much as anything. Walker’s will be the eighth free agent deal in the Mets major league. Only the Cubs and Giants, with nine, have more. The total cost is $ 94.15 million, less than the Yankees ($ 104.15 million), which we consider to be inactive off-season. Still, it is the fifth most spent on free agency so far.
What the Mets expect is that they surround a strong core led by Comfort, Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Dom Smith with a superstar in Lindor via trade, in addition to the kind of general depth they were burned for not have in recent years. Within that depth, they saw the potential for more than complementary players.
Since May returned from Tommy John’s surgery in 2018, he has been doing very well, but that includes two seasons (2018 and 20) of 24 matches each and a total of 113 entries in three years. He posted an ERA of 3.10 at that time with 12.2 eliminations for nine entries. With Seth Lugo (elbow) out for at least a month of the regular season, May must be Mr. April.
McCann had two strong seasons with the White Sox, especially last year, when his OPS shot up to 0.896 and all data on the pitch’s frame began to rank him better. But the questions remain whether he will hit the pitch well with his right hand, plus he has decreased in each of the past two years as his workload has increased – and he is the No. 1 catcher with the Mets, which was not last year with Chicago.
Walker threw 53 1/3 innings last season, which isn’t much, but it’s more than he had produced through an injury haze since 2017. His ERA working 11 starts for Seattle and Toronto in 2020 was 2.70 . But his independent ERA on the pitch was 4.56 because the opposition only had a batting average of 0.243 on the balls in play. Such a low average usually indicates at least one element of luck, especially for a pitcher who hits one more takedown and hits less like Walker. And Mets, even with the Lindor update, do not expect to be a strong defensive team in 2021.
Still, the Mets saw enough to guarantee Walker two years at $ 20 million (or three to $ 23 million if Walker triggers a third-year option; the contract was closed pending a physical examination). Mets sees a beginner at 28, ready, perhaps, to deliver excellent years of health and at least strength in the middle of the rotation.
In their idealized scenario, the Mets wanted to have a rotation that would put a legitimate candidate for the title in Triple-A, which they can now do with Joey Lucchesi or, more likely, David Peterson behind deGrom, Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and Walker; with Noah Syndergaard due in June, after Tommy John’s surgery.
A Walker that can give the Mets, say, 140 entries and an ERA of 4.00 serves the purposes of a team that believes its strengths are to lead a strong three-rotation front (maybe four when Syndergaard returns), an attack superior and a capable bullpen that has a chance to be much better than that. And if 2020 was real for Walker and not an aberration, then the Mets received a strong initiator – not to mention a man of quality prep in May and a front-line catcher in McCann.
This is the positive move. The Mets are betting on the overall depth and that 2020 was just the beginning for the three most expensive external free agents who bought this off-season.