ESPN’s Chris Mortensen has driven the Miami Dolphins fanbase crazy this week with speculation that Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, unhappy with the amount of information the team gave him in the search for his new general manager and coach, would “consider” a trade with dolphins. Forget the fifth overall choice of 2020, Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins could get a first-rate quarterback and solve all their problems at once. Miami would instantly become a contender for the Super Bowl, and everything would be fine in the football world again.
Except, isn’t it?
Look, this does not mean that Watson is not a great defender entering the peak of his career. This is not to say that I would not love to see Watson in the aqua. This does not mean that the Dolphins should immediately dismiss the idea of Watson joining the club.
That means you can take a minute and take a breath before you bet everything on Watson. See, adding Watson is not just signing a player. Adding Watson would come through an exchange. And, in exchange, something has to go the other way. And Texans have no reason to cheapen Miami’s acquisition of Watson.
There is a threat that Watson could be left out, skipping camp or even games, because he is very unhappy with the Texans for not listening to him anymore in his search for GM. In January. Nine months before games matter. As Dan Graziano of ESPN wrote this morning: “I’m calling it an overreaction, because there is a possibility that Texans will find a way to calm things down with him, and that is a more likely outcome than an exchange.” The Texans are going to calm things down with Watson well before that becomes a problem this season.
Even if they can’t, however, what does Texans do to negotiate Watson? If he stays out, they’ll fine him. If he misses the games, they recover the wage ceiling space. If he loses the entire year, he still remains under contract with the Texans.
Which brings us compensation. There is no way for Texans to part ways with Watson for just Tagovailoa in return. No matter how much potential Tagovailoa has, Watson has already shown that he is an elite quarterback. They will ask for the moon. Why, why wouldn’t you?
Houston is expected to come in strong, looking for Tagovailoa, both Miami choices in the first round this year, including Houston’s original choice for third overall, and something else. What other attractive assets does Miami have? Xavien Howard. Why wouldn’t you ask Howard if you were Texans? A young player who is clearly entering his prime, leading the NFL in interceptions and has been named a First Team All-Pro? It seems like a great demand.
Even though Howard is not included, Miami giving up Tagovailoa and his two choices in the first round leads us to a simple question. Was Tagovailoa the biggest problem for the Dolphins attack this year? Or was it the lack of weapons around Tagovailoa? If you think you were the defender, then yes, Watson is clearly the need. If you think it was other pieces, then those two choices from the first round suddenly become a huge necessity.
Watson in water would be incredible. But, that would be a difficult pill to swallow. This is not to say that Watson is not an elite quarterback, but you may already have one and just need to add the pieces around it.
What is the use of adding Watson, if you are not going to surround him with pieces to succeed?
Are they trying to be the Miami Texans?