Two years ago, the Trump administration took a bold stance in declaring that it no longer recognized Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president.
Instead, the United States – followed by more than a dozen countries, including the European Union – supported Juan Guaido, a little-known opposition leader, as the South American country’s interim leader.
This decision sparked a huge stir when thousands of Venezuelans invaded the streets of Caracas, calling for Maduro’s resignation.
However, the long-awaited fall of the socialist leader never really happened and, two years later, Maduro remains firmly inside the Presidential Palace, presiding over a serious humanitarian crisis and vertiginous economic degradation.
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Evan Ellis, a research professor of Latin American students at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the US Army War College, told Fox News that Maduro’s control over Venezuela was never fully released because, while few really supported the war leader, “many they were complicit in the criminal activities that had become the vital force of the regime. “
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido speaks at a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, December 5, 2020, the day before parliamentary elections. (AP Photo / Matias Delacroix)
“Guaido and his team, and the Trump administration, deserve credit for coordinating an extensive international diplomatic effort in extraordinary circumstances, which has resulted in 57 countries in Latin America, Europe and elsewhere, recognizing its legitimacy,” said Ellis. “Guaido and his government also deserve extraordinary credit, because without control over Venezuelan territory or resources, they not only engaged in Venezuela against constant implicit and explicit threats from the Maduro regime, but also coordinated a wide-ranging international diplomacy.”
Earlier this year, Maduro secured even stronger control of power – taking back control of the Venezuelan Congress, the only wing he did not dominate after the December elections. The vote was widely dismissed by the opposition and condemned as a mockery.
Some analysts say the defeat of the opposition illuminates Guido’s lack of agreement in appealing to an exhausted and disappointed majority in Venezuela.
In addition, despite initial hopes by US officials and anti-Maduro activists that senior military officials would firmly abandon their loyalty to the socialist leader, he maintains strong control over the armed forces.
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Sources in Venezuela told Fox News that Maduro uses the military to “control the distribution of food and some imports and customs”, making the hungry population even more adherent to the socialist command.
“The government (Trump) spoke harshly, but it was never supported by a robust plan. There was this false belief that if we snorted and snorted, the Venezuelan regime would fall. In fact, we needed a more sustained strategy and engagement,” he said. argued Brett Bruen, a former director of global commitments at the White House. “Maduro strengthened his grip on power last year. COVID-19 helped. He was able to justify repressive measures as in the service of public health. Russia and China continued to strengthen their position, while the West was distracted by the pandemic.”
A government supporter known as “Caperucita”, or Little Red Riding Hood, holds a photo of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. (AP Photo / Matias Delacroix)
While the United States has maintained a much more fervent stance against the “illegitimate” leader, there are some signs that Washington-led resistance may be beginning to fragment.
In a statement last week, the EU promised to continue its “engagement” with opposition leader Guaido, not referring to him as the “interim president” as it did previously. An EU official insisted to the Associated Press that there was no change in the union’s stance
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has declared that the United States still considers the Maduro regime to be “illegitimate” and “will not recognize him or his pronouncements”.
“President Guaidó and the (former) National Assembly are the only democratic representatives of the Venezuelan people recognized by the international community and must be freed from Maduro’s harassment, threats, persecutions and other abuses,” he said.
The United States, the EU and the Lima Group, a multilateral body established to oversee a peaceful power transition in Venezuela, have jointly transmitted calls for new democratic elections in Venezuela.
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However, now with apparent fragmented opposition, Maduro is free to pursue so-called “hate” charges against those considered to be government dissidents, further raising concerns that defiant voices and truth to power are facilitated in the authoritarian country.
According to a Caracas-based analyst, who asked for anonymity for security reasons, the heavy economic sanctions imposed on the Maduro regime by the United States in recent years have been useful – but their effectiveness has declined.
“The sanctions on PDVSA and the handing over control of Venezuelan government assets in the United States to the Guaidó government financially strangled the Maduro regime, but it was not enough,” explained the source. “What was missing was a coordinated effort between the Trump administration and the rest of the international community involved. The European Union has decided not to embark on a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy, instead of just issuing personal sanctions. So Maduro is finally finding ways to avoid crippling U.S. sanctions. “
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami and Cilia Flores participate in a military exercise at the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas, Venezuela, February 24, 2018. REUTERS / Marco Bello – RC17D57B06D0
A U.S. oil executive operating in a gas-rich nation also told Fox News that the sanctions were effective at first, with oil production going from approximately 1.2 million barrels to the average level of 400,000 that we see currently.
“However, the sanctions are ‘a wasteful asset’ and have had more unintended consequences, most pressingly, an increase in illegal mining and the drug trade that now accounts for most of the money that enters the country and creates more regional instability . “In addition to allowing other foreign actors to find ways to escape the sanctions and ultimately profit from those sanctions.”
A US-based executive, who was not authorized to speak officially, said the US potentially “overestimated” the opposition’s credibility and strength with the Venezuelan opposition, as well as Maduro’s ability to keep the “military under control aside.”
Several sources pointed out that the combined support of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Cuba proved to be sufficient to keep Maduro afloat.
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The coronavirus pandemic attack paved the way for Maduro to tighten his grip on the increasingly impoverished nation through forced blockades and limited movement.
Officially, the country has registered just over 1,000 deaths induced by the global pandemic – but most experts say that number is much higher due to limited health resources and a lack of tests.
“The humanitarian situation is still critical and getting worse. The minimum wage is now $ 1.10 a month. COVID-19 has slowed migration for a while, but now it is starting again,” said a source in Caracas. “UN agencies estimate that 2.4 million Venezuelans will flee the country in 2021, even with COVID-19 still lurking. Politically, the opposition is again in disarray, with multiple factions fighting to direct the fight against Maduro.”
Houston, Texas, USA – February 23, 2014: Venezuelan citizens in Houston protest against the Venezuelan government and its perceived anti-democratic policies.
Johan Obdola, president of the Global Intelligence Organization (IOSI), based in Canada, pointed out that 90% of the population lives in a critical state of survival.
“[About] 60% of Venezuelans are registered with severe cases of malnutrition and mental health problems. In the cities and towns of Venezuela, it is more critical where the majority of the population is, it is normal that in a week only eat rice, butter or pasta “, he said.” The scenario is that the country’s devastated economy is now moving mainly from money drug trafficking. Maduro allowed the military sector to operate in the oil sales business in Venezuela. They are also profiting from human trafficking and the sexual exploitation of women and children ”.
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However, Ellis stressed that, as it stands, the Maduro government actually controls very little beyond Caracas.
“Maduro himself has little power; their survival reflects that those in their armed forces and in the government with the power to act, are sufficiently involved in years of corruption in the Chavista system, ”he said. “At the moment, they fear the consequences of trying to replace him with a democratic government – or a more competent authoritarian – more than they fear the consequences of their bad policies.”
It remains to be seen whether the next Biden administration will drastically alter the current approach.
“It doesn’t work. It’s nice to see them having problems and high prices, but that’s it,” added César Oporeza, a political commentator from Caracas. “The only solution will be by lethal force. They are criminals. Period.”