Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions agreed to part ways during this off-season, which could (should?) Matter a lot to 49ers while looking for potential updates on Jimmy Garoppolo. A union between Stafford and San Francisco could end up being beneficial for both parties.
Consider where Stafford’s career is. He is 32 years old, a 12 year old veteran, has an under-0.500 record as a starter and is 0-3 in the postseason. All of this comes despite the fact that he is already number 16 in passing yards. Stafford is a better player than his record and the lack of success in the postseason indicates. As he tries to turn the page on his career while he’s still years old, a team like 49ers could help him get rid of some of the monkeys that have taken up residence on his back.
A healthy version of the San Francisco 49ers would be the best lineup Stafford has ever played in, and coach Kyle Shanahan would be the best offensive coach he has ever had.
The impact Shanahan had on some other defenders points to great potential for Stafford in the 49ers’ attack.
It is not a fair comparison because the offensive weapons are different, but it is worth noting what Matt Ryan’s numbers looked like before Shanahan’s arrival in Atlanta and how they compare to Stafford’s over the course of 12 seasons. As Stafford played 55 games more than Ryan before Shanahan, we will be limited mainly to the averages.
During his first seven seasons, Ryan completed 64% of his shots for 256.1 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, a touchdown rate of 4.5% and an interception rate of 2.4%. He maintained an approval rating of 91.1 over that period.
Stafford’s first 12 years are remarkably similar. He completes 62.6 percent of his passes for 273.4 yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt. Its touchdown rate is 4.5% and its interception rate is 2.3%. Stafford’s passer rating is 89.9 after 12 years.
Both players also struggled in post-season situations. Stafford is 0-3 in his first three attempts. Ryan was only 1-4 before Shanahan arrived and helped the Falcons reach the Super Bowl.
Ryan’s first season under Shanahan in 2015 was relatively similar to his first seven years, but his second season in that attack was his MVP year, where he exploded to 4,994 yards, a rate of 7.1 TD, 1.3 rate of INT and 9.3 yards per attempt. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that such a talented player is Stafford to see a similar increase in production, especially since he already has a 5,000 yard season on his resume and a couple of seasons over 30 TD.
A reason for the pause may arise when looking at the 0.448 winning percentage in Stafford’s career. Usually, the great defenders do not lose more than half of their games, but it is worth noting how abysmal the Lions have been during that time.
Since Stafford’s recruitment in 2009, Lions have finished defense in the top half of the league, scoring three times – the same number of times they have finished defense in the top half in yards.
Their offensive ranks have not been stellar either. Although Stafford benefited from some good pass-capture weapons, there was no racing game of note in Detroit. Since 2009, they have had a player run for 1,000 yards in one season. That was in 2013, when 28-year-old Reggie Bush recorded 1,006 run yards.
The 49ers have an obstacle to overcome. They have been without a Super Bowl win since the 1994 season, and their last trip to the Super Bowl LIV fell short in part because of the quarterback game. Garoppolo was not the reason for the defeat, but it is difficult to imagine what the 49ers’ attack would be like with a quarterback that expands the field more effectively. Stafford would do that while providing some financial relief in a year when the salary cap could start to be an issue for a talented San Francisco club that has a few players to pay.
The 49ers would face a quarterback who figured on paper as an upgrade over Garoppolo. Not to mention that Stafford’s durability has been better over his 12 seasons. The only time he lost out of his first two seasons was when he fractured his back bones and lost eight games in 2019.
Perhaps Shanahan does not see Stafford as a sufficient upgrade over Garoppolo. If the 49ers believe that there is a better and healthier version of Garoppolo to come, or if the recruiting capital needed to acquire Stafford gets too high, maybe they will stay with him. However, given what we’ve seen from names like Matt Ryan in Shanahan’s attack, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t at least kick their tires to see if they can lift Stafford to help them get back to the top of the NFL mountain.