On Saturday morning, reports of of several sources suggested that the Detroit Lions had seven or eight offers at the table for a Matthew Stafford exchange, all including a first round pick. When the day was over, Lions had a much more profitable business: two first round choices, a third round choice and Jared Goff. They accepted the deal and the rest was history.
But what caused such a huge increase in compensation for Detroit? What happened between Saturday morning and around 10 pm Eastern time, when the deal was finally closed with the Los Angeles Rams?
On Monday, a pair of columns on the NFL provided some clarity. First, Pro Football Talk’s Peter King had a great story about the trade and some surprising information about how Detroit decided to offer the Rams and details about what else was out there.
King suggests that Jared Goff was an essential part of the trade and was even part of the Rams’ initial offering: Goff + his choice of the third round (89th overall). He corroborated some other reports that Lions see Goff not only as a bridge quarterback, but as a potential starter for the future.
As director of university scouting for the Rams when Goff was chosen in 2016, Holmes favored him inside the Rams’ recruiting room – and he still does, I was told. I was also told that Campbell liked Goff not only as the bridge quarterback, but also as the Lions quarterback in the future.
Then comes this bomb: For King, the Lions had another offer that included two first-round choices at the table. King does not name the team, however.
Which brings us to another detailed story about trade, this one by Albert Breer from MMQB. Breer tells an interesting story about how Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay ended the night by toasting each other in person, because the two were miraculously together in Los Cabos, Mexico at the time – along with a handful of other NFL players.
However, most notable for Lions fans, Breer looks at some exact offers that Lions had on the table. Here’s what he notes about nine different teams interested in Stafford:
- Rams’ initial offer was a first round choice in 2022, Goff and an additional choice
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The Washington Football Team offered their choice in the first round (19th overall) + a third round
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Carolina Panthers offered her first round choice (8th overall) + a later choice
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Indianapolis Colts offered packages of choices and players, but never the choice of the first round (21st)
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The San Francisco 49ers never made an official offer, but Breer believes that the 12th overall choice would not be on the table
- Broncos discussed an exchange of choices equal to a final choice of the first round.
- Patriots and Bears “checked in”. New England offered a choice in the second round and a player
- The jets also “checked in”. When Lions approached on Saturday, negotiations did not go very far
There are a few things to look at here. First, if Breer’s reports are accurate, it does not appear that Lions actually had eight teams with a choice in the first round at the table. It was more likely around four or five.
Second, there does not seem to be an agreement between Breer and King on this mysterious offer of two first-round picks from another team. It is possible that this team was the Chicago Bears, which would explain why the Lions refused it. However, the Bears have just received a small, fleeting mention in Breer’s story, so even that seems unlikely.
Finally, based on Breer’s reports, it appears that the best offer at the table that the Lions did not choose was the Panthers’ eighth overall choice and more. As noted in Breer’s story, the eighth overall choice is essentially as valuable as two 26th overall choices, according to Jimmy Johnson’s famous choice trading charts. But some argue that getting a choice today is worth more than getting choices in the future. Therefore, the addition of Goff and a choice in the third round almost certainly sealed the deal for the Rams.
Obviously, with stories like this, not everything will be 100% accurate. Teams will spread information to make them look better or, in some cases, to make other teams look worse. Overall, even with all this information out there, it’s hard not to consider the business that Lions have done as being very profitable.