The New Orleans Pelicans agreed to swap JJ Redick for the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, avoiding a possible buying situation for the veteran point guard. Sources told ESPN’s Andrew Lopez that the Pelicans sent Redick and Nicolo Melli to Dallas for strikers James Johnson and Wes Iwundu, as well as a 2021 choice in the second round.
How much help can Redick provide to Dallas, and how has New Orleans fared in this business?
Kevin Pelton distributes business notes to both teams.
The deal
Mavericks get: JJ Redick, Nicolo Melli
Pelicans receive: James Johnson, Wes Iwundu, choice of 2021 runoff
Get more commercial notes from Pelton here
In the last off-season, the Philadelphia 76ers acquired Seth Curry from the Mavericks for Josh Richardson in part because they wanted to fill the shot void left by losing JJ Redick at the free agency in 2019. Now Dallas switched to Redick in part to fill the remaining shot void Curry. Unfortunately, the cycle is unlikely to continue with the pelicans switching to Curry next year.
The good news is that the Mavericks still have Richardson, allowing them to mix and match the two wings together with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith depending on the clashes. Kicking was a necessity for Dallas, who dropped to the league average in terms of a 3-point percentage after finishing 10th in 2019-20.
Despite his much-vaunted start to the season, Redick should help. After making six 3s at the opening of the Pelicans season, Redick was 3 of 26 (11.5%) in the next seven games, and his 3-point percentage was still below 30% when he was temporarily removed from rotation at the end of January . Since then, however, Redick has made 46% of his 3s in February and March. There is no special reason to expect him to be anything other than one of the league’s best snipers, if health permits.
About that: Redick hasn’t played since March 3, losing New Orleans’ last game before the All-Star break and then undergoing a non-surgical procedure to relieve inflammation in his right heel. Presumably, information about Redick’s status was an important part of trade negotiations.
In the end, the Mavericks didn’t give up much here. Iwundu and Johnson, who competed in the regular minutes at the start of the season, fell from the final rotation as Dallas jumped from an opening hole to seventh in the Western standings. The goal of the Mavericks will be to pass another team to avoid having to participate in the play-in tournament. They are currently 1.5 games behind the Portland Trail Blazers in sixth, two behind the Denver Nuggets in fifth and four behind the Los Angeles Lakers.
Except for a loss in the play-in tournament, Dallas’ choice in the second round is expected to fall in the late 1940s or early 1950s. Projections based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index put him on 51st place on average, meaning that Mavericks are unlikely to lose their choice.
In retrospect, it seems that the last off-season was probably the right time to move Redick. The combination of his fall in the shooting and the injury probably helped to erode a commercial market that may have been more robust when Redick was coming out of a strong campaign.
At this point, it was worth the Pelicans taking everything they could in return. They didn’t necessarily lose Redick, going 4-4 in his absence with young guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis Jr. taking the extra minutes.
To avoid going to the luxury tax by withdrawing Johnson’s contract, New Orleans also sent Melli with Redick to Dallas. After playing frequently as a 29-year-old rookie alongside Zion Williamson, Melli had seen just 241 minutes of action this season. Pelicans are still close enough to the tax line that they will likely have to manage their 14th place on the list, leaving it open between 10-day contracts to avoid the tax.