Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Toronto Maple Leafs are finally, finally beginning to realize its full potential.
After defeating Edmonton Oilers 3-0 on Monday night, the team has won six of their last seven games and 17 of 23 overall this season. Toronto now leads the North Canadian division of the NHL by a considerable margin of 7 points, the largest of any favorite division. According to simulations using our Elo ratings, the Leafs are the favorites (75 percent) to beat the North. They also have a 9 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup – tied with the Vegas Golden Knights for the league’s third best chance.
The Leafs are near the top of the Stanley Cup mix
2021 NHL Elo Stanley Cup rankings and odds based on 1,000 simulations from the rest of the regular season schedule and playoffs, through March 2
| Team | Link | 1 week chg | Cup odds | Team | Link | 1 week chg | Cup odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lightning | 1607 | +10 | 23% | 17 | Lubricators | 1502 | -5 | two% | |
| two | Bruins | 1565 | -7 | 10 | 18 | Blackhawks | 1500 | +2 | 1 | |
| 3 | G. Knights | 1555 | +4 | 9 | 19 | Flames | 1497 | -8 | 1 | |
| 4 | Avalanche | 1548 | +1 | 6 | 20 | B. Jackets | 1495 | -7 | <1 | |
| 5 | Maple Leafs | 1547 | +10 | 9 | 21 | guards | 1485 | +3 | <1 | |
| 6 | Ilheus | 1545 | +8 | 4 | 22 | Predators | 1484 | -4 | <1 | |
| 7 | Hurricanes | 1544 | +4 | 7 | 23 | Canucks | 1481 | -two | <1 | |
| 8 | Flyers & Flyers | 1542 | +4 | 5 | 24 | Kings | 1481 | -5 | 1 | |
| 9 | Blues | 1526 | +5 | 4 | 25 | Coyotes | 1478 | -7 | <1 | |
| 10 | Capitals | 1525 | +11 | 3 | 26 | Sharks | 1464 | +4 | <1 | |
| 11 | Jets | 1523 | +3 | 4 | 27 | Devils | 1463 | -7 | <1 | |
| 12 | Wild | 1517 | +3 | 3 | 28 | Ducks | 1440 | -4 | <1 | |
| 13 | Stars | 1516 | -9 | 1 | 29 | Sabers | 1439 | -12 | <1 | |
| 14 | Penguins | 1513 | +1 | two | 30 | Senators | 14: 25h | +5 | <1 | |
| 15 | Panthers | 1508 | -1 | 3 | 31 | red wings | 1388 | +5 | <1 | |
| 16 | Canadiens | 1505 | -3 | two |
In any case, 2021 had a very successful start for a Toronto team that spent the previous seasons trying to reconcile their championship aspirations with their uneven results on the ice. Yes, Stanley Cup conversations are generally … um, premature for a franchise that has the biggest drought of active sport titles (52 seasons and counting). But this season of Leafs may really be gearing up for something special. These 17 wins are tied with 1933-34 and 1934-35 for the franchise’s second best start in 23 games, and Toronto’s simple rating system (SRS) of +0.96 goals per game is also on track to be the second best in the team’s history.
The part that draws the most attention from Toronto’s initial success is undoubtedly a high-powered attack that loses only to defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in scoring per game, producing 3.52 goals per night. Top scorers Mitch Marner (33 points from 23 games) and Auston Matthews (31 out of 20) are among the top five in the league on points so far this season, with Matthews burning the net for 18 goals. Statistically, Matthews and Marner even arrived in the same territory as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of Edmonton as a combination of prolific teammates of all time. While the Oilers duo remains the best undisputed tandem in the game today, Matthews-Marner ’21 is on track to be the NHL’s 13th best offensive duo since 1942-43 (the dawn of the Original Six era), according to goals above the replacement.
Matthews and Marner look like an all-time duo
Highest harmonic average of goals adjusted to the above substitution schedule (GAR) for the two main offensive players of an NHL team, 1943-2021
| Year | Team | Player 1 | O. GAR | Player 2 | O. GAR | Prejudice. To mean | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1996 | Penguins | Lemieux | 29.1 | Jagr | 25.6 | 27.2 |
| two | 1971 | Bruins | Orr | 27.1 | Esposito | 26.5 | 26.8 |
| 3 | 1984 | Lubricators | Gretzky | 31.4 | Coffey | 21.5 | 25.5 |
| 4 | 1974 | Bruins | Esposito | 26.1 | Orr | 24.9 | 25.5 |
| 5 | 1986 | Lubricators | Gretzky | 26.9 | Coffey | 23.9 | 25.3 |
| 6 | 1972 | Bruins | Orr | 25.5 | Esposito | 24.9 | 25.2 |
| 7 | 1985 | Lubricators | Gretzky | 29.9 | Kurri | 20.9 | 24.6 |
| 8 | 1989 | Penguins | Lemieux | 31.9 | Coffey | 19.4 | 24.1 |
| 9 | 1989 | Kings | Gretzky | 23.8 | Nicholls | 23.4 | 23.6 |
| 10 | 1975 | Bruins | Orr | 27.1 | Esposito | 20.2 | 23.1 |
| 11 | 2021 | Lubricators | McDavid | 25.5 | Draisaitl | 19.5 | 22.1 |
| 12 | 2020 | Lubricators | Draisaitl | 23.4 | McDavid | 20.0 | 21.6 |
| 13 | 2021 | Maple Leafs | Matthews | 24.8 | Marner | 18.9 | 21.5 |
| 14 | 2009 | Capitals | Ovechkin | 23.3 | Green | 19.5 | 21.2 |
| 15 | 2010 | Capitals | Ovechkin | 24.4 | Backstrom | 18.4 | 21.0 |
| 16 | 2003 | Canucks | Naslund | 22.0 | Bertuzzi | 19.9 | 20.9 |
| 17 | 1993 | Sabers | Mogilny | 21.1 | LaFontaine | 20.5 | 20.8 |
| 18 | 2019 | Lightning | Kucherov | 23.1 | Stamkos | 18.8 | 20.7 |
| 19 | 1983 | Lubricators | Gretzky | 29.0 | Coffey | 16.0 | 20.6 |
| 20 | 1987 | Lubricators | Gretzky | 27.4 | Kurri | 16.3 | 20.4 |
In a way, Marner and Matthews’ great scoring power also obscured just how impressive the rest of Toronto’s attack was. Strikers John Tavares and William Nylander also average almost one point per game (both have 19 points in 23 disputes), and D-man Morgan Rielly is tied for fifth among the blueliners with 18 points. Meanwhile, veterans Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton have gone back in time with their best performances in years. Chasing the championship that eluded him throughout his career, the 41-year-old “Jumbo Joe” scored 10 points from 11 games and – when healthy – is seeing time on the ice at the Leafs’ top line with Matthews and Marner (whose Combined 46 years old is just a little older than Thornton himself). Even with Matthews marginalized In the last games with a wrist injury, the Leafs were able to score 3.5 goals per game, a number very much in line with their normal production.
But while impressive, none of this is exactly new. The Leafs exhibited an electrifying offensive talent in the past few seasons, placing third in goals per game last season and fourth in 2018-19 and 2017-18. The true ingredients that are missing from the Toronto’s Cup recipe traditionally involve preventing other goal team – an area that almost completely broke last season, with Toronto ranking 26th in the lowest number of goals allowed per game, 18th in defense percentage and 23rd in the lowest chance of goals allowed.
These weaknesses have changed widely this year, however. General manager Kyle Dubas made a concerted effort throughout the off-season to reinforce the team’s defense like a sieve, adding TJ Brodie, Zach Bogosian and Mikko Lehtonen on the blue line to go with remnants like Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl. He also reacquired goalkeeper Michael Hutchinson as a net safe to spell Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell. The results were undeniable in the second season of coach Sheldon Keefe behind the Toronto bench: the Leafs are now fourth in the fewest goals allowed, fourth in percentage of saves (despite Andersen and Campbell’s injuries) and eighth in fewer chances of goals allowed per game. With 5 to 5 with the score closed, Toronto occupies the 10th place in percentage of Corsi – a possession proxy that measures the participation of a team in all attempts to kick in the game – and the eighth in the goal differential expected every 60 minutes (meaning the quality of shots is better than the quality of those they allow at the other end).
In other words, in almost any measure, the Leafs have significantly improved in the areas of the game that have delayed their hopes for the World Cup in recent years.
This was especially apparent in the first two matches of his three road games against Edmonton this week. As mentioned, the Oilers have one of the most powerful offensive attacks in the league, led by the historic pair of McDavid and Draisaitl. They were also one of the hottest NHL teams entering the series, winning five in a row and 11 of 13 before taking on Toronto. But the Leafs defeated Edmonton’s double star, keeping them with zero points and a combined rating of -5, and as a result they eliminated the Oilers in consecutive games by a combined score of 7-0.
The lack of Matthews in both competitions – and staying with Hutchinson on the net for Game 2 – that pair of wins over Edmonton was perhaps the best validation that these are not just the same old Toronto Maple Leafs. This may even signal that this is the year that the team finally abandons its reputation for disappointment in the playoffs (it has not won a series of playoffs since 2004) and low overall performance.
Of course, there is still plenty of time for the Leafs to return to their normal habits. Consider the 2018-19 season as a point of comparison: fresh from the great addition of Tavares, a native of the Toronto area, the team started the year by winning 26 of their first 38 games and looked like a strong choice to challenge the powerful Lightning bolts coming out of the Eastern Conference. But a slowdown in the second half, culminating in a total blackout on the straight – four wins in the final 14 games of the regular season – foreshadowed a seven game loss in the first round against the Boston Bruins, part of the franchise’s ongoing three-game losing streak (with four defeats in his last five chances) in game 7 of the playoff.
But that team has had defensive flaws in ways that this year’s version seems to have overcome – at least, so far. He also lacked as much offensive first-rate firepower, with younger versions of Matthews and Marner who had not yet reached their current heights. The Leafs hope that the 2021 edition, in contrast, will have the right mix of ingredients to continue playing well during the regular season and even the playoffs. And, for the first time, those hopes don’t seem as far-fetched as usual.